Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract 2601 of Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with the attention range of 16,900 - 17,300 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: As of November 20, the Shanghai lead futures showed a high - level decline this week. The Shanghai lead 2601 contract fell 1.91%. The weak US economic data and the gradual decline in market demand led to the high - level decline [4]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, primary lead smelters are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range before the improvement of raw material supply. Secondary lead smelters' output is increasing. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery market has changed. The new national standard has opened up the market space for large - capacity lead - acid batteries, but it is difficult to maintain the improvement. From a macro perspective, the recent hawkish remarks of Fed officials have dampened market sentiment. It is expected that the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate within a wide range next week [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic and foreign futures prices of Shanghai lead declined, and the ratio weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures price was $2,010.5 per ton, and the active contract of Shanghai lead was 17,220 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.57 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and foreign premium strengthened. As of November 20, 2025, the Chinese futures premium was - 75 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $28.91 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventories increased, domestic inventories decreased, warehouse receipt numbers increased, and overall lead inventories increased. As of November 20, 2025, the total lead inventory was 3.64 tons, a decrease of 0.45 million tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,650 tons, an increase of 42,175 tons. The number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 30,556 tons, an increase of 4,732 tons [31][35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side** - **Production**: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises increased, and production rose. As of November 13, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 71.37%, an increase of 1.82% from the previous week, and the weekly output was 38,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises remained unchanged, and production increased. As of November 13, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the average capacity utilization rate was 55.99%, a month - on - month decrease of 0% [20][29]. - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, refined lead exports decreased significantly, and refined lead imports declined. The export volume of refined lead was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decline of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import volume of refined lead was 1,507.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 94.69% [37][39]. - **Demand Side** - **Processing Fees**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fees and imported ore processing fees remained flat. Currently, the shortage of lead ore is obvious, affecting production. As of November 13, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was 340 yuan per ton, and the average processing fee of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $90 per thousand tons [41][43]. - **Automobile Sales**: In October 2025, the overall automobile sales increased. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the lithium - for - lead process accelerated, leading to a decline in lead demand [45][48]. - **Recycling and Prices**: The recycling price of waste batteries was stable, the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased, the domestic demand gradually weakened, and lead recycling did not change much. As of November 20, 2025, the average price of waste lead (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy in Shanghai was 19,330 yuan per ton [50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy:暂缓 (No English equivalent provided in the context, so keeping it as is) [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the processing fee of lead concentrate remains low despite the rising by - product prices, and there are no significant contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. The lead price is expected to show a volatile pattern, roughly ranging from 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 38.22 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,925 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,160 yuan/ton, closed at 17,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 66,594 lots, an increase of 30,286 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position was 43,988 lots, a decrease of 807 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,290 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,085 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Consumption and Inventory - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, holders offered at a discount of 130 - 60 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract; in Hunan, smelters offered at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract, and some traders offered at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead; in Guangdong, smelters offered at a premium of 25 - 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead. Downstream consumption showed no improvement, and battery enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, resulting in a dull trading in the spot market. On October 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of October 13, the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The demand for downstream lead-acid batteries is showing signs of a slight recovery, while the supply of raw materials remains relatively tight. In September, several smelters are scheduled for maintenance, and it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. With the resonance of macroeconomic and fundamental factors, lead prices may gradually rise, with a fluctuation range of 16,960 yuan/ton to 17,320 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On September 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.54 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton, 10,075 yuan/ton, and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On September 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 54,978 lots, a decrease of 3,688 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 45,095 lots, a decrease of 1,961 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,155 yuan/ton and a low of 17,005 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,075 yuan/ton and closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On September 16, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 69,000 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 227,850 tons, a decrease of 3,950 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material - lead concentrate remains in short supply. The processing fees for domestic lead concentrates rich in gold, silver and high - silver content silver - lead ores have decreased, and the supply of imported lead concentrates rich in precious metals and small metals is tight with a significant decline in tender prices. The supply of scrap batteries is still tight, but as the lead price drops, the losses of secondary lead smelters widen, and the scrap battery prices have loosened [3]. - On the supply side, the primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance are resuming production. For secondary lead, the start - up rate is slowly increasing with the expectation of the peak season, but the raw material price decline is less than that of the lead price, and the uncertainty of smelter start - up is high [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream shows a differentiated trend. The demand for electric bicycles is good, and enterprises are increasing their purchases of lead ingots. The export of lead - acid batteries for complete vehicles is affected by weak demand and tariffs, and the start - up rate has not improved significantly [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, the price of secondary lead is inverted compared with electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead. Although the inventory of secondary lead plants is decreasing, the overall social inventory of lead ingots is still increasing [3]. - Considering the support from the raw material side, it is expected that the short - term decline space of the lead price is limited, and the operating range is expected to be between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to the start - up situation of secondary lead smelters under the conditions of cost inversion and raw material shortage [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.19% to 16,550 yuan/ton week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 1.30% to 16,735 yuan/ton. The closing price (electronic trading) of London lead decreased by 2.30% to 1,974 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text other than showing the historical basis data graphs. 3.2 Raw Material Situation - **Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton week - on - week, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight concentrate supply remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 25, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 101.5 yuan/ton [25]. - **Scrap Batteries**: As of August 1, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the lead price dropped, the losses of smelters widened, and the scrap battery prices slightly followed the downward trend [39]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: The start - up rate of primary lead increased to 63.9% week - on - week. The total weekly output of major primary lead smelters increased from 46,875 tons in the week of July 25 to 51,325 tons this week, mainly due to the resumption of production after maintenance in some regions [26][31]. - **Secondary Lead**: The start - up rate of secondary lead increased by 3.7 percentage points to 44.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 47,500 tons, showing an upward trend. A large - scale smelter in Inner Mongolia resumed production and increased output, driving the significant increase in the start - up rate. However, the supply of scrap batteries is still tight, and some smelters said they would stop production when the raw materials are insufficient to support production [49]. 3.4 Demand Side The start - up rate of lead - acid batteries remained flat at 71.86%. The electric bicycle industry has entered the traditional peak season, and some enterprises have increased production and built inventories. Especially after the lead price dropped, the purchasing enthusiasm improved significantly. The production of automotive lead - acid batteries is mainly based on sales [55]. 3.5 Import and Export - As of July 25, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of August 1, the import profit was - 528.2 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 31, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 73,000 tons, showing an increase. Although the inventory of mainstream smelters decreased, the overall social inventory increased due to the phased increase in supply [75]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of August 1, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 63,300 tons, showing a week - on - week increase. As of July 31, the LME inventory was 275,300 tons, also showing an increase [78]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the production, export, import, consumption and inventory data of primary lead and secondary lead from August 2024 to June 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different months [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently experiencing a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some areas of primary lead production, but overall terminal demand has not shown significant improvement, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, lead prices in the non - ferrous metals sector are unlikely to drop significantly. Therefore, the price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 23.42 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16775 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10525 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the day, the Shanghai lead futures showed a weak and volatile trend. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On July 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16960 yuan/ton and closed at 16915 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 72526 lots, a change of 25763 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest for the whole trading day was 70546 lots, a change of - 2781 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17085 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16985 yuan/ton and closed at 16945 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On July 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 7.2 million tons, a change of 0.03 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 28, the LME lead inventory was 263650 tons, a change of - 3050 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. Considering the strong support from the raw material side, it is expected that the lead price will mainly fluctuate within a range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro - factors on the lead price [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% to 16,925 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 1.27% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.94% to 2,017 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: No specific summary was made in the content, only historical basis data trends were presented [13][14][15]. 2. Raw Materials and Primary Lead - **Raw Materials**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 550 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply of lead concentrates is expected to continue, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 4, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 82.7 yuan/ton [29]. - **Primary Lead Production**: The primary lead operating rate decreased to 66.88%. A refinery in Henan reduced its weekly output due to equipment failure and is expected to resume normal production this week. A refinery in North China is expected to end maintenance and resume production in mid - to - late July. Another smelter in East China plans a long - term maintenance in the fourth quarter [30][34]. - **Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelters**: The total annual production capacity is 3.29 million tons, the monthly production capacity is 260,000 tons, and the weekly production capacity is 63,300 tons. The total output in the week of July 4 was 49,065 tons, in the week of July 11 was 47,815 tons, and this week's expected output is 49,065 tons [35]. 3. Recycled Lead - **Waste Battery Price**: As of July 11, the average price of waste batteries was 10,300 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The tight supply of waste batteries has not improved, and the purchase price has not changed significantly [43]. - **Recycled Lead Smelter Profit**: As of July 11, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 408 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 636 yuan/ton [49]. - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory**: As of July 10, the raw material inventory of recycled lead increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The raw material inventory was 126,500 tons, and the finished product inventory was 22,400 tons [53]. - **Recycled Lead Operating Rate**: The recycled lead enterprise operating rate increased by 0.70 percentage points to 35.5%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of recycled lead was 37,000 tons, showing a decline. A refinery in Anhui that was under maintenance has recently restarted the furnace but has not yet produced lead. A refinery in Inner Mongolia has no plan to resume production in the near future, and the operating rate fluctuates slightly [54]. 4. Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 70.76%. The domestic electric bicycle and battery markets have not improved significantly. Dealers are mainly consuming inventory, and enterprise orders are weak. The export pressure of lead batteries is increasing as the US tariff suspension period is about to end [59]. 5. Import and Export - As of July 4, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of July 11, the import profit was - 741.56 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [64]. 6. Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 63,400 tons, showing an increase. Downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices, and inventory has accumulated due to the large spot - futures price difference [75]. - **SHFE and LME Inventory**: As of July 11, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 55,100 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 249,400 tons, showing a decrease [78]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from January 2024 to May 2025 [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [4] - Option strategy: Sell put options [5] 2. Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and downstream enterprises are gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with spot procurement starting to pick up. It is recommended to mainly use buying hedging on dips for lead products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data - **Spot**: On July 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.04/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 100 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price rose by 100 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells rose by 50 yuan/ton to 10,575 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,190 yuan/ton and closed at 17,175 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 33,005 lots, down 2,644 lots from the previous trading day, and the holding volume was 52,261 lots, up 644 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,280 yuan/ton and a low of 17,125 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex - factory; in Hunan, smelters' quotes remained at a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract; in Jiangxi, holders' quotes at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory had difficulty in closing deals; in Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 220 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory. The lead price was in a volatile consolidation, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, with regional transactions in the electrolytic lead market being fair [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the same period last week. As of July 9, the LME lead inventory was 255,100 tons, a decrease of 2,975 tons from the previous trading day [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - As the lead - acid battery consumption season approaches, the rising price has stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm with a significant "buy - on - rising" feature. The improvement of macro - sentiment and the spill - over of risk sentiment will benefit the lead price. For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, buying hedging on dips can be carried out between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On July 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 26.77 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose 75 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 17050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 17025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium rose 75 yuan/ton to 17100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 3, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17235 yuan/ton and closed at 17245 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34446 lots, an increase of 6922 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 52878 lots, an increase of 1624 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 17315 yuan/ton and the lowest at 17195 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17220 yuan/ton and closed at 17305 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The lead price is oscillating strongly. Downstream enterprises' operations are in the transition period between the off - season and peak season. Some enterprises are making necessary inventory preparations, and the spot trading in the primary lead market is fair [2] Inventory - On July 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons from the same period last week. As of July 3, the LME lead inventory was 265900 tons, a decrease of 2250 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, buying hedging on dips can be carried out between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at 16,500 yuan/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoint - As the traditional consumption peak season for lead batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the probability of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low, and there may be a possibility of a short squeeze. It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.26/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,925 yuan/ton, closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,403 lots, an increase of 8,197 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 19,560 lots, a decrease of 8,713 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,005 yuan/ton and a low of 16,870 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,090 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price for ex-factory sales, and traders offered discounts of 200 - 130 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507/2508 contracts for ex-factory sales. In the Hunan region, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, but the trading volume was weak. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui regions offered premiums of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Individual traders in Guangdong and Tianjin regions had firm quotes and were waiting and seeing. The lead futures price rose slightly during the day, and downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement. The overall market trading volume was light [2] Inventory - On June 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 24, the LME lead inventory was 277,375 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3]

Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demands from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price should be treated with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -31.32 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On June 19, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,925 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,967 lots, an increase of 1,410 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 33,907 lots, a decrease of 6,147 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,965 yuan/ton and the lowest point at 16,760 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On June 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of June 19, the LME lead inventory was 287,425 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Treat the lead price with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4]