1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, iron ore futures closed lower, and the night - session also ended down [1] - The supply of five major steel products this week was 7.9406 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 258,400 tons or 3.2%; the total inventory was 14.4273 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0498 million tons or 7.8%; the weekly apparent consumption was 6.8908 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.4% [1] - This week, the production of rebar, hot - rolled coils and the five major steel products decreased, while the inventory increased, which was in line with expectations. The shipment and arrival of iron ore this period both decreased, as did the port iron ore trading volume. The daily output of molten iron this week was 2.3049 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 191,000 tons [1] - It is expected that the 750 level will still be a strong support for the iron ore main contract before the holiday. Be vigilant against possible concentrated liquidation on the last trading day, which may trigger an unexpected market. It is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore futures closed lower on Thursday and in the night - session [1] Important Information - The National Energy Administration stated that in 2025, the new installed capacity of wind and solar power generation in China exceeded 430 million kilowatts, setting a new historical high [1] Market Logic - This week, the production of rebar, hot - rolled coils and the five major steel products decreased, while the inventory increased, which was in line with expectations. The shipment and arrival of iron ore this period both decreased, and the port iron ore trading volume also declined. The daily output of molten iron this week was 2.3049 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 191,000 tons [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected that the 750 level will still be a strong support for the iron ore main contract before the holiday. Be vigilant against possible concentrated liquidation on the last trading day, which may trigger an unexpected market. It is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the holiday [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For both rebar and hot - rolled coil, the combination of weak current situation and weakening expectations may lead to a slight decline in steel prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Rebar (RB2601): Yesterday's closing price was 3,061 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.81%); trading volume was 1,158,107 lots, open interest was 1,991,462 lots, with an increase of 38,714 lots [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): Yesterday's closing price was 3,241 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.70%); trading volume was 532,924 lots, open interest was 1,451,729 lots, with an increase of 29,205 lots [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - Rebar: Prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; Tangshan billet price remained unchanged at 2,940 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: - The basis of RB2601 was 149 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis of HC2601 was 49 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - RB2601 - RB2605 spread was - 53, up 3; HC2601 - HC2605 spread was 154, up 58; HC2601 - RB2601 spread was 180, up 2; HC2605 - RB2605 spread was 134, down 1; the spot coil - rebar spread was - 16, down 20 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Production Data in Early October 2025**: Key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons (a 7.5% daily increase); 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons (a 3.2% daily increase); 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons (an 8.5% daily decrease). It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.51 million tons (a 7.5% increase), pig iron was 2.25 million tons (a 3.2% increase), and steel was 4.07 million tons (a 1.7% decrease) [3] - **Inventory Data in Early October 2025**: The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.88 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons (8.2%) from the previous ten - day period, 3.51 million tons (28.4%) from the beginning of the year, 60,000 tons (0.6%) from the same ten - day period of last month, 1.15 million tons (7.8%) from the same ten - day period of last year, and a decrease of 480,000 tons (2.9%) from the same ten - day period of the year before last [3] - **Import and Export Data in August 2025**: China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% monthly decrease, with an average export price of 698.0 US dollars/ton, basically the same as the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative export was 77.49 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, with an average export price of 699.1 US dollars/ton, a 10.1% year - on - year decrease. In August, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% monthly increase, with an average import price of 1,653.0 US dollars/ton, an 8.4% monthly decrease. From January to August, the cumulative import was 3.977 million tons, a 14.1% year - on - year decrease, with an average import price of 1,697.7 US dollars/ton, a 1.5% year - on - year increase [3] - **Weekly Data on October 8**: - Production: Rebar production decreased by 36,200 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 14,000 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons [3] - Total inventory: Rebar inventory increased by 239,600 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons [3] - Apparent demand: Rebar apparent demand decreased by 950,600 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]