钢铁股集体下跌，截至发稿，重庆钢铁（601005）股份(01053)跌4.72%，报1.21港元；鞍钢股份 （000898）(00347)跌4.06%，报1.89港元；马鞍山钢铁股份(00323)跌3.64%，报2.38港元。 国泰海通证券则表示，需求有望逐步触底；供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业亏损时间已经较长， 供给的市场化出清已开始出现，我们预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政策落地，行业供给 的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。 国盛证券（002670）发布研报称，今年限产政策执行效果不佳，供给端我们期待未来钢厂反内卷政策能 尽快切实转化为行动上的压产，加快行业盈利回归的速度。去年三季度以来板块估值大幅修复，目前绝 对估值位置已经从绝对低估修复至中等偏低的位置，估值上泡沫不多，没有计入盈利进一步回归的预 期，依然具备绝对收益的空间。 ...

国泰海通证券则表示，需求有望逐步触底；供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业亏损时间已经较长， 供给的市场化出清已开始出现，我们预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政策落地，行业供给 的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。 智通财经APP获悉，钢铁股集体下跌，截至发稿，重庆钢铁股份(01053)跌4.72%，报1.21港元；鞍钢股 份(00347)跌4.06%，报1.89港元；马鞍山钢铁股份(00323)跌3.64%，报2.38港元。 国盛证券发布研报称，今年限产政策执行效果不佳，供给端我们期待未来钢厂反内卷政策能尽快切实转 化为行动上的压产，加快行业盈利回归的速度。去年三季度以来板块估值大幅修复，目前绝对估值位置 已经从绝对低估修复至中等偏低的位置，估值上泡沫不多，没有计入盈利进一步回归的预期，依然具备 绝对收益的空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Steel's stock has seen a rise of over 5%, with a current price of 1.42 HKD and a trading volume of 20.92 million HKD, despite a reported revenue decline and net loss in the latest earnings report [1] Company Summary - Chongqing Steel reported a revenue of approximately 19.09 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.32% [1] - The net loss attributable to shareholders was around 218 million CNY, which is an improvement of 83.82% compared to the previous year [1] - The basic loss per share was 0.02 CNY [1] Industry Summary - The steel industry has experienced declining profitability since 2021, with three consecutive years of losses reported [1] - Some smaller steel companies are facing cash flow issues, highlighting vulnerabilities in supply [1] - Recent policies, including the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", emphasize continued production cuts and the exit of inefficient capacities to maintain supply-demand balance [1] - Expectations for further supply contraction persist into 2026, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the steel industry's fundamentals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom as supply-side market clearing begins, and if supply policies are implemented, the pace of supply contraction will accelerate, leading to faster industry recovery [1][3]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.6813 million tons, a decrease of 19,800 tons week-on-week; construction materials consumption increased by 79,000 tons to 3.0078 million tons, while plate consumption decreased by 98,800 tons to 5.6735 million tons [1]. - Steel production last week was 8.6697 million tons, down 12,200 tons week-on-week; total inventory stood at 13.365 million tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons, maintaining the lowest level for the same period in recent years [1]. - The operating rate of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 83.46%, unchanged week-on-week; the capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points; electric furnace operating rate increased by 3.21 percentage points to 62.18%, with capacity utilization at 53.48%, up 1.31 percentage points [1]. Profitability Insights - The average simulated gross profit for rebar was 330.1 yuan per ton, an increase of 131.5 yuan per ton week-on-week; for hot-rolled coils, it was 244.1 yuan per ton, up 113.5 yuan per ton [2]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 63.64%, an increase of 3.47% week-on-week [2]. Future Outlook - Demand is expected to stabilize, with a gradual reduction in the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand; infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are anticipated to see steady growth [3]. - Steel exports from January to June maintained a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [3]. - Approximately 40% of steel companies are still experiencing losses, but market clearing has begun, indicating a gradual recovery from the bottom [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a plan to stabilize growth in key industries, which may accelerate supply contraction and industry recovery if implemented [3]. Long-term Industry Trends - The steel industry is expected to see increased concentration and a shift towards high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [3]. - Under stricter environmental regulations and carbon neutrality goals, leading companies will have enhanced competitive advantages and profitability [3].