2025 年 12 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 螺纹钢：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间 震荡 热轧卷板：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间 震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,130 | 22 | 0.71 | | | HC2605 | 3,287 | 18 | 0.55 | | 期 货 | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 1,051,146 | 1,530,792 | -3,632 | | | HC2605 | 511,982 | 1,276,297 | 43,907 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 33 ...

Group 1: Spot Market - The spot market shows an upward trend with weakening basis; Tangshan steel billet increased by 30 to 3040 yuan, Shanghai rebar up by 20 to 3130 yuan/ton, and hot rolled coil up by 10 to 3280 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Costs and Profits - On the cost side, coking coal prices are weak while iron ore prices remain resilient; current profit rankings from high to low are cold rolled > steel billet > rebar > hot rolled coil [1] Group 3: Supply - From January to November, iron element production increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with an expected annual growth of 4%; pig iron production continues to decline, down by 30,000 tons to 2.29 million tons; seasonal production cuts due to high steel inventory are evident, with total production of five major materials down by 80,000 tons to 7.98 million tons, below the demand of 8.35 million tons [1] - Rebar production decreased by 30,000 tons to 1.817 million tons, below the demand of 2.08 million tons; hot rolled coil production decreased significantly by 168,000 tons to 2.92 million tons, also below the demand of 2.98 million tons [1] Group 4: Demand - Demand shows a clear seasonal decline; December demand is 8.46 million tons, down from 8.75 million tons in November and significantly lower than the same period last year [1] - The demand for five major materials decreased by 4.5% to 8.35 million tons, with rebar demand down by 56,000 tons to 2.08 million tons and hot rolled coil demand down by 137,000 tons to 2.983 million tons [1] Group 5: Inventory - Steel mills are slowing down production cuts, but inventory reduction remains strong, primarily driven by rebar; total inventory of five major materials decreased by 370,000 tons to 12.95 million tons, with rebar down by 270,000 tons to 4.52 million tons and hot rolled coil down by 64,000 tons to 3.91 million tons [2] Group 6: Market Outlook - Steel prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a range; the demand decline is suppressing price increases, but production cuts provide bottom support; focus on rebar and hot rolled coil price ranges of 3000-3200 yuan and 3200-3350 yuan respectively [3] - Recent stabilization in steel prices is supported by the halt in coking coal price declines; however, weak demand limits upward elasticity for next year, suggesting a cautious approach [3]