Report Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints - In September, the rebar 2601 contract fell 3.24%. The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 390,000 tons, or 4.1%, compared with the previous period in late September, and increased by 1.54 million tons, or 20.6%, compared with the same period last year. The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemption and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. During the National Day holiday, the spot prices were generally stable. In the short term, the resumption enthusiasm of EAF steel mills has increased, and the supply remains at a relatively high level. The market accumulated inventory during the National Day holiday. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in October. [4][5] - It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 3,000 yuan/ton for single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options opportunistically at low prices. [5] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The daily K - line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented, but no specific price data is provided. [6] - **Spot Price**: As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan/ton, also down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [11][13] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific content about basis and spread analysis is provided, only the data source is mentioned. [14] Important Market Information - On October 3, the Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's proposed tariff hikes and other trade - investment restrictions. - On October 9, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations for a term of 3 months. - At the end of September, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.3387 trillion US dollars, up 16.5 billion US dollars or 0.5% from the end of August. - China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. - The global manufacturing PMI in September was 49.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in the fourth batch this year to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones. - OPEC and eight major non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the production increase measure in November, with a daily increase of 137,000 barrels of crude oil. - In the first three quarters, the total land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises was 727.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%, and the growth rate was 8.7 percentage points higher than that from January to August. [15][17] Supply - side Situation - No specific content about supply - side situation analysis is provided in the text, only some related data source information is mentioned. [22] Demand - side Situation - As of September 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the current value of the steel circulation industry's purchasing managers' index was 50.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. [26] Fundamental Analysis - The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemption and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. - The impact of steel mill maintenance on construction steel production may increase this week. There are 14 production lines under maintenance and 10 production lines resuming production. The impact on production due to production line maintenance is estimated to be 284,700 tons this week. - In late September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 390,000 tons, or 4.1%, compared with the previous period, and increased by 1.54 million tons, or 20.6%, compared with the same period last year. By region, most regions' inventories decreased, with East China having the largest reduction and North China having the largest decline. By product, except for hot - rolled coils, other product inventories decreased month - on - month, and except for hot - rolled coils, other product inventories increased year - on - year. [38] 后市展望 - Blast furnace steel mills rarely take the initiative to cut or stop production. Due to the decline in scrap steel prices, the profit of EAF steel mills has slightly recovered, and the short - term enthusiasm for resuming production of EAF steel mills has increased, so the supply remains at a relatively high level. The market accumulated inventory during the National Day holiday. After the holiday, the market is expected to fluctuate. [39] Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 3,000 yuan/ton and try to go long with a light position. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - **Options**: Opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put option strategy for rb2601. [40]

螺纹周报 研究报告 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作 任何保证。本文中的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考， 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 一、价格分析 （一）期货价格 （二）现货价格 螺纹钢现货价 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 3.08%。 基本面：据我的钢铁网数据，上周螺纹钢周度产量 225.51 万吨，环比下降 5.97 万吨，钢厂库存 186.46 万吨， 环比下降 1.3 万吨，社会库存 394.59 万吨，环比下降 21.87 万吨，钢材五大品种周度产量 880.85 万吨，环比上升 8.41 万吨，库存合计 1365.6 万吨，环比下降 32.94 万吨，表观需 求 913. ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump announced an increase in import tariffs on steel from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, aimed at protecting the domestic steel industry from foreign and unfair competition [1]. Group 1 - The new tariff rate of 50% is a significant increase from the previous 25% [1]. - The announcement was made during a rally in Pennsylvania on May 30 [1]. - The White House confirmed the decision through a social media post, emphasizing the protection of the U.S. steel industry [1].

美国总统特朗普在匹兹堡兜售25%的钢铁关税，宣称将把进口税提高至50%。 据央视报道，当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普表示， 将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。 美国白宫当天在社交媒体上发布公告称，"为进一步保护美国钢铁行业免受外国和不公平竞争的影响， 从下周起，美国进口钢铁关税将从25%提高至50%。 " 特朗普2月10日签署行政命令，宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。当地时间3月12 日，特朗普对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税的举措正式生效。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 美国俄亥俄州钢铁公司Cleveland-Cliffs美股盘后大涨26%，纽柯钢铁涨4.24%，Steel Dynamics涨 1.57%。 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 ...