Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - As the lead - acid battery consumption season approaches, the rising price has stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm with a significant "buy - on - rising" feature. The improvement of macro - sentiment and the spill - over of risk sentiment will benefit the lead price. For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, buying hedging on dips can be carried out between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On July 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 26.77 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose 75 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 17050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 17025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium rose 75 yuan/ton to 17100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 3, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17235 yuan/ton and closed at 17245 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34446 lots, an increase of 6922 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 52878 lots, an increase of 1624 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 17315 yuan/ton and the lowest at 17195 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17220 yuan/ton and closed at 17305 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The lead price is oscillating strongly. Downstream enterprises' operations are in the transition period between the off - season and peak season. Some enterprises are making necessary inventory preparations, and the spot trading in the primary lead market is fair [2] Inventory - On July 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons from the same period last week. As of July 3, the LME lead inventory was 265900 tons, a decrease of 2250 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, buying hedging on dips can be carried out between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at 16,500 yuan/ton [4]