Group 1 - The steel spot market has shown a slight rebound, with major futures contracts primarily increasing, including rebar and hot-rolled coils rising by approximately 1% and iron ore by around 2% [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the resumption of government bond trading and measures to stabilize the financial market, which is expected to boost steel demand and market confidence [2][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is 97.3%, which is anticipated to positively impact market sentiment and steel prices [2] Group 2 - Over 20 cities in China have introduced policies to stimulate housing demand, which is expected to support the real estate market and consequently increase steel demand [3] - The domestic steel market has shown a slight recovery today, with overall transaction volumes remaining average [4] - A total of 21 steel mills have raised their construction material prices, indicating a positive trend in pricing [8] Group 3 - The iron ore market has seen a slight increase in prices due to a decrease in port inventories and a favorable macroeconomic environment, despite a weak demand-supply balance [9] - The coke market remains stable, with supply and demand both showing weakness but slightly leaning towards tightness, leading to stable prices [9] - Scrap steel prices have shown a slight increase, supported by tight supply conditions, although demand remains weak [9] Group 4 - The current price of Tangshan billet is reported at 2960 yuan per ton, with expectations for stability in the market [10] - Overall, the market sentiment is warming due to multiple favorable factors, including macroeconomic support and steel mill price adjustments, although weak terminal demand and high inventory levels continue to pose challenges [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market was affected by weakening demand expectations this week, causing the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils to decline. Overseas macro expectations have turned weak. Supply-wise, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of steel mills decreased slightly, with a significant drop in hot-rolled coil production and a slight increase in rebar production. Although some mills' willingness to start production has decreased, profits remain high, so production will not decline trend - wise. Demand-wise, terminal transactions were weakly stable, and with the approaching off - season, demand expectations are turning pessimistic. Inventory-wise, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly. Overall, the market sentiment is weak, and with the approaching off - season, concerns about negative feedback have increased, and the market may maintain a weak trend [6][48]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Market Trends - **Futures Market**: The main rebar 2510 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 3046 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a trading volume of 6.27 million lots and an open interest of 2.1582 million lots, an increase of 0.0852 million lots. The main hot - rolled coil 2510 contract also fluctuated weakly, closing at 3189 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a trading volume of 2.1706 million lots and an open interest of 1.3683 million lots, an increase of 0.0103 million lots [2][10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of rebar in major regions across the country generally declined. In Beijing, rebar (theoretical weight) dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it dropped 30 yuan/ton to 3180 yuan/ton; in Guangzhou, rebar (weighed) dropped 90 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in major regions also generally declined. In Tianjin, hot - rolled coils dropped 20 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it dropped 30 yuan/ton to 3260 yuan/ton; in Guangzhou, it dropped 40 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton [12]. 1.2 Spread Changes - **Futures - Spot Spread**: The basis of the main rebar 2510 contract compared to the Shanghai rebar spot was 134.0 yuan/ton, a change of +6 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil 2510 contract compared to the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot was 71.0 yuan/ton, a change of +7 yuan/ton from the previous week [15][16]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between rebar 2510 - 2601 was - 13 yuan/ton, a change of +12 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between hot - rolled coil 2510 - 2601 was - 9 yuan/ton, a change of 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [17][18]. - **Rebar - Hot - rolled Coil Spread**: The spread between the Shanghai spot hot - rolled coil and rebar was 80 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. The spread between hot - rolled coil 2510 and rebar 2510 was 143 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the spread between hot - rolled coil 2601 and rebar 2601 was 139 yuan/ton, a change of +8 yuan/ton from the previous week [19]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills across the country was 91.32%, a decrease of 0.44% week - on - week. In mid - May 2025, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises in China was 2.199 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous period. The total weekly output of various steel products was 8.7244 million tons, an increase of 0.0409 million tons week - on - week. The output of rebar increased significantly, while the output of hot - rolled coils decreased [27][33]. 2.2 Demand - The trading volume of construction steel products by mainstream traders across the country was 476,700 tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons week - on - week. Terminal transactions decreased slightly, and the terminal trading volume continued to decline [4][36]. 2.3 Inventory - The social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 9.6056 million tons, a decrease of 0.3311 million tons week - on - week. The total inventory of all steel products in steel mills across the country was 4.3798 million tons, an increase of 0.0099 million tons week - on - week. The combined social and steel mill inventory was 13.9854 million tons, a decrease of 0.3212 million tons week - on - week [5][38]. 2.4 Profit - The on - screen and spot profits of rebar generally increased, while the spot profit of hot - rolled coils decreased. As of this week, the on - screen profit of the rebar 2510 contract was 235.23 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.96 yuan/ton from the previous week; the on - screen profit of the hot - rolled coil 2510 contract was 243.91 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.39 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot profit of rebar was 16.41 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.09 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot profit of hot - rolled coils was 46.41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43.15 yuan/ton from the previous week [41]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - The prices of major raw materials generally declined. Tangshan billet dropped 10 yuan/ton to 2940 yuan/ton, the Platts 62% index dropped 2.15 US dollars to 98.95 US dollars/ton, and the arrival price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao remained stable at 1545 yuan/ton [43][44]. 2.6 Technical Analysis - The main rebar 2510 contract fluctuated downward this week, with the upper resistance level at 3200 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 3000 yuan/ton. The main hot - rolled coil 2510 contract also fluctuated downward, with the upper resistance level at 3300 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 3150 yuan/ton [45]. 3. Summary and Investment Suggestions - The market was affected by weakening demand expectations this week, causing the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils to decline. Overseas macro expectations have turned weak. Supply - wise, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of steel mills decreased slightly, with a significant drop in hot - rolled coil production and a slight increase in rebar production. Although some mills' willingness to start production has decreased, profits remain high, so production will not decline trend - wise. Demand - wise, terminal transactions were weakly stable, and with the approaching off - season, demand expectations are turning pessimistic. Inventory - wise, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly. Overall, the market sentiment is weak, and with the approaching off - season, concerns about negative feedback have increased, and the market may maintain a weak trend [6][48].