8月27号当天，美国那边说干就干，50%的关税直接落地，整个印度出口圈都炸了锅，跟扔了颗炸弹似的。 你想想，原本一单货卖到美国能赚个10%、15%的利润，现在倒好，光税就砍掉一半，谁还敢接单？印度那边的工厂主们脸都绿 了。 特别是坎普尔，这地方可是印度的"皮都"，成百上千家小作坊和正规厂子围着皮革转，做皮包、皮鞋、皮夹克，全指着美国市场吃 饭。 结果呢？从8月16号开始，邮件一封接一封，美国客户直接说"暂停合作，等政策明朗再说"，这不是耍人嘛！ 有个叫阿扎德的出口商说得直白："我们所有订单全废了，工厂机器全停，工人干坐一天也没活干，这日子怎么过？" 说实话，这种完全依赖单一市场的出口模式，风险早就埋下了，只是这次被美国精准踩中了命门。 更惨的还在后头，钻石行业直接被按在地上摩擦。 你可能不知道，全球超过八成的原钻都是在印度古吉拉特邦的苏拉特市切的，那地方有几十万工人天天拿着放大镜在钻石上动刀 子，技术是真牛。 可美国是它最大的买家，一年买走差不多90亿美元的珠宝，占出口总量三分之一。 现在关税一加，价格立马没竞争力，订单哗哗地撤。 有些厂子已经不敢进新原石了，库存压着不敢动，工时也砍了，有的甚至开始低价甩货， ...

Core Viewpoint - The diamond industry is experiencing a temporary decline in prices and sales, but long-term trends indicate a steady increase in diamond prices due to limited natural diamond reserves [4][5][8]. Group 1: Price Trends - Natural diamond rough prices have increased by 37% since 2007, with an average annual growth rate of about 3% for finished diamonds over the past 35 years [3][4]. - The global diamond market saw a significant price increase of 40% between 2021 and 2022, followed by a price correction due to high inventory levels in the Indian cutting industry and increased financing costs [4][5]. - Investment-grade diamonds, particularly those over 5 carats, have been less affected by recent price declines, making them attractive to potential investors [8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The annual production of diamonds has been declining, from 160-180 million carats in the early 21st century to an estimated 110 million carats by 2024 [5]. - The diamond market is expected to recover, with a projected increase in diamond imports in China, which is the largest jewelry market, accounting for 35% of global jewelry consumption [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The diamond price index is expected to grow by 3%-5% annually over the next decade, with stronger growth anticipated after 2027 [8]. - Data from the Shanghai Diamond Exchange indicates a significant increase in diamond imports in the first half of 2025, reflecting a rebound in global market demand [8].

从长远来看，钻石价格往往会稳步增长。 钻石恒久远，一颗永流传。这句当年脍炙人口的广告词在许多人心中已成为经典，钻石也成为不少人在结婚时的必选品之一。 在消费者眼中，钻石也许是代表爱情。行业人士则认为，从长期来看，钻石依旧是一个长期抗通胀、保值能力强的品类。 在上海钻石交易所、天然钻石协会20日共同举办的一个行业报告会上，相关行业人士分享了一组数据：天然钻石原石价格自2007年以来已经上涨了37%。而 过去35年里，天然钻石成品钻石的价格年均增长率约为3%。 但在过去两年里，全球钻石无论是价格还是销量上都有所下滑。 相关负责人解释称，下降是相对的，因为全球钻石产品的价格在2021-2022年间曾大幅上涨40%。但随后因印度切割行业库存高企，以及该市场板块营运资 本融资成本的多倍增长，价格出现了阶段性回调。在库存储备量居高不下的同时，用于切割的毛坯钻采购量减少，这些因素都对钻石产品的价格产生了影 响。 行业人士认为，从长远来看，钻石价格往往会稳步增长。这一趋势是基于有限的天然钻石储量。上海钻石交易所发布钻石投资潜力概览显示，近几十年来， 因现有储量枯竭和几乎完全没有发现大型矿藏，钻石年产量一直在持续下降：从21世 ...

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) added over 1,100 companies, bringing the total membership close to 26,000, with significant contributions from Chinese, Turkish, and British enterprises [1] - The growth is attributed to new licensing options for Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) and holding companies, with active participation from technology and blockchain firms [1] - The number of members in the crypto center surpassed 700, marking a 38% year-on-year increase, while the total number of technology companies exceeded 3,300 [1] Industry Developments - The real estate sector is rapidly developing, with new dining brands entering the market [1] - Commodities trading is thriving, with coffee prices reaching new highs and diamond trading remaining stable [1] - DMCC has introduced digital assets backed by water resources, promoting innovation within the industry [1] Company Ecosystem - Many companies cite DMCC's comprehensive ecosystem, advanced infrastructure, and specialized industry centers as key reasons for their decision to establish operations there [1]

Core Viewpoint - The EU's ban on diamond trade with Russia has led to a significant decline in Antwerp's diamond industry, marking a severe downturn in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of EU Sanctions - Antwerp's diamond trade volume has reached a historical low due to the sanctions, with rough diamond imports dropping by 38% in the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. - The vacancy rate in Antwerp's office buildings has risen to 20%, with over 6,000 jobs directly related to the diamond industry lost [3]. - The number of diamond cutters in Antwerp has plummeted from 45,000 to around 400, indicating a severe contraction in the local industry [3]. Group 2: Emergence of Chinese Diamond Industry - China's Zhecheng has emerged as a significant player in the global diamond market, producing 6 million carats annually and holding a 56% market share [5][7]. - Zhecheng's cultivated diamonds have superior quality, with a Mohs hardness of 10 and a price only 20% of natural diamonds, leading to a surge in international demand [7][8]. - The brand "Zheguang Diamond" has gained popularity for its high-quality, customized jewelry, achieving annual sales exceeding 100 million yuan [8][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The global demand for mid-to-high-end diamonds in Europe and the U.S. is projected to grow at a rate of 12% annually, despite supply chain disruptions [5]. - The EU's sanctions, intended to curb Russian diamond trade, have inadvertently accelerated Antwerp's decline while allowing Chinese brands to transition from manufacturing to brand establishment [10][11]. - The rise of Chinese diamond brands signifies a shift in the competitive landscape, establishing a new era of "Eastern discourse power" in the luxury diamond market [11].

Core Insights - De Beers, a leading diamond company, is attracting interest from potential buyers including Qatar Investment Authority and Indian billionaire Anil Agarwal [1] Group 1 - De Beers is engaging with significant investors, indicating a potential shift in ownership or investment strategy [1] - The involvement of high-profile investors such as Qatar Investment Authority suggests a strong market interest in the diamond industry [1] - Anil Agarwal's interest highlights the growing trend of wealthy individuals seeking opportunities in established luxury markets like diamonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of cultivated diamonds from Henan, China, is significantly impacting the global diamond market, challenging the dominance of De Beers and reshaping consumer perceptions of diamond value [1][3][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Henan's Zhecheng produces 6 million carats of cultivated diamonds annually, accounting for nearly half of global production [1]. - De Beers faces a crisis with a 60% drop in net profit for the fiscal year 2024 and $2 billion in inventory, leading to plans to split its diamond business [1][3]. - The cultivated diamond market in China has seen a retail market size growth from over 10 billion yuan three years ago to an expected 30 billion yuan this year, indicating substantial market potential [8]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The price of cultivated diamonds is approximately 10% of that of natural diamonds, making them more accessible to consumers [3]. - Local brands like Zheguang have gained popularity, with a reported 400% increase in sales within a month due to consumer interest in large carat diamonds [3][5]. - The shift in consumer perception is evident as cultivated diamonds are increasingly viewed as legitimate alternatives to natural diamonds, supported by endorsements from high-profile brands like Pandora and Swarovski [8]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The emergence of cultivated diamonds is breaking the monopoly previously held by natural diamond suppliers, leading to a democratization of diamond ownership [8]. - The concept of "diamond freedom" is becoming ingrained in consumer culture, emphasizing quality, aesthetics, and affordability [8]. - The technological advancements in diamond cultivation are not only enhancing product quality but also challenging traditional notions of value based on scarcity [8].

Core Viewpoint - The diamond industry is facing a "perfect storm" due to a combination of high import tariffs, weak global demand, and competition from lab-grown diamonds, pushing it to the brink of crisis [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The diamond industry is heavily reliant on a complex supply chain, with over half of the polished diamond demand coming from the U.S., making the new tariffs particularly damaging [1][2]. - The industry is currently awaiting the outcome after a 90-day tariff suspension period, as players search for a new equilibrium amidst plummeting prices [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - Diamonds typically traverse multiple borders before reaching U.S. retailers, making the industry vulnerable to trade disruptions [2]. - The industry is advocating for diamonds to be exempt from tariffs, similar to other raw materials like gold and copper [2]. Group 3: Competition from Lab-Grown Diamonds - Lab-grown diamonds, which are chemically identical to natural diamonds but priced 80% lower, represent the most significant disruption to the industry [3]. - A study indicated that over half of U.S. couples surveyed last year chose lab-grown diamonds for their engagement rings, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences [3]. Group 4: Price Dynamics - Since peaking in March 2022, natural diamond prices have dropped nearly 60% due to poor macroeconomic conditions and increased competition from lab-grown alternatives [4]. - Analysts suggest that the market is nearing a stabilization point between lab-grown and natural diamonds, as the price difference creates a clear distinction for consumers [4].

Group 1 - De Beers announced the closure of its lab-grown diamond brand Lightbox, marking a strategic shift back to its core business of natural diamonds after entering the synthetic diamond market in 2018 [1][2] - The company previously launched Lightbox to counter the rising market share of lab-grown diamonds, pricing 1-carat synthetic diamonds at $800, which was only a quarter of the market price at that time [1] - The wholesale price of lab-grown diamonds has dropped over 60% in three years, with the current price of 1-carat synthetic diamonds falling below $200, which is more than 40% lower than Lightbox's retail price [1] Group 2 - De Beers CEO Al Cook stated that the value of lab-grown diamonds in the jewelry sector is declining, highlighting the growing distinction between these products and natural diamonds [2] - The strategic retreat occurs during a period of significant adjustment in the diamond industry, with the global rough diamond price index down 23% from its peak in 2022 due to weak consumer demand [2] - The parent company, Anglo American, has listed De Beers as a business to be divested as part of its asset optimization strategy, and exiting the lab-grown diamond market may enhance the attractiveness of De Beers for potential buyers [2]