Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily drop of 2.05%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Under the dominance of industrial logic, steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the real - world contradictions are not significant under the low - inventory situation. It is expected that the rebar price will shift to a volatile downward trend, and domestic policies should be monitored [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened and declined, recording a daily drop of 2.30%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have weakened, the fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, inventory has increased slightly, but overall contradictions are not significant, and costs have risen significantly. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and overseas risks should be monitored [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore continued to decline, with a daily drop of 1.75%, and both volume and positions decreased. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued ore price is oscillating downward. The relatively positive factor is that the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable under the current situation of weak supply and strong demand, and the downward space is limited. Under the dominance of industrial logic, it is expected that the ore price will continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Industrial Profits**: In June, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed compared with May. The new kinetic energy industries represented by the equipment industry had relatively fast profit growth. The operating income continued to grow, and the decline in enterprise profits narrowed. In June, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the same growth rate as in May. The total profit reached 715.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%, and the decline narrowed by 4.8 percentage points compared with May. From January to June, the operating income increased by 2.5%, and the profit decreased by 1.8% [6]. - **Transportation Investment**: In the first half of this year, China completed transportation fixed - asset investment of 1.6474 trillion yuan. Investment in railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation was 355.9 billion yuan, 1.1291 trillion yuan, 109.3 billion yuan, and 53.1 billion yuan respectively [7]. - **Anglo American's Iron Ore Production and Sales**: In the second quarter of 2025, Anglo American's iron ore production was 15.94 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous quarter and a 2% increase year - on - year. The production in the first half of the year was 31.38 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. The sales volume in the second quarter was 16.41 million tons, a 13% increase from the previous quarter and a 1% decrease year - on - year. The sales volume in the first half of the year was 30.97 million tons, a 5% year - on - year increase. The annual production target remains at 57 - 61 million tons, and the company has completed 55% of the lower - limit target in the first half of the year. The annual unit cash cost target remains at $36 per ton [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet all decreased. The national average price of rebar dropped by 41 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil dropped by 34 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3,248 yuan/ton, a 2.05% decline, with a trading volume of 3,414,713 lots and a decrease in positions of 62,771 lots [11]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,397 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline, with a trading volume of 1,255,676 lots and a decrease in positions of 73,396 lots [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the main iron ore contract was 786.0 yuan/ton, a 1.75% decline, with a trading volume of 531,456 lots and a decrease in positions of 39,554 lots [11]. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][32]. 后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand has improved, but both are still at low levels in recent years. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and it is expected that the price will shift to a volatile downward trend [35]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected that the price will maintain a high - level volatile operation [36]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is still resilient, but the supply pattern is changing. The over - valued ore price is oscillating downward, and it is expected to continue the high - level adjustment trend [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have increased, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. Coupled with the cost support from strong raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.35%, the volume decreased and the open interest increased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the fundamentals have weakened again, and the inventory has slightly increased. However, the overall contradictions are not significant, and the strong raw materials have boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, in the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The State Administration for Market Regulation is focusing on rectifying the "involution - style" competition in the quality field. It has exposed a number of typical cases of illegal competition in the quality field. These malicious competition behaviors have led to a decline in overall product quality, directly affecting consumer rights and damaging the long - term healthy development of the industry [6]. - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 978,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 11.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 960,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 14.24 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13%. For new energy vehicles, the retail sales of the national passenger car new energy market were 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 54.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers' new energy vehicles was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The wholesale penetration rate was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [7]. - In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.41 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.141 million tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 2.1%; 19.44 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194,400 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 0.6%; and 20.8 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208,000 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3,350 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,340 yuan, and the national average price was 3,442 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3,470 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,410 yuan, and the national average price was 3,489 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 3,110 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan. The volume - to - rebar price difference was 120 yuan, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,210 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port) was 786 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 748 yuan, the Australian sea freight was 9.87 yuan, the Brazilian sea freight was 23.59 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 99.85 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.00 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,294 yuan, with a change rate of 0.34%, the highest price was 3,330 yuan, the lowest price was 3,249 yuan, the trading volume was 2,533,253 lots, the volume difference was - 314,207 lots, the open interest was 1,906,352 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 16,346 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,456 yuan, with a change rate of 0.35%, the highest price was 3,484 yuan, the lowest price was 3,406 yuan, the trading volume was 852,865 lots, the volume difference was - 233,709 lots, the open interest was 1,507,782 lots, and the open - interest difference was 12,461 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 811.0 yuan, with a change rate of - 0.55%, the highest price was 822.5 yuan, the lowest price was 803.5 yuan, the trading volume was 398,654 lots, the volume difference was - 86,357 lots, the open interest was 562,835 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 17,104 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, and steel - mill production - related charts such as blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills [13][18][29] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 29,000 tons month - on - month, and the demand improved with a week - on - week increase in weekly apparent demand of 104,100 tons. However, both supply and demand are still at relatively low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level, and attention should be paid to policy changes [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output decreased by 36,500 tons month - on - month, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 85,500 tons. Although the high - frequency trading volume is acceptable, the external risks may ferment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [34]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has improved. The terminal consumption of iron ore has increased, and the supply has decreased. The optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [35].