近期，美国钻石珠宝行业因两大事件掀起市场巨浪：Taylor Swift的10克拉订婚钻戒引爆社交媒体，带 动婚庆天然钻石需求激增；美国对印度钻石加征50%关税，导致全球钻石加工成本飙升。双重冲击下， 天然钻石价格触底回升，而培育钻石市场则陷入价格战泥潭。对于消费者而言，如何抓住天然钻石的升 值窗口期，在纷繁复杂的市场中做出明智选择？本文将从市场趋势、选购策略与品牌价值三方面展开分 析。 天然钻石：从"情感符号"到"抗通胀资产"的蜕变 美国对印度钻石加征关税的"蝴蝶效应"正在蔓延。作为全球钻石加工中心，印度承担着90%的切割抛光 业务，关税政策直接导致美国市场天然钻石成本上涨30%-50%。据印度宝石珠宝出口促进委员会 (GJEPC)数据，2025年8月印度对美钻石出口量同比暴跌67%，多家中小加工厂被迫停工。与此同时，戴 比尔斯集团等上游企业主动收缩产能，2025年全球天然钻石产量预计降至2000万-2300万克拉，较2013 年峰值下降40%。供应端的双重挤压，为天然钻石价格反弹奠定基础。 此外，Taylor Swift的订婚事件堪称"天然钻石营销教科书"，其佩戴的10克拉钻戒(估值约100万美元)在 In ...

近几年，中国的钻石进口额在持续下滑。 钻石，真的卖不动了。 商业史上最大的"骗局"，被中国河南戳破了。 卖不动了 戴比尔斯公布的2024半年报显示，营收同比下滑21%至22亿美元（约合159.7亿元人民币），天然毛坯钻销量同 比下滑22%至1190万克拉。 与2023年同期相比，戴比尔斯营收、销量双双下降。 为了应对市场下滑，戴比尔斯不得不下调了2024年天然钻石产量预期。 此前该集团预期年产量为2600万-2900万克拉，下调后预计为2300万-2600万克拉。 实际上，戴比尔斯的营收，2023年前就开始下滑了。 戴比尔斯2020-2023年的营收和钻石销售量 2022年，戴比尔斯的营收为66亿美元，毛坯钻石销售量为3040万克拉。 按2024年上半年的数据推算，戴比尔斯的营收与毛坯钻石销量要比2022年减少一半。 戴比尔斯成立于1888年，在本世纪初之前一度垄断了钻石市场。 戴比尔斯是全球最大的钻石矿业公司，同时还是全球最大的钻石零售企业，旗下钻矿生产的宝石级钻石，以价值 计约占全球总产值一半。 正所谓，一叶知秋。 二是中国钻石进口额。 2023年，中国钻石的进口额为59.72亿美元，同比下降了29.55 ...

即便进入2013年至今的调整阶段，培育钻石技术取得突破，但天然钻石的核心价值并未削弱。从供给端看，天然 钻石的稀缺性与生俱来——其形成需数十亿年地质运动，优质矿源分布高度集中，而头部企业的供给调控更强化 了这一属性。国际钻石巨头戴比尔斯为稳定市场价格，实施减产2000万克拉的举措，直接反映出天然钻石供给的 可控性与稀缺性，避免了过量开采导致的价值稀释；反观培育钻石，作为实验室技术产物，其生产依赖工业设备 与原料，随技术成熟可实现规模化量产，缺乏天然钻石"不可再生"的稀缺基因，难以支撑长期价值沉淀。 作为全球钻石高消费国，中国钻石行业历经五阶段演进，在市场调整与消费升级的浪潮中，天然钻石凭借稀缺供 给、稳固的高端需求及独特文化属性，始终占据行业价值高地。随着"天然钻石高端化、培育钻石大众化"的分层 格局明确，天然钻石的不可替代性进一步凸显，成为收藏、馈赠与高端消费场景的核心选择。 回溯中国钻石行业发展脉络，天然钻石始终是推动行业进阶的核心力量。1982年前萌芽阶段，钻石虽为奢侈品， 但已随珠宝行业起步进入大众视野；1982-1993年起步期，上海钻石交易所的成立推动天然钻石贸易规范化，为行 业搭建起标准化流通平 ...

Group 1 - The price of natural diamonds remains strong, while the price of lab-grown diamonds has significantly decreased, making them popular among young consumers for self-consumption [1] - The price of a 1.5-carat natural diamond ring is approximately 110,000 yuan, while the wholesale price for a 1.5-carat lab-grown diamond ring is as low as 1,850 yuan, about one-sixtieth of the natural diamond price [1] - Lab-grown diamond prices have dropped over 90% since early 2022, with current prices being around half of natural diamond prices at that time [1] - China is the largest producer of lab-grown diamonds globally, accounting for nearly 50% of the world's production capacity [1] - The penetration rate of lab-grown diamonds is 57% in the U.S. and 10% in China, indicating significant growth potential in the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - Major lab-grown diamond concept stocks include Zhongbing Hongjian, Huanghe Xuanfeng, Liliang Diamond, Sifangda, and World, with World stock rising 104.47% year-to-date [2] - The overall price decline of lab-grown diamonds has led to a decrease in gross margins for many companies, with Liliang Diamond reporting a net profit of 25.91 million yuan, down 82.52% year-on-year [2] - Huanghe Xuanfeng reported a net loss of 299 million yuan, highlighting the financial challenges faced by companies in the sector [2] - Lab-grown diamonds are attractive to young consumers due to their environmental and cost advantages, and the market is expected to grow significantly, potentially exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2030 [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese diamond market has entered a new phase where natural diamonds and lab-grown diamonds coexist, with natural diamonds maintaining a core position due to their irreplaceable scarcity and high-end attributes [1][3][6] Industry Development - The establishment of the Shanghai Diamond Exchange in 1982 marked a key starting point for the industry, leading to standardized diamond trading and laying the foundation for future growth [3] - By 2003, China became the world's second-largest diamond consumer, with diamond jewelry transitioning from a luxury item to a staple in the wedding market [3] - Despite a slowdown in market growth and increased homogenization since 2013, natural diamonds have shown resilience due to their unique advantages [3] Market Dynamics - The global production of natural diamonds is projected to decline to 115 million carats by 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, highlighting the increasing scarcity of resources [3] - Emerging markets like China and India are experiencing a rebound in demand, which is driving a steady increase in natural diamond prices [3] - High-end segments, particularly large fancy-shaped diamonds, are commanding premiums exceeding 30%, reinforcing their status as "hard currency" in the market [3] Consumer Trends - Natural diamonds continue to dominate high-end demand, particularly in wedding, self-purchase, and gifting scenarios, due to their emotional significance [5] - Lab-grown diamonds, while benefiting from technological advancements and cost advantages (70%-80% cheaper than natural diamonds), primarily cater to the light luxury market and industrial applications [5] - The emotional and collectible value of natural diamonds, tied to decades of industry heritage, remains unmatched by lab-grown alternatives [5] Policy Environment - Supportive policies, such as the tax rate adjustment to 5% on retail for natural diamonds, have facilitated market standardization and maturity [5] - While lab-grown diamonds have made inroads in the mid-to-low-end market, they face challenges from homogenization and stricter environmental regulations [5] Future Outlook - The current stratified landscape of the Chinese diamond industry is characterized by high-end natural diamonds, mass-market lab-grown diamonds, and industrial applications [6] - As demand from emerging markets continues to grow and high-end consumer segments expand, natural diamonds are expected to lead the dual-track development of the industry [6]

Core Insights - The natural diamond market demonstrates strong resilience amid global economic adjustments, with significant growth in imports and value reassessment due to supply constraints and recovering demand [1][6] - The scarcity of natural diamonds is a key factor supporting their value, with global production declining to the lowest level since 1995, highlighting the increasing rarity of these assets [1][6] - The long-term price stability of natural diamonds is evident, with a historical average annual growth rate of approximately 3% over the past 35 years, and future projections indicate a continued increase in value [1][6] Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's imports of finished diamonds surged by 93.8% year-on-year, reflecting a robust demand recovery [1] - The consumer market is diversifying, with younger consumers seeking personalized designs and high-net-worth individuals showing strong demand for investment-grade diamonds [3][6] - The investment appeal of natural diamonds is becoming more pronounced, especially during economic fluctuations, positioning them as a viable asset class [3][6] Competitive Landscape - The introduction of a grading system by GIA for lab-grown diamonds marks a significant shift, reinforcing the unique value of natural diamonds and promoting rational market development [6] - The production of lab-grown diamonds has rapidly expanded, leading to a significant price decline, which contrasts with the stable value of natural diamonds [4][6] - The long-term growth potential for natural diamonds remains high, driven by supply constraints and diversified demand, solidifying their status in the luxury goods market [6]

Core Insights - The diamond market is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in import volumes and values in the first half of the year, indicating a rebound in consumer confidence and investment interest [2][3]. Industry Overview - Natural diamond prices have increased by 37% since 2007, with an average annual growth rate of about 3% over the past 35 years [1]. - The diamond market faced challenges due to high inventory levels and rising interest rates, leading to a decline in prices and import volumes in 2023 [1][2]. - The decline in diamond production is notable, with annual output decreasing from 160-180 million carats in the early 21st century to an estimated 110 million carats by 2024 [2]. Market Trends - In the first half of 2023, the import value of finished diamonds increased by 43.5% year-on-year, with significant growth observed in June and July [2]. - The increase in imports is attributed to declining inventory levels among domestic retailers and a rebound in market demand [2][3]. - Investment-grade diamonds are seen as highly attractive, with expectations of significant appreciation due to a shortage of rough diamonds [3]. Investment Insights - The rarity of high-quality diamonds (over 2 carats) makes them a valuable investment, with only 1% of diamonds exceeding this size [3]. - The market for investment-grade diamonds is expected to grow, with price indices projected to increase by 3% to 5% annually over the next decade [3].

封面新闻记者 杨芮雯 摄影报道 钻石恒久远，一颗永流传。 七夕佳节，作为传统的"定情之日"，象征爱情与誓言的钻石曾是情侣送礼的最佳选项，近年来，受"黄金热"兴起、人工培育钻石入市补充供应，以及二级 市场低价回收钻石等多重因素共同作用，消费者对天然钻石的购买意愿正逐步下降。曾经被视作稀缺象征的钻石，其"高价神话"也随之逐渐破灭。 8月29日，七夕节当天，天然钻石饰品咨询和成交量如何？记者走访了成都梨花街珠宝市场，采访了多位资深商家与消费者。 走访：商家折价50%出售天然钻石 卖钻戒只有戒托能挣钱 8月29日七夕节上午10时，封面新闻记者探访西南地区最大黄金珠宝集散地——梨花街珠宝市场。受当天降雨影响，记者看到街道客流稀疏，各家店铺内 的售货员也显得较为清闲。 七夕节上午的梨花街头 周女士四年前的18K金公主方钻戒如今折价50%出售 七夕前夕，记者在梨花街走访时发现，年轻消费者的首饰选择愈发理性，保值性与性价比成为核心考量因素。街头采访显示，6成受访者倾向购买黄金首 饰，2成偏好彩宝，剩余则在天然钻石与培育钻石间犹豫。 "黄金既能装饰，还能以旧换新，变现也灵活，相当于把存款戴在手上。"26岁的琳琳直言不会考虑钻石 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a 50% tariff on Indian products by the United States is expected to severely impact India's diamond processing industry, which is already facing challenges due to declining global demand for diamonds [1]. Group 1: Impact on Indian Diamond Industry - India is the largest natural diamond processing country, handling approximately 90% of the world's diamond cutting and polishing [1]. - The new tariff will exacerbate the already struggling Indian diamond export business, which is projected to generate around $32 billion in jewelry exports for the fiscal year 2023-2024, with the U.S. accounting for about one-third of this market, approximately $9 billion [1]. - The chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) expressed significant concern over the impact of the tariffs on the entire value chain of the industry [1]. Group 2: Response from Indian Businesses - Due to the new tariffs, U.S. clients have begun canceling orders, leading to operational difficulties for many local factories in India [1]. - Some diamond processing factories are reducing raw diamond purchases, lowering inventory, cutting working hours to maintain cash flow, and even significantly lowering prices to stay operational [1]. - There are plans among several factories to shift processing operations to countries with lower tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The tariff increase is expected to raise procurement costs for U.S. importers, potentially leading to a 5%-10% increase in retail prices for natural diamonds, which may drive consumers towards more cost-effective options like lab-grown diamonds or second-hand jewelry [2]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether Indian diamond merchants will return to the Chinese market, as the transition of production capabilities is complex and time-consuming [3]. - Some analysts suggest that Indian companies might resort to "third-country transshipment" (e.g., through Dubai or Israel) to circumvent tariffs, although this could increase logistics costs and delivery times, thereby reshaping the global diamond supply chain [3].

经济观察网据上海钻石交易所网站消息，近日，上海钻石交易所举办"天然钻石媒体沙龙分享会"。会上 披露的2025年天然钻石交易数据显示，2025年1—7月，通过钻交所海关报关的一般贸易项下成品钻进口 总额同比增长43.5%。上海钻石交易所市场拓展部经理徐熙表示，这一趋势不仅反映出全球市场需求的 回升，也折射出国内消费信心的恢复与投资关注度的提升。数据背后是天然钻石在当代市场中兼具"稀 缺性、保值性与文化情感价值"的综合体现。 ...