新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-03 现货成交仍偏寡淡 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-03-02，LME铅现货升水为-44.63美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16575元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16625元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16575元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至16675元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 9925元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元/吨。 期货方面：2026-03-02，沪铅主力合约开于16805元/吨，收于16895元/吨，较前一交易日变化55元/吨，全天交易日 成交60587手，较前一交易日变化11518手，全天交易日持仓63962手，手较前一交易日变化118手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16930元/吨，最低点达到16755元/吨。夜盘方面，沪 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-27 现货成交仍然寡淡 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 春节前后铅市呈现供需双弱，库存持续累高之格局。矿端加工费稳定，原生铅与再生铅开工率分化，再生铅亏损 持续；终端铅蓄电池企业集中放假，消费降至冰点，社会库存刷新近5个月新高。节后再生铅复产早于下游消化库 存，供需错配加剧。策略上，建议沪铅主力合约在16350-16900元/吨区间高抛低吸，但节后首周仍建议以逢高卖出 套保为主，关注16950元/吨压力位，下方支撑位16300元/吨。现货端暂缓备库，等待贴水扩大至200元/吨以上再介 入，重点关注元宵节后下游复工及去库节奏。 期权：卖出看涨 风险 有色板块整体走强 带动铅价上升 期货方面：2026-02-26，沪铅主力合约开于16715元/吨，收于16795元/吨，较前一交易日变化60元/吨，全天交易日 成交55290手，较前一交易日变化-12415手，全天交易日持仓64924手，手较前一交易日变化-7072手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到16805元/吨，最低点达到16700元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于16800元/吨，收于16800元/吨， 较昨日午后收 ...

策略 谨慎偏空 现货方面：2026-02-12，LME铅现货升水为-48.07美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16575元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16625元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16575元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至16650元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至 9850元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9975元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-12，沪铅主力合约开于16800元/吨，收于16695元/吨，较前一交易日变化-45元/吨，全天交易日 成交29928手，较前一交易日变化-48手，全天交易日持仓32162手，手较前一交易日变化-5898手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16805元/吨，最低点达到16685元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于16700元/吨，收于16705元/吨，较 昨日午后收盘下降0.30 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场成交仍明显偏淡 铅价反弹或难持续 现货方面：2026-02-10，LME铅现货升水为-49.30美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化100元/吨至16525 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化100元 /吨至16575元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化150元/吨至16550元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化125元/吨至16600元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9975元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-10，沪铅主力合约开于16665元/吨，收于16665元/吨，较前一交易日变化80元/吨，全天交易日 成交58100手，较前一交易日变化8455手，全天交易日持仓42295手，手较前一交易日变化-8010手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16805元/吨，最低点达到16560元/吨。夜盘方面 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-06 下游维持刚需采购 铅价难有强劲表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-02-05，LME铅现货升水为-51.45美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16400 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至16475元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16375元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-25元/吨至16450元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至9925元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至10000元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225元 /吨。 期货方面：2026-02-05，沪铅主力合约开于16585元/吨，收于16555元/吨，较前一交易日变化-35元/吨，全天交易日 成交44073手，较前一交易日变化-6760手，全天交易日持仓54708手，手较前一交易日变化-3568手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16640元/吨，最低点 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of the lead industry is weak, with both smelting finished - product inventory and social inventory rising. The expectation of the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman on January 30th triggered a retreat in market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently highly volatile. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd on the sector's sentiment [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 102,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 42 to 2,004 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 167,900 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,675 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,625 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 29th was 38,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 26th. The domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 275 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 207,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 20,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.72 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 130.1 dollars/ton. - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 549.49 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. At the recycled end, the lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 69.0% [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In December 2025, the domestic lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total lead concentrate production was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17]. - **Total Supply and Overseas Production**: In December 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In November 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 264,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.49% and a month - on - month change of 1.85%. From January to November, the total overseas lead ore production was 2,674,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.42% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 250 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead output was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total primary lead ingot production was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26]. 3.3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, the lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead output was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total recycled lead ingot production was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33]. - **Net Export and Total Supply**: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 69.0%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - **Battery Export**: In December 2025, the net export volume of batteries containing lead was 1,664,900 units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, a cumulative net export year - on - year change of - 13.06% [41]. - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle segment, the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, but the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries with lithium - iron phosphate batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption due to replacement demand. In the base station segment, the rapid development of communication technology has led to an increase in the number of communication and 5G base stations, driving a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 12,400 tons [62]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons. From January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [65]. 3.6. Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 29th was 38,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 26th. The domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 275 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 207,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 20,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.72 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 130.1 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 549.49 yuan/ton [70][72][75]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned net short, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [78].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, influenced by macroeconomic policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and structural changes in the industry, leading to a stable yet cautious price outlook for lead. Supply Side - The lead market is facing multiple rigid constraints, resulting in a tight supply situation. Native lead production is hindered by seasonal adjustments and maintenance in key regions, while recycled lead faces raw material shortages due to high recovery prices and limited output [3] - Global lead inventories are on a downward trend, with London Metal Exchange stocks decreasing, although domestic social inventories remain low, amplifying the market impact of any supply disruptions [3] Demand Side - The downstream demand for lead shows significant structural differentiation, but core areas maintain rigid demand, particularly in the automotive sector, which continues to drive stable battery replacement needs [3] - Policies encouraging battery replacement and the stable demand from energy storage and communication backup markets support the overall demand for lead, despite pressures from export markets [3] Industry Chain Status - The lead industry chain is at a critical stage of intensified upstream-downstream competition and accelerated structural upgrades. Upstream supply remains tight, while the recycling market for waste batteries shows stable pricing [4] - The midstream smelting sector is consolidating, with leading companies enhancing resource utilization efficiency and scale advantages [4] Leading Enterprises Dynamics - Industry leaders are actively strengthening their competitive advantages through strategic resource control and value chain extension, including cross-border acquisitions to mitigate raw material price volatility [5] - Financially, leading companies are optimizing cash flow during high market conditions to support long-term growth, showing stronger profitability compared to midstream and downstream firms facing cost pressures [5] Market Trading and Price Forecast - Current market trading reflects a tight supply-demand balance, with sellers maintaining firm pricing due to tight supplies, while downstream purchasing remains cautious [5] - Short-term price expectations for lead indicate a continued oscillation downward, with attention to key market variables [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The price of lead is currently in a state of shock, and the downstream of the lead variety may experience a slight increase in starting operations after the New Year's Day. However, if subsequent orders remain sluggish, some enterprises may consider reducing their loads or arranging holidays again. Meanwhile, the supply of the ore end remains relatively tight, and the processing fee is still at a low level. Therefore, the current lead price may oscillate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,900 yuan/ton. Operations can carry out buy and sell hedging as needed within the above range [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On January 15, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.33/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,375 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -200 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, 10,175 yuan/ton, and 10,375 yuan/ton respectively [2] Futures Market - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,455 yuan/ton and closed at 17,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 88,441 lots, an increase of 40,261 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position for the whole trading day was 78,429 lots, an increase of 7,992 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,680 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,585 yuan/ton and closed at 17,710 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [3] Inventory Situation - On January 15, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 33,000 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 15, the LME lead inventory was 211,400 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [4] Market Transactions - According to SMM news, the SMM1 lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Smelters in Henan Province quoted prices at par with SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and the discount of traders' quotations widened to a discount of 220 - 180 yuan/ton for the SHFE 2602 contract for ex-factory; smelters in Hunan Province quoted prices at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders quoted prices at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead or a discount of 240 - 200 yuan/ton for the SHFE 2602 contract for ex-factory; holders in Yunnan Province quoted prices at a discount of 300 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead for ex-factory. The inventory digestion of lead ingots in smelters was slow. Some holders actively widened the discount to sell goods, but the downstream's enthusiasm for taking delivery was poor. Some holders continued to transfer lead ingots to social warehouses, and the overall trading in the spot market was relatively light [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recent rise in lead prices is driven by macroeconomic easing expectations, interconnections within the non-ferrous sector, and geopolitical supply risks, particularly due to ongoing conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [1][2] - The supply side of the lead market is facing multiple constraints, including tight supplies of lead concentrate and scrap batteries, which are pushing up smelting costs, and limited production increases due to seasonal, environmental, and profit factors [1][2] - The demand side shows a robust and structurally growing landscape, with significant battery replacement needs from electric bicycles and vehicles, as well as expanding applications in the energy storage sector [2] Group 2 - The lead industry is currently in a tight balance, with low inventory levels acting as a key support for prices, as any supply disruptions or demand improvements can significantly impact price fluctuations [2] - Leading companies in the industry are demonstrating stable and positive performance, with new capacity gradually being released and efforts to optimize costs through resource recycling and increasing the proportion of recycled lead [2] - The current spot market for lead is showing strong trading activity, with tight supply and essential purchasing from downstream sectors providing a foundation for transactions, leading to expectations of a short-term upward price trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall consumption is still sluggish, and it is difficult for the lead price to perform well. The lead price may fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton. Operators can conduct buy and sell hedging as needed within this range [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 13, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.63/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -150 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 10,200 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On January 13, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,480 yuan/ton and closed at 17,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 33,329 lots, a decrease of 5,038 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 34,986 lots, a decrease of 5,327 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,495 yuan/ton and a low of 17,270 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,435 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the afternoon of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally weak spot market [2] Inventory - On January 13, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 13, the LME lead inventory was 218,925 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The downstream of the lead industry may experience a slight increase in production after the New Year's Day. However, some enterprises may consider reducing production or arranging holidays if orders remain sluggish. The supply of lead ore remains tight, and processing fees are still low. Therefore, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton. Operators can conduct buy and sell hedging as needed within this range [4]