Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - This week, lead prices were in a narrow high - level range. After the environmental protection traffic restriction news on Thursday, prices rapidly rose to a six - month high and then maintained high - level oscillations. The confirmed October interest rate cut, Trump's optimistic signals on China - US relations, and China's emphasis on "anti - involution" after the Fourth Plenary Session influenced market sentiment. Due to the environmental protection traffic restriction in Hebei, lead supply is short - term tight. Since May, recycled lead has been troubled by raw materials, with low operating rates. Low lead prices have compressed smelting profits, and the supply side's weakness has been long - standing. Although the price increase has restored some smelting profits, supply recovery is expected to take about a month, and low inventories support high - level lead price oscillations in the short term [2]. - In the near - term, some of October's domestic demand has been consumed by September's policies and pre - holiday stockpiling. After the environmental protection traffic restriction, lead is in a tight - balance state. In the long - term, the Fed's possible consecutive interest rate cuts are beneficial to lead prices, but overseas macro - factors have a relatively weak driving force on lead prices compared to other non - ferrous metals. Domestically, the macro - impact on lead prices mainly comes from consumption and supply structure adjustments, and an optimistic attitude is maintained due to supply - side structural adjustments and lithium - battery export restrictions [2][6][8]. Summary by Section Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - This week, lead prices were in a narrow high - level range, then rose sharply on Thursday due to environmental protection traffic restriction news and maintained high - level oscillations. Macro - factors such as the confirmed October interest rate cut, Trump's signals on China - US relations, and China's "anti - involution" emphasis affected market sentiment. Fundamentally, the environmental protection traffic restriction in Hebei led to short - term tight supply. Recycled lead has had low operating rates due to raw material shortages since May, and low lead prices have compressed smelting profits. Although the price increase restored some profits, supply recovery will take time, and low inventories support high - level price oscillations [2]. - Near - term trading logic: Some of October's domestic demand has been consumed, and after the environmental protection traffic restriction, lead is in a tight - balance state. Long - term trading expectations: The Fed's possible interest rate cuts are beneficial to lead prices, but overseas macro - factors have weak driving force. Domestically, an optimistic attitude is maintained due to supply - side and export - related factors [6][8]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The Shanghai lead main contract is in a high - level oscillation. The pressure level is around 17,850 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 17,000 yuan/ton. Trading volume and open interest are neutral [9]. - **Short - Term Futures Strategy**: High - sell and low - buy within the range. Lightly go long around 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 17,000 yuan/ton; go short around 17,700 - 17,850 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 19,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Short - Term Options Strategy**: Sell wide - straddle options to collect premiums for stable returns [9]. - **Basis Strategy**: Lead basis fluctuates little, so no basis strategy is recommended [11]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Calendar spreads are stable, so no calendar spread strategy is recommended [12]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: The lead - zinc spread is stable. Wait for the export window to open to try long - short arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets [13]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventories and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai lead main futures contract at around 17,400 yuan/ton [14]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventories and concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai lead main futures contract at around 16,500 yuan/ton [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. Different industries and quarters had different growth rates, and the third - quarter GDP had a 1.1% quarter - on - quarter increase [15]. - **Environmental Protection Traffic Restriction**: Hebei restricted vehicle entry, affecting the transportation of recycled lead and lead battery enterprises, lengthening the transportation cycle [15]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: SMM 1 lead's daily, weekly, and monthly average prices, domestic and imported lead concentrate prices, and recycled lead average prices all increased to varying degrees [16][18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China - US trade consultations [15] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: This week, lead prices were in a narrow high - level range with strong bottom support, closing at 17,575 yuan/ton. Profitable positions and foreign capital are mainly long - biased, indicating a long - term bullish logic among institutions [19]. - **LME Market**: LME lead was weak this week, closing at $2,012/ton on Friday. Investment companies and credit institutions hold the majority of positions. The LME lead calendar spread structure is stable, showing a deep C - structure, and the import window has opened [18][24][42]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the decline of silver - containing lead concentrate processing fees was obvious [46]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Information on the relationship between lead concentrate import profits and imports, and the seasonality of various lead - related product imports and exports is provided, but no specific conclusions are drawn [50]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Information on the seasonality of domestic lead ingot supply and actual consumption is provided, but no specific conclusions are drawn [57]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - The global lead ore market is tight this year. Although smelting willingness for primary lead is high, raw material shortages may limit production [58]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - This week, the operating rate of lead battery enterprises increased slightly due to post - holiday rework [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - As the lead - acid battery consumption season approaches, the rising price has stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm with a significant "buy - on - rising" feature. The improvement of macro - sentiment and the spill - over of risk sentiment will benefit the lead price. For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, buying hedging on dips can be carried out between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On July 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 26.77 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose 75 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 17050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 17025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium rose 75 yuan/ton to 17100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 3, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17235 yuan/ton and closed at 17245 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34446 lots, an increase of 6922 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 52878 lots, an increase of 1624 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 17315 yuan/ton and the lowest at 17195 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17220 yuan/ton and closed at 17305 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The lead price is oscillating strongly. Downstream enterprises' operations are in the transition period between the off - season and peak season. Some enterprises are making necessary inventory preparations, and the spot trading in the primary lead market is fair [2] Inventory - On July 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons from the same period last week. As of July 3, the LME lead inventory was 265900 tons, a decrease of 2250 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, buying hedging on dips can be carried out between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at 16,500 yuan/ton [4]