Core Insights - The U.S. diamond jewelry industry is experiencing significant market shifts due to two major events: Taylor Swift's 10-carat engagement ring sparking a surge in demand for natural diamonds, and the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on diamonds from India, leading to increased global diamond processing costs [1][2]. Market Trends - The tariff on Indian diamonds has resulted in a 30%-50% increase in the cost of natural diamonds in the U.S., as India handles 90% of the global diamond cutting and polishing [2]. - The global production of natural diamonds is expected to decline by 40% from its peak in 2013, with estimates for 2025 ranging between 20-23 million carats [2]. - The engagement ring worn by Taylor Swift, valued at approximately $1 million, has significantly influenced consumer interest, with a 45% year-on-year increase in inquiries for natural diamonds over 5 carats in high-end jewelry stores [2][4]. Pricing Dynamics - The natural diamond price index rose by 2.8% in Q3 2025, with a 5.3% increase for round diamonds over 1 carat, while the average price of lab-grown diamonds has dropped by 25% to $1,500 [4]. - The market is witnessing a revaluation of "scarcity," with the Gemological Institute of America (GIA) changing its grading system for lab-grown diamonds, further diminishing their comparability to natural diamonds [4]. Purchasing Strategies - Rule 1: Prioritize diamonds over 2 carats with a clarity of VS2 or higher, which have shown an annualized return of 8.7% over the past decade, outperforming gold and the S&P 500 [5]. - Rule 2: Ensure diamonds come with authoritative certification and blockchain traceability to avoid market pitfalls [5]. - Rule 3: Consider brand premium and cultural value, as branded natural diamonds typically command a 30%-50% higher price at auctions compared to non-branded ones [5]. Conclusion - The natural diamond market is evolving from a consumer product to a hard asset, driven by scarcity and brand value, with strategic purchasing becoming essential for long-term investment [5].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that diamonds, rather than gold, are the true investment assets due to their significant appreciation in value over time [2][3][4] Price Trends - Over the past five years, high-quality white diamonds (1 carat and above) have appreciated at an average annual rate of 8.2%, while gold's annual return was only 3.9% [2] - A specific case highlighted a 3-carat diamond purchased for 120,000 yuan a decade ago, which sold for 380,000 yuan at auction this year [2] Market Dynamics - The diamond market operates on a "three powers separation" system, with GIA certification acting as a diamond's identity card, establishing a global value coordinate system [2] - The Shenzhen market reportedly circulates diamonds worth 2 billion yuan daily, indicating a robust trading environment for loose diamonds [3] Investment Considerations - The article warns that 90% of consumers make the mistake of treating jewelry as an investment, as set jewelry depreciates immediately upon purchase [3] - The average price difference between retail and recovery for gold jewelry in 2023 was 28%, while the secondary market discount for quality diamonds was only 15% [3] Long-term Value - Diamonds typically require a long-term investment horizon, with significant value increases often occurring after a 10-20 year period [4] - A strategy called "carat dollar-cost averaging" is suggested, where investors gradually purchase smaller diamonds to accumulate larger carats over time [4] Market Misconceptions - The article clarifies that lab-grown diamonds, while cheaper, do not hold value, and that custom jewelry often incurs higher costs than the diamonds themselves [4][5] - Second-hand diamonds can sometimes fetch higher prices than new ones due to historical significance, provided they come with proper certification and provenance [4]

Core Insights - The diamond market is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in import volumes and values in the first half of the year, indicating a rebound in consumer confidence and investment interest [2][3]. Industry Overview - Natural diamond prices have increased by 37% since 2007, with an average annual growth rate of about 3% over the past 35 years [1]. - The diamond market faced challenges due to high inventory levels and rising interest rates, leading to a decline in prices and import volumes in 2023 [1][2]. - The decline in diamond production is notable, with annual output decreasing from 160-180 million carats in the early 21st century to an estimated 110 million carats by 2024 [2]. Market Trends - In the first half of 2023, the import value of finished diamonds increased by 43.5% year-on-year, with significant growth observed in June and July [2]. - The increase in imports is attributed to declining inventory levels among domestic retailers and a rebound in market demand [2][3]. - Investment-grade diamonds are seen as highly attractive, with expectations of significant appreciation due to a shortage of rough diamonds [3]. Investment Insights - The rarity of high-quality diamonds (over 2 carats) makes them a valuable investment, with only 1% of diamonds exceeding this size [3]. - The market for investment-grade diamonds is expected to grow, with price indices projected to increase by 3% to 5% annually over the next decade [3].

Core Insights - The diamond industry is experiencing a long-term price increase, with natural diamond rough prices rising by 37% since 2007 and an average annual growth rate of approximately 3% for finished diamonds over the past 35 years [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Global diamond prices and sales have declined in the past two years, following a significant price increase of 40% between 2021 and 2022 [2] - Factors contributing to the recent price decline include high inventory levels in the Indian cutting industry and increased financing costs [2] - Despite short-term fluctuations, industry experts believe that diamond prices will continue to grow steadily in the long run due to limited natural diamond reserves [2][3] Group 2: Investment Potential - Investment-grade diamonds, particularly those weighing over 5 carats, have been less affected by recent price declines and are considered attractive to potential investors [3] - The diamond price index is projected to grow by 3%-5% annually over the next decade, with stronger growth expected after 2027 [3] - China, as the largest jewelry market, has a relatively low share of diamond jewelry sales at 9%, compared to 60% in the United States, indicating potential for growth in the Chinese market [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The diamond trading market is expected to recover gradually by 2025, with significant increases in both the volume and value of diamond imports [3] - Data shows that from January to July 2025, the total weight of finished diamond imports through customs is projected to reach 1.1788 million carats, a year-on-year increase of 93.8%, with a total import value of $379 million, up 43.5% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The diamond industry is experiencing a temporary decline in prices and sales, but long-term trends indicate a steady increase in diamond prices due to limited natural diamond reserves [4][5][8]. Group 1: Price Trends - Natural diamond rough prices have increased by 37% since 2007, with an average annual growth rate of about 3% for finished diamonds over the past 35 years [3][4]. - The global diamond market saw a significant price increase of 40% between 2021 and 2022, followed by a price correction due to high inventory levels in the Indian cutting industry and increased financing costs [4][5]. - Investment-grade diamonds, particularly those over 5 carats, have been less affected by recent price declines, making them attractive to potential investors [8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The annual production of diamonds has been declining, from 160-180 million carats in the early 21st century to an estimated 110 million carats by 2024 [5]. - The diamond market is expected to recover, with a projected increase in diamond imports in China, which is the largest jewelry market, accounting for 35% of global jewelry consumption [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The diamond price index is expected to grow by 3%-5% annually over the next decade, with stronger growth anticipated after 2027 [8]. - Data from the Shanghai Diamond Exchange indicates a significant increase in diamond imports in the first half of 2025, reflecting a rebound in global market demand [8].

Core Insights - The long-term outlook for diamond prices remains positive, with expectations of steady growth due to limited natural diamond reserves [2][3]. Industry Overview - Natural diamond rough prices have increased by 37% since 2007, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 3% for finished diamonds over the past 35 years [2]. - Despite a decline in global diamond prices and sales over the past two years, this is seen as a relative decrease following a significant price surge of 40% between 2021 and 2022 [3]. - The current high inventory levels in the Indian cutting industry and increased financing costs have contributed to the recent price corrections [3]. Market Dynamics - The annual production of diamonds has been declining, from 160-180 million carats in the early 21st century to an expected 110 million carats by 2024, due to depleting reserves and a lack of new large discoveries [3]. - Investment-grade diamonds, particularly those weighing over 5 carats, are less affected by price declines and are considered attractive to potential investors [5]. Future Projections - The diamond price index is projected to grow by 3%-5% annually over the next decade, with stronger growth anticipated after 2027 [5]. - China, as the largest jewelry market, currently has a low share of diamond jewelry sales at 9%, compared to 60% in the United States, indicating potential for growth [5]. - A significant increase in diamond imports is expected in 2025, with a projected 93.8% year-on-year increase in weight and a 43.5% increase in total import value [5].