晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 宏观驱动减弱 逢高空配为主 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 2 月 2 日 逻辑：宏观方面，美联储下任主席沃什偏鹰派，引发贵金属以及有色商品出现阶段性回落； 国内方面，1 月份 PMI 数据再度回落至荣枯线以下，国内经济复苏呈现脉冲式特征，扩大内需 政策仍需继续发力。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：当前外矿发运整体仍处于发运淡季，本期周度发运量小幅环比回升，根据季节 性规律，在 2 月中旬之前，外矿发运将保持环比走弱态势，但当前外矿发运水平高于近五年同 期且远高于去年同期水平，主因是外矿发运稳定性较高且去年同期澳洲受飓风影响导致发运基 数偏低；国产矿供给同样处于淡季，整体看，供给端步入季节性环比收缩阶段，但供给端支撑 力度提升则需要出现超预期下滑。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求小幅回落但高于去年同期，主因是国内钢厂检修后常规复产增多，但 钢材价格走弱导致钢厂利润水平环比回落，且钢厂盈利水平低于去年同期，终端需求处于季节 性淡季，预计短期铁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contradiction of finished steel products is that the blast furnace operating rate remains high due to good steel mill profits, but terminal demand gradually shrinks before the Spring Festival, leading to a lack of trading volume and inventory accumulation. Constrained by cost support and policies, the prices are in a range - bound state [1]. - The profit of electric arc furnaces continues to weaken, and there are signs of marginal weakening in blast furnace profits. In the short - term, steel mills may continue to increase production, and the possibility of significant production cuts is low [1]. - The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils will weaken seasonally, and the inventory of rebar will continue to accumulate, while hot - rolled coil inventory may shift from de - stocking to stocking [1]. - The steel mill's iron ore inventory replenishment is accelerating and may end next week. Iron ore port inventory is at a record high, but high blast furnace operating rates and potential increases in molten iron production will support iron ore prices. Coking coal prices are supported by seasonal weakening of mine operating rates but are pressured by high port inventory [2]. - Steel prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 may be between 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 may be between 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: Electric arc furnace profits weaken due to the narrowing of the iron - scrap price difference, while blast furnace profits remain stable. Steel mills may continue to increase production in the short - term [1]. - Demand side: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils weakens seasonally. Rebar inventory will continue to accumulate, and hot - rolled coil inventory may shift from de - stocking to stocking [1]. - Raw material side: Iron ore inventory replenishment by steel mills is accelerating and may end soon. Iron ore port inventory is at a record high. Coking coal prices are supported by seasonal weakening of mine operating rates but are pressured by high port inventory [2]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic: Steel mill profits are good, providing opportunities for hedging. Iron ore port inventory is rising, and the replenishment logic is weakening. Terminal demand is shrinking, and high blast furnace operating rates support iron ore prices. The nomination of the new Fed Chairman may impact market liquidity [6]. - Long - term trading expectations include anti - involution expectations for steel production cuts, demand support from major projects in the first year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, and export controls [6]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 is 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton [7]. - Month - spread strategy: Wait and see. Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Wait and see [7]. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits, and sell call options to reduce costs [7]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low inventory, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options to collect premiums [7]. 1.4 Data Overview - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices: Most prices decreased slightly compared to the previous week [8]. - Hot - rolled coil overseas data: Most export and import prices increased slightly compared to the previous week [9]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - Bullish information: Good steel mill profits and high operating rates support iron ore prices. Hot - rolled coil inventory is in a de - stocking trend. Coking coal operating rates are seasonally weak, supporting coking coal prices [9][10]. - Bearish information: No relevant information provided. - Spot trading information: No relevant information provided. 2.2 Next - week Important Event Concerns - Next Monday: The US will release the January manufacturing PMI. - Next Wednesday: The US will release the January ADP employment figures. - Next Thursday: The US will release the weekly initial jobless claims. - Next Friday: The US will release the January unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls [20]. Chapter 3:盘面解读 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - Basis: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts shows seasonal changes [17]. - Coil - rebar spread: The coil - rebar spread shows seasonal changes in different regions and contracts [19]. - Term structure: The term structure of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and coking coal futures shows different price differences at different time points [24][25]. - Month - spread structure: The month - spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures shows seasonal changes [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The profits of different steel products, including long - process rebar, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate, show different trends in the short - term and with raw material lag [36]. - The profit ratios of different steel products and the ratio of steel to iron ore and coke show seasonal changes [47]. 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - The estimated export profit of hot - rolled coils shows seasonal changes and has a leading relationship with export volume [52]. - The price differences between overseas and domestic hot - rolled coils, and the relationship between export profit and export orders are analyzed [57][59]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance and Forecast 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative consumption and production of five major steel products show different year - on - year changes, and inventory is at a certain level [76]. 5.2 Supply Side and Forecast - The supply of steel is affected by factors such as molten iron and scrap steel consumption, steel mill profitability, production capacity, and maintenance [80]. 5.3 Demand Side and Forecast - The demand for steel, including crude steel apparent demand, consumption of five major steel products, and consumption of different types of steel, shows seasonal trends [90].

Core Insights - The European stock market started strong in 2026, with major indices, including Germany's benchmark index, reaching historical highs [2][20]. Seasonal Trends - January is typically a favorable month for the European stock market, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index showing an average increase of 0.26% over the past 20 years and a 56% probability of closing higher [3][20]. - The DAX index averages a 0.44% increase in January with a 57% chance of closing higher, while the CAC40 index shows a 0.58% average increase and a 57% closing probability [3][20]. - The Italian FTSE MIB index outperforms with an average increase of 1.23% and a 62% probability of closing higher [3][20]. - Historical data indicates that April and November often yield stronger and more stable returns compared to January [4]. Recent Performance - January 2023 and January 2025 were noted as the best-performing January periods for several European indices on record [5][21]. - The Euro Stoxx 50 index surged by 9.75% in January 2023 and by 7.98% in January 2025, while the DAX index rose by 8.65% in January 2023 and further increased by 9.16% in January 2025, reflecting renewed investor enthusiasm for cyclical and industrial stocks [6][22]. Notable Companies - **Alten SA**: This French engineering consulting firm has shown a significant seasonal increase in January, with an average rise of 4.13% over the past 20 years and a 71% chance of closing higher. In January 2023, the stock rose by 20.46% [10][11][26]. - **Accor SA**: The French hotel group has an average January increase of 4.3% and a 67% chance of closing higher. In January 2023, it experienced a notable surge of 28.1% due to a rebound in travel demand [13][27]. - **Sopra Steria Group SA**: This French IT consulting firm has a stable January performance with an average increase of 5.75% and a 76% chance of closing higher. It recorded a 23.25% rise in January 2012 [14][28]. - **Sartorius AG**: The German life sciences equipment supplier has an average January increase of 5.85% and a 67% chance of closing higher. In January 2025, the stock surged by 30.11% [15][29]. - **Rheinmetall AG**: The German defense giant has an average January increase of 7.74% with a remarkable 90% chance of closing higher. It has achieved double-digit increases in January for the past four years [16][30]. Significance of Seasonal Patterns - Seasonal patterns reflect investor behavior and market expectations, but they are not predictive tools. Major macroeconomic shocks or geopolitical events can disrupt these trends [17][31].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to end December 2025 with an "11 consecutive days of gains," primarily benefiting from a recovery in risk appetite and increased volume in ETFs, particularly the CSI A500 [1][5] - The Hong Kong stock market showed strength during the New Year holiday, attributed to southbound capital inflows, RMB appreciation, and intensive catalysts in the semiconductor industry, which may positively influence A-shares after the New Year [1][5] - The liquidity environment before the Spring Festival is likely to remain favorable, with the market expected to continue its upward trend, although some volatility may occur in January [1][5] Group 2 - Seasonal trends suggest that February has the highest probability of market gains, with historical data from 2008 to 2025 indicating that February, July, and November are the months with the highest likelihood of market increases, often coinciding with policy changes [2][6] - In years where the Spring Festival occurs later, the market may perform better before the holiday compared to after, contrasting with earlier years where pre-holiday performance tends to be weaker [3][7] - Historical data shows that significant fluctuations in Q1 are often influenced by major economic turning points or substantial changes in household financing, with examples from various years illustrating the impact of policy and economic conditions on market performance [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver are experiencing volatility as traders assess the potential market impact of the upcoming commodity benchmark index weight adjustments, which may lead to significant selling pressure from passive funds [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 2, gold initially rose by 1.9% but closed with a modest gain of 0.2% at $4,328.35 per ounce, while silver peaked at a 4% increase before settling at $72.61 per ounce, up 1.3% [1]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight reset will result in over $6 billion in gold futures and more than $5 billion in silver futures being sold during a five-day roll period from January 8 to 14 [4][5]. Group 2: Selling Pressure - TD Securities warns that approximately 13% of the total open interest in the Comex silver market will be sold in the next two weeks, potentially leading to a significant downward price revaluation [4]. - The weight adjustment will see silver futures' index weight drop from 9% to just below 4% by 2026, necessitating the liquidation of over $5 billion in positions [5]. Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Predictions - Historical data indicates that gold prices typically rise by an average of 4.6% during the last ten trading days of the year and the first twenty trading days of the new year, with an 80% probability of price increases [6]. - Despite the seasonal bullish trend, the substantial technical selling pressure from index rebalancing may counteract these seasonal gains, particularly for silver, which faces greater selling pressure than in previous years [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Major investment banks remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, anticipating further price increases, especially with expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [7]. - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce, citing factors such as central bank purchases, loose monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions as key drivers [7].

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated strong year-end rally in the U.S. stock market, often referred to as the "Christmas rally," is facing uncertainty due to fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing concerns about an "AI bubble" impacting investor sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - Historically, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 1.5% increase in December since 1945, making it the second-best month after November [1]. - Despite a significant rebound earlier in the week, the S&P 500 index is still projected to decline by 2% this month, marking its first monthly drop since April [2]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, is currently above 20, indicating increased selling pressure in the market [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors are showing caution, with demand for options to hedge against declines in major tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft reaching its highest level since August 2024 [2]. - Analysts suggest that while seasonal trends typically favor market gains, they are not guaranteed, and current market conditions are being weighed against historical performance [2][3]. - The sentiment among investors is mixed, with some strategists urging caution due to uncertainties surrounding AI investments and potential upward risks in yields [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are being closely monitored, with a 70% probability of a cut in the upcoming December meeting [4]. - Concerns about a potential bubble in AI-related investments are growing, particularly following Nvidia's strong earnings report, which led to significant market volatility rather than alleviating fears [4]. - Long-term bullish sentiment remains, with predictions for the S&P 500 index to reach 7400 points by the end of 2026, driven by strong performances from major tech stocks [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley's optimistic forecast suggests the S&P 500 index could rise to 7800 points within the next year, indicating an 18% upside from current levels [6]. - Deutsche Bank is even more bullish, predicting the index could surpass 8000 points by the end of 2026, supported by expected acceleration in U.S. economic growth and broader earnings expansion beyond large-cap tech stocks [6].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index remains in a solid upward trend as it enters the final weeks of the year, but market breadth deterioration and historical comparisons suggest a potential pullback of up to 10% [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The S&P 500 index is maintaining its upward channel and finding support at the 50-day moving average, currently near 6700 points [1] - If this support holds, favorable seasonal factors in November and December could push the S&P 500 to 7040 points (+3%) or 7115 points (+4%) [1] - A strong year-end pattern similar to 1980 could lead to an increase of approximately 6.5%, potentially nearing 7280 points [1] Group 2: Tactical Positioning - The company maintains a bullish stance after achieving the summer target of 6625 points and continues to recommend hedging profits when the index reaches new highs [1] - Recent volatility in October and early November has reinforced the value of tactical hedging until the breadth of the upward trend expands [1] Group 3: Warning Signals - Despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs, several breadth indicators have shown weakness, with an increase in stocks hitting 52-week lows and a decrease in stocks trading above major moving averages [1] - The market's upward momentum is noticeably narrowing, and a drop below the 50-day moving average could increase the likelihood of a pullback [1] - Key support levels are identified at 6631 points, the 6570-6551 point range, 6360 points, and 6200 points [1] Group 4: Seasonal Patterns and Sector Rotation - Historical seasonal trends support an "upward" movement, particularly in the first year of the presidential cycle, where the index has a 92% probability of rising in November and December if it remains up through October, with an average gain of nearly 5% [2] - To achieve this pattern, leading sectors must rotate into those that typically perform well at year-end, such as consumer discretionary, healthcare, industrials, and materials [2] - The technology sector historically lags in December, with only a 54% probability of rising [2] - The upward trend of the S&P 500 remains intact, but narrow participation and historical references indicate ongoing downside risks [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to show positive trends by the end of the year, driven by historical seasonal patterns rather than Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased significantly from approximately 90% to 72% following comments from Fed Chair Powell [1] - Historical data indicates that U.S. Treasury prices peak in late autumn and reach their lowest point in spring, which may mitigate investor disappointment regarding Fed policy [1][2] Seasonal Patterns - The seasonal characteristics of the U.S. Treasury market originated in the early 1970s when the Treasury began selling bonds through public auctions [2] - A study published in 2015 noted that prior to the market pricing mechanism, Treasury yields showed little seasonal variation, but the introduction of a predictable auction schedule established a stable seasonal pattern [2] - December's average return for U.S. Treasuries is generally modest, but when combined with November's returns, it surpasses the performance of any other two-month combination throughout the year [2] Risk Aversion Mechanism - Researchers analyzed various hypotheses to explain the seasonal patterns in Treasury yields, ultimately identifying seasonal changes in investor risk aversion as the primary driver [3] - The study concluded that as investor sentiment declines in the autumn, risk aversion increases, leading to higher Treasury prices and thus higher actual yields during this period [4] - Conversely, as investor sentiment improves in the spring, risk aversion decreases, resulting in lower Treasury prices and lower actual yields [4]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector demonstrates resilience amid a declining market, with several banks, including Agricultural Bank of China, reaching historical highs, indicating strong investor interest in bank stocks as a safe haven [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Agricultural Bank of China saw an intraday increase of over 2%, closing up 1.74%, while other banks like Xiamen Bank and Qingdao Bank also rose by more than 2% [1]. - The Bank ETF (512800) experienced a brief intraday surge of nearly 1% before closing down 0.12%, maintaining a seven-day upward trend with a total trading volume of 2.922 billion yuan [1][3]. - The Bank ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with a net inflow of 4.854 billion yuan over the past seven days, bringing its total size close to 20 billion yuan, setting a new historical high [5]. Group 2: Investment Drivers - The banking sector is benefiting from multiple catalysts, including heightened market risk aversion, leading investors to seek stable, high-dividend bank stocks [7]. - Continued government policies aimed at economic stability are fostering expectations of recovery, which directly benefits the banking sector due to its close ties to economic cycles [7]. - Historical trends suggest that the fourth quarter is typically a favorable period for undervalued, high-dividend large-cap stocks, potentially enhancing the appeal of bank stocks [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the banking sector will become a key focus in the current market phase, with defensive asset allocation driving demand for bank stocks [8]. - The stability of bank dividends and the recent price corrections have improved the attractiveness of bank stocks, likely drawing in risk-averse capital [8]. - The Bank ETF (512800) and its associated funds are effective tools for tracking the overall performance of the banking sector, comprising 42 listed banks in A-shares [8].

Group 1 - The banking sector continues to show strong performance, with Agricultural Bank of China rising over 2% to reach a new historical high, and the top bank ETF (512800) experiencing a seven-day price increase, with real-time trading volume exceeding 800 million yuan [1] - Significant capital inflow into the banking sector is noted, with the bank ETF (512800) attracting 880 million yuan in a single day and over 4.5 billion yuan in the last five days, pushing its total scale close to 20 billion yuan [1] - Analysts attribute the recent rise in bank stocks to multiple factors, including increased market risk aversion, policy expectations, and seasonal trends, with the fourth quarter historically being a favorable period for undervalued, high-dividend large-cap stocks [1] Group 2 - The bank ETF (512800) and its linked fund (240019) passively track the CSI Bank Index, encompassing 42 listed banks in A-shares, making it an efficient investment tool for tracking the overall banking sector [2] - The bank ETF (512800) is the largest and most liquid among the 10 bank ETFs in A-shares, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 600 million yuan this year [2]