Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity has resurfaced, leading to a new high in rebar spot prices since April [1]. - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at better aligning supply with demand [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [10][19]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, up 0.07% from the previous month [10][19]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high since April, with a weekly increase of 0.93% [1]. - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 91%, up 1.0 percentage points week-on-week [9][41]. - The average daily crude steel output for key enterprises in early July 2025 was 2.097 million tons [1][41]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 75.99%, an increase of 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20% [2]. Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.14 this week [3]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 160 yuan/ton, up 14.29% from last week [3]. Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [3]. Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.09%, with the best-performing sector being commercial vehicles, which rose by 5.98% [3]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [4].

Group 1 - The steel ETF (515210) saw a net inflow of over 50 million yuan, driven by improved supply and demand expectations for profit recovery [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's revised "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)" aims for a two-tier evaluation of steel enterprises, which is expected to help the steel sector's profitability recover to historical average levels [1] - The current price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is at a low of 110 yuan/ton, while the hot and cold-rolled price difference has expanded by 80 yuan/ton to 420 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Rebar prices have rebounded by 1.59% from an 8-month low, and the national steel PMI new order index increased by 9.9 percentage points to 51% [1] - The comprehensive gross profit of the steel industry has slightly decreased by 0.65% to 199 yuan/ton [1] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is at 37.68%, still below the peak level of 2017, indicating potential investment interest [1] Group 3 - The steel ETF (code: 515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (code: 930606), which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company and reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the steel industry [1]