Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.10%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the strong raw materials drive the rebar price to rise, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upside space is limited, and the strong cost continues to compete with the weak reality. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.21%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil have improved marginally under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. Coupled with the cost support brought by the strong raw materials, the price of hot-rolled coil has risen. However, there are concerns about demand, and the subsequent trend of the high inventory situation should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.55%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. Currently, the positive factors remain, and the demand for iron ore has improved, supporting the high price of iron ore. However, the fundamentals of iron ore remain weakly stable under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high-level fluctuating operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - As of March 24, 23 provinces have announced their investment plans for key provincial projects in 2026, with a total of 26,753 projects. Among them, 17 provinces including Guangdong, Fujian, Hubei, and Anhui have announced their annual planned investments, with a total of about 10.36 trillion yuan [7]. - From March 16 to March 22, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.8897 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 27.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%. The total transaction (signing) area of second-hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.2767 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Only Guangzhou saw a month-on-month decrease in the transaction area of newly built housing, with a decrease of 7.8%. The other 9 cities all achieved month-on-month growth in the transaction (signing) area of newly built housing, among which Suzhou had the largest increase, with a month-on-month growth of 112.2% to 94,000 square meters. In terms of the number of transactions (signings), the total number of transactions (signings) of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 17,600 units, a month-on-month increase of 34%. All 10 cities saw a month-on-month increase in the number of transactions (signings) of newly built housing, among which Foshan had the largest increase, with a month-on-month growth of 55.6% to 1,962 units [8]. - In February 2026, the total energy consumption of member enterprises decreased by 2.91% year-on-year; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.66% year-on-year; the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel decreased by 1.43% year-on-year; the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.05% year-on-year. The total power consumption of member enterprises increased by 2.56% year-on-year. The total self-generated power increased by 7.86% year-on-year; the self-generated power ratio was 62.57%, an increase of 3.08 percentage points year-on-year. The clean energy power generation increased by 31.25% year-on-year. Among them, the wind power generation increased by 62.07% year-on-year; the photovoltaic power generation increased by 31.50% year-on-year [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,345 yuan, with a decrease of 10 yuan in Shanghai, 0 yuan in Tianjin, and 1 yuan in the national average price. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,300 yuan and 3,240 yuan respectively, and the national average price was 3,333 yuan, with an increase of 0 yuan in Shanghai, 10 yuan in Tianjin, and 6 yuan in the national average price. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,990 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,190 yuan, both unchanged. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 90 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 yuan, with a change of 10 yuan and -10 yuan respectively [10]. - The price of PB powder (Shandong port) was 795 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 772 yuan, unchanged. The ocean freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 11.55 yuan and 30.37 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 0.22 yuan and 0.16 yuan respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.70 yuan, a decrease of 0.04 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 109.45 yuan, a decrease of 0.10 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,145 yuan, a decrease of 0.10%. The highest price was 3,155 yuan, the lowest price was 3,135 yuan, the trading volume was 618,964 lots, a decrease of 392,391 lots, and the open interest was 1,263,489 lots, a decrease of 87,899 lots [14]. - The closing price of the active hot-rolled coil contract was 3,324 yuan, an increase of 0.21%. The highest price was 3,329 yuan, the lowest price was 3,310 yuan, the trading volume was 253,950 lots, a decrease of 218,444 lots, and the open interest was 1,024,272 lots, a decrease of 31,099 lots [14]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 824.0 yuan, an increase of 0.55%. The highest price was 829.5 yuan, the lowest price was 813.0 yuan, the trading volume was 219,790 lots, a decrease of 43,540 lots, and the open interest was 445,891 lots, an increase of 3,958 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts showing the inventory changes of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including inventory levels, inventory changes, and the opening rates and profit situations of steel mills [16][25][33] 5. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: Both supply and demand continue to pick up. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and the weekly output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons month-on-month, rising for three consecutive weeks to a relatively high level. Although the inventory has begun to decline, it is still higher than the same period last year, and there is still supply pressure. At the same time, the demand for rebar continues to improve seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 312,800 tons month-on-month, but the high-frequency trading performance is weak, and both are at relatively low levels in the same period. Considering that the policy is not beyond expectations and there is no substantial change in the downstream industries, the subsequent demand growth space is limited. In short, the strong raw materials drive the rebar price to rise, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upside space is limited, and the strong cost continues to compete with the weak reality. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [42]. - Hot-rolled coil: Both supply and demand have increased. The resumption of production by steel mills has led to an increase in the output of hot-rolled coil, with a week-on-week increase of 49,500 tons, and there is still room for growth. In addition, the inventory level is still relatively high, and the supply pressure has been relieved to a limited extent. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes. However, the demand for hot-rolled coil has shown good resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 151,500 tons month-on-month, and the high-frequency daily trading volume also remains at a high level, mainly supported by the high output of downstream industries. It is necessary to guard against the intensification of contradictions, and the export performance is average under the disturbance of the Middle East conflict, and the concerns about demand remain. At present, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil have improved marginally under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. Coupled with the cost support brought by the strong raw materials, the price of hot-rolled coil has risen. However, there are concerns about demand, and the subsequent trend of the high inventory situation should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [42]. - Iron ore: There have been changes in both supply and demand. Steel mills are actively resuming production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded from a low level. Last week, the average daily pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills both increased significantly month-on-month, which is in line with expectations. However, the improvement in the profitability of steel mills is limited, and the contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated. The improvement space for iron ore demand may be limited. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has increased slightly, while the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will be stable, and the domestic iron ore production is recovering, and the supply of iron ore is increasing steadily. In short, the positive factors remain, and the demand for iron ore has improved, supporting the high price of iron ore. However, the fundamentals of iron ore remain weakly stable under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high-level fluctuating operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [43].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily drop of 2.05%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Under the dominance of industrial logic, steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the real - world contradictions are not significant under the low - inventory situation. It is expected that the rebar price will shift to a volatile downward trend, and domestic policies should be monitored [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened and declined, recording a daily drop of 2.30%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have weakened, the fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, inventory has increased slightly, but overall contradictions are not significant, and costs have risen significantly. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and overseas risks should be monitored [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore continued to decline, with a daily drop of 1.75%, and both volume and positions decreased. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued ore price is oscillating downward. The relatively positive factor is that the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable under the current situation of weak supply and strong demand, and the downward space is limited. Under the dominance of industrial logic, it is expected that the ore price will continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Industrial Profits**: In June, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed compared with May. The new kinetic energy industries represented by the equipment industry had relatively fast profit growth. The operating income continued to grow, and the decline in enterprise profits narrowed. In June, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the same growth rate as in May. The total profit reached 715.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%, and the decline narrowed by 4.8 percentage points compared with May. From January to June, the operating income increased by 2.5%, and the profit decreased by 1.8% [6]. - **Transportation Investment**: In the first half of this year, China completed transportation fixed - asset investment of 1.6474 trillion yuan. Investment in railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation was 355.9 billion yuan, 1.1291 trillion yuan, 109.3 billion yuan, and 53.1 billion yuan respectively [7]. - **Anglo American's Iron Ore Production and Sales**: In the second quarter of 2025, Anglo American's iron ore production was 15.94 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous quarter and a 2% increase year - on - year. The production in the first half of the year was 31.38 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. The sales volume in the second quarter was 16.41 million tons, a 13% increase from the previous quarter and a 1% decrease year - on - year. The sales volume in the first half of the year was 30.97 million tons, a 5% year - on - year increase. The annual production target remains at 57 - 61 million tons, and the company has completed 55% of the lower - limit target in the first half of the year. The annual unit cash cost target remains at $36 per ton [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet all decreased. The national average price of rebar dropped by 41 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil dropped by 34 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3,248 yuan/ton, a 2.05% decline, with a trading volume of 3,414,713 lots and a decrease in positions of 62,771 lots [11]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,397 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline, with a trading volume of 1,255,676 lots and a decrease in positions of 73,396 lots [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the main iron ore contract was 786.0 yuan/ton, a 1.75% decline, with a trading volume of 531,456 lots and a decrease in positions of 39,554 lots [11]. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][32]. 后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand has improved, but both are still at low levels in recent years. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and it is expected that the price will shift to a volatile downward trend [35]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected that the price will maintain a high - level volatile operation [36]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is still resilient, but the supply pattern is changing. The over - valued ore price is oscillating downward, and it is expected to continue the high - level adjustment trend [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have increased, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. Coupled with the cost support from strong raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.35%, the volume decreased and the open interest increased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the fundamentals have weakened again, and the inventory has slightly increased. However, the overall contradictions are not significant, and the strong raw materials have boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, in the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The State Administration for Market Regulation is focusing on rectifying the "involution - style" competition in the quality field. It has exposed a number of typical cases of illegal competition in the quality field. These malicious competition behaviors have led to a decline in overall product quality, directly affecting consumer rights and damaging the long - term healthy development of the industry [6]. - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 978,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 11.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 960,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 14.24 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13%. For new energy vehicles, the retail sales of the national passenger car new energy market were 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 54.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers' new energy vehicles was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The wholesale penetration rate was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [7]. - In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.41 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.141 million tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 2.1%; 19.44 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194,400 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 0.6%; and 20.8 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208,000 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3,350 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,340 yuan, and the national average price was 3,442 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3,470 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,410 yuan, and the national average price was 3,489 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 3,110 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan. The volume - to - rebar price difference was 120 yuan, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,210 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port) was 786 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 748 yuan, the Australian sea freight was 9.87 yuan, the Brazilian sea freight was 23.59 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 99.85 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.00 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,294 yuan, with a change rate of 0.34%, the highest price was 3,330 yuan, the lowest price was 3,249 yuan, the trading volume was 2,533,253 lots, the volume difference was - 314,207 lots, the open interest was 1,906,352 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 16,346 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,456 yuan, with a change rate of 0.35%, the highest price was 3,484 yuan, the lowest price was 3,406 yuan, the trading volume was 852,865 lots, the volume difference was - 233,709 lots, the open interest was 1,507,782 lots, and the open - interest difference was 12,461 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 811.0 yuan, with a change rate of - 0.55%, the highest price was 822.5 yuan, the lowest price was 803.5 yuan, the trading volume was 398,654 lots, the volume difference was - 86,357 lots, the open interest was 562,835 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 17,104 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, and steel - mill production - related charts such as blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills [13][18][29] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 29,000 tons month - on - month, and the demand improved with a week - on - week increase in weekly apparent demand of 104,100 tons. However, both supply and demand are still at relatively low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level, and attention should be paid to policy changes [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output decreased by 36,500 tons month - on - month, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 85,500 tons. Although the high - frequency trading volume is acceptable, the external risks may ferment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [34]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has improved. The terminal consumption of iron ore has increased, and the supply has decreased. The optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [35].