Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [6]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, and the inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry [3][6]. - The report highlights that the supply-side adjustments are beginning to take effect, with a significant portion of steel companies still operating at a loss, which may lead to a market-clearing process [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 8.7406 million tons, an increase of 237,300 tons week-on-week; construction materials consumption was 3.0445 million tons, up by 99,800 tons; and sheet metal consumption was 5.6961 million tons, up by 137,500 tons [6]. - Total steel inventory decreased to 15.1061 million tons, down by 91,300 tons week-on-week, maintaining a low level [6]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points week-on-week [6]. 2. Profitability and Production - The average gross profit for rebar was 216.2 CNY/ton, down by 18.1 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 172.2 CNY/ton, up by 18.4 CNY/ton [6]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week-on-week [6]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates that the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand will weaken, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to grow steadily [6]. - The recent policy document on the steel industry emphasizes continued production cuts and the exit of inefficient capacity, supporting the expectation of supply-side contraction [6]. 4. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their competitive advantages and market positioning, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel, among others [6].

报告导读： 需求有望逐步触底；供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业亏损时间已经较 长，供给的市场化出清已开始出现，我们预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政 策落地，行业供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。 需求环比上升，库存环比下降。 上周（本报告中的上周均指 2025 年 9 月 22 日至 9 月 26 日当周）五大品种钢材表观消费量 874.06 万吨，环比升 23.73 万吨；其中建材表观消费量 304.45 万吨，环比升 9.98 万吨；板材表观消费量 569.61 万吨，环比升 13.75 万吨。五大品种钢材产量 864.93 万 吨，环比升 9.47 万吨；总库存 1510.61 万吨，环比降 9.13 万吨，维持低位水平。上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 84.45% ，环比升 0.47 个百分点；高炉产 能利用率 90.86% ，环比升 0.51 个百分点；电炉开工率 60.26% ，环比降 1.28 个百分点；电炉产能利用率 52.03% ，环比降 0.89 个百分点。目前处于 传统旺季阶段，叠加节前下游补库需求增加，钢铁需求边际回升，总库存由升转降。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国 ...

国泰海通表示，需求有望企稳，供给维持收缩预期。基建、制造业端用钢需求有望平稳增长。出口方 面，1-7月钢材出口量仍维持同比增长。总体来看，预期钢铁需求有望逐步企稳。供给端来看，行业自 2022Q3开始亏损，供给市场化出清已开始出现。政策层面来看，近日发布的《钢铁行业稳增长工作方 案（2025-2026年）》提出"继续实施产量压减政策，按照支持先进企业发展、倒逼落后低效产能退出的 原则落实年度产量调控任务，促进供需动态平衡"，维持供给端收缩的预期，钢铁行业基本面有望逐步 修复。 感兴趣的投资者可以关注市场上唯一跟踪钢铁行业的钢铁ETF（515210），一键布局【钢铁板材+特钢 +金属制品】。没有股票账户的投资者可以通过钢铁ETF的联接基金（008190）把握钢铁板块投资机 会。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1 - The steel industry demand is expected to gradually bottom out, with signs of market clearing on the supply side, leading to a potential recovery in the industry's fundamentals [1][3] - Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.5777 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons week-on-week, while total inventory reached 14.6788 million tons, up 268,400 tons [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a slight reduction in production activity [1][2] Group 2 - The average gross profit for rebar was 231.5 CNY/ton, down 12.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, reflecting a decline in profitability across the sector [2] - The steel industry has been experiencing losses since Q3 2022, with over 30% of steel companies still in the red, but market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to take effect [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to introduce policies aimed at structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity, which could accelerate supply contraction [3] Group 3 - Long-term trends indicate an increase in industry concentration and a shift towards high-quality development, benefiting companies with product and cost advantages [4] - Recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, which are noted for their technological and product structure leadership [4] - The report highlights the potential for upstream resource companies to benefit from demand recovery, recommending firms such as Hebei Resources and Erdos [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and the supply side is beginning to show signs of market-driven clearance, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][4]. - The report anticipates that if supply policies are implemented, the speed of supply contraction will accelerate, leading to a quicker upward trend in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 8.5299 million tons, an increase of 2.64% week-on-week [24]. - The total steel inventory was 14.4104 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.25% [11]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 83.36%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points week-on-week [28]. Production and Profitability - The total steel production was 8.7806 million tons, an increase of 0.73% week-on-week [30]. - The average gross profit for rebar was 243.7 CNY/ton, down 13.4% week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 201.7 CNY/ton, down 13.5% week-on-week [35]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report notes a decline in real estate demand, but infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are expected to maintain stable growth [3]. - Steel exports from China maintained a year-on-year growth of 9.2% in the first half of the year [3]. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore prices decreased, with the spot price dropping to 765 CNY/ton, a decline of 1.54% [42]. - Coking coal prices remained stable at 1430 CNY/ton, while coking prices increased to 1660 CNY/ton, a rise of 3.11% [42]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with technological and product structure advantages, such as Baosteel and Hesteel, as well as companies with low valuations and high dividends like CITIC Special Steel [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights three positive signals for the steel industry: 1) Steel prices and inventory have dropped to low levels, leading to a market sentiment of "hope for price increases"; 2) Expectations of production cuts are strengthening, which is driving profits in the futures market and supporting steel stock prices; 3) Improved expectations in the real estate sector may benefit the entire industry chain [2][6][12] Summary by Sections Market Trends - Since April, steel prices and stocks have been in a downward trend due to trade shocks. However, recent easing of trade conflicts has led to a rebound in steel stocks [2][6] - The apparent consumption of steel has decreased by 2.82% week-on-week and 4.02% year-on-year, indicating a seasonal decline in demand [4] Production and Inventory - Daily average pig iron production has risen to 2.4435 million tons, an increase of 4.23 thousand tons per day compared to the previous week [5] - National total inventory has decreased by 3.25% week-on-week, with long product inventory down 4.73% year-on-year [5] Price Movements - Shanghai rebar prices have increased to 3,200 CNY per ton, up 70 CNY from the previous week, while hot-rolled prices have risen to 3,230 CNY per ton, up 20 CNY [5] - The report notes that the market sentiment is shifting towards optimism as steel prices stabilize and inventory levels decrease [12] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on undervalued quality companies in the steel sector, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel, as well as companies with strong performance potential like Hualing Steel and New Steel [27]