——钢铁行业周度更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 刘彦奇(分析师) | 021-23219391 | liuyanqi@gtht.com | S0880525040007 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | 本报告导读： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.02 需求有望逐步触底；供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业微利时间已经较长，供 给的市场化出清已开始出现，我们预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政 策落地，行业供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。 第一批引领性钢企公布 [Table_Industry] 钢铁 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.02 第一批引领性钢企公布 [Table_Industry] 钢铁 ——钢铁行业周度更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 刘彦奇(分析师) | 021-23219391 | liuyanqi@gtht.com | S0880525040007 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | 本报告导读： 需求有望逐步触底；供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业微利时间已经较长，供 给的市场化出清已开始出现，我们预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政 策落地，行业供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [2]. Core Views - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side adjustments are beginning to show, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, leading to a quicker industry upturn [4]. - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, but market-driven supply adjustments are starting to occur, suggesting a gradual recovery in the steel sector [5]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 7.607 million tons, a decrease of 5.12% week-on-week but an increase of 32.12% year-on-year. Rebar consumption was 1.476 million tons, down 16.3% week-on-week, but up 143.03% year-on-year [16]. - The total steel inventory reached 13.3775 million tons, an increase of 4.63% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [5]. - The average gross profit for rebar was 159.5 CNY/ton, down 37.4 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit was 19.5 CNY/ton, down 27.4 CNY/ton [5][33]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price for PB powder (61.5% iron content) at 766 CNY/ton, down 26 CNY/ton week-on-week. The main iron ore futures price fell by 31 CNY/ton to 760.5 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.92% [42]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 171.41 million tons, an increase of 0.7% week-on-week, with the average available days of imported iron ore for domestic steel companies increasing to 31 days, up 14.81% [45][48]. Production and Capacity Utilization - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills increased to 79.53%, up 0.53 percentage points week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate was 85.69%, up 0.22 percentage points [24]. - The total steel production last week was 8.199 million tons, a decrease of 3.27 million tons week-on-week [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, as well as low-cost and flexible steel companies like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, facilitating a quicker industry upturn [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Steel prices have decreased, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61%. The total inventory of steel has increased by 1.70% to 12.7851 million tons [8][12]. - Apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, an increase of 0.44% week-on-week [12][37]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [4]. - The construction sector's demand for steel is expected to stabilize, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is projected to grow steadily [4]. Profitability and Production Margins - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous week [28]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4]. - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies like Hebei Resources and Erdos, which may benefit from a recovery in demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][5] - The industry has been experiencing prolonged micro-profit conditions, and market-driven supply adjustments have begun to emerge [3][5] - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating ongoing supply-side challenges [5] Summary by Sections Steel - Steel prices have decreased week-on-week, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61% [8] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21] - The total inventory of steel reached 12.7851 million tons, increasing by 1.70% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [5][12] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills rose to 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week [28] - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39] Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price for PB powder (61.5% iron content) at 792 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton [46] - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 17.022 million tons, an increase of 1.53% [50] - The total shipment volume of major iron ore producers increased, with Brazil's shipment at 4.852 million tons, up 1.06% week-on-week [51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5] - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies benefiting from demand recovery trends, recommending Hebei Resources and Erdos among others [5]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a collective rise in stock prices, driven by potential supply constraints following a safety incident at Baogang Steel, which may lead to temporary production cuts and support for costs and supply [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Oriental Group (00581) increased by 5.97%, reaching HKD 1.42 [1] - China Hanking Holdings (03788) rose by 5.61%, reaching HKD 5.27 [1] - Tianshan Iron & Steel (01029) gained 1.92%, reaching HKD 0.53 [1] - Chongqing Steel (01053) increased by 1.64%, reaching HKD 1.24 [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The safety incident at Baogang Steel may trigger safety inspections across steel mills, potentially leading to temporary production reductions, which could support costs and supply [1] - Current profits per ton of steel are favorable, and under the backdrop of "anti-involution" in the industry, there is significant room for performance improvement among general steel companies, indicating a potential for value recovery [1] - Guotai Junan Securities forecasts that steel demand is likely to gradually bottom out; even without considering supply policies, the prolonged period of minimal profits in the industry has begun to show signs of market clearing [1] - If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply could accelerate, leading to a quicker recovery in the industry's fundamentals [1]

Group 1 - Steel stocks collectively rose, with China Oriental Group increasing by 5.97% to HKD 1.42, China Hanking by 5.61% to HKD 5.27, Iron Ore by 1.92% to HKD 0.53, and Chongqing Steel by 1.64% to HKD 1.24 [1] - On January 18, a safety incident occurred at Baogang Steel Plate Plant, which may lead to safety inspections across steel mills and potential temporary production cuts, providing cost and supply support [1] - Current profits per ton of steel are substantial, and under the backdrop of "anti-involution" in the industry, there is significant room for performance improvement among ordinary steel companies, indicating a potential value recovery and favorable allocation opportunities in the steel sector [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities reported that steel demand is expected to gradually bottom out; despite not considering supply policies, the industry has experienced prolonged micro-profit periods, and market-driven supply clearing is beginning to emerge [1] - The expectation is that the fundamentals of the steel industry will gradually recover, and if supply policies are implemented, the speed of supply contraction will accelerate, leading to quicker progress in the industry's upward trajectory [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][4]. - The report highlights that despite a long period of industry losses, market-driven supply adjustments have begun, and if supply policies are implemented, the pace of supply contraction may accelerate [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel - Steel prices and total inventory have decreased week-on-week. The average consumption of five major steel products was 8.397 million tons, down 2.83% week-on-week and 4.76% year-on-year [5][12]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.062 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons week-on-week. Total inventory stood at 13.32 million tons, down 33.5% week-on-week [5][29]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points from the previous week [5][19]. - The average gross profit for rebar was 169.8 CNY/ton, up 22.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil had a simulated average gross profit of -30.2 CNY/ton, down 17.8 CNY/ton [5][31]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price of PB powder (61.5% iron content) dropping 10 CNY/ton to 779 CNY/ton, a decline of 1% [40]. - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 154.31 million tons, an increase of 0.85% week-on-week [43]. Macro - The crude steel output from January to October 2025 saw a year-on-year decline, with the construction and manufacturing sectors remaining weak [5][5]. - The report notes that the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand has significantly weakened, with expectations for stable growth in demand from infrastructure and manufacturing [5][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their competitive advantages and market positioning, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel [5].

Group 1 - Steel stocks collectively declined, with Chongqing Steel falling 4.72% to HKD 1.21, Ansteel down 4.06% to HKD 1.89, and Maanshan Steel decreasing 3.64% to HKD 2.38 [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that the execution of production restriction policies this year has been ineffective, and there is an expectation for steel mills to implement anti-involution policies to accelerate production cuts and improve industry profitability [1] - Since the third quarter of last year, the sector's valuation has significantly recovered, moving from an absolute undervaluation to a moderately low position, indicating limited valuation bubbles and still offering absolute return potential [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities indicated that demand is expected to gradually bottom out; despite not considering supply policies, the industry has been experiencing prolonged losses, and market-driven supply clearing has begun [1] - The expectation is that the fundamentals of the steel industry will gradually improve, and if supply policies are implemented, the speed of supply contraction will accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the steel industry is rated as "overweight," with expectations for long-term development driven by increased industry concentration and high-quality growth. Companies with product structure and cost advantages are expected to benefit significantly [1] - The apparent demand for steel from the five major steel mills increased by 3.90% week-on-week to 8.94 million tons, while year-on-year demand decreased by 2.01%. The production of steel was 8.5 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons week-on-week, and total inventory fell by 440,000 tons to 14.33 million tons [1] - In October, crude steel production was 71.8 million tons, down 12.10% year-on-year, and pig iron production was 65.55 million tons, down 7.9% year-on-year. Cumulative steel exports reached 97.74 million tons, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The average gross profit for rebar was 61 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan per ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil had an average gross profit of -65 yuan per ton, down 48 yuan per ton [2] - The profitability rate of 247 surveyed steel companies was 37.66%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week, indicating an expansion of losses among steel companies due to reduced demand [2] - The new construction in the real estate sector has decreased by over 70% from its peak, significantly reducing the impact on total domestic steel demand. However, demand from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors has remained stable [3] Group 3 - The steel demand is expected to stabilize gradually, while supply is anticipated to continue contracting. Over 60% of surveyed steel companies reported losses, indicating a market clearing process is beginning [3] - The recently released "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes the continuation of production reduction policies to support advanced enterprises and phase out inefficient capacities, promoting dynamic balance between supply and demand [3]