供应端：多重约束下的系统性收缩 供应紧张并非源于产能不足，而是由成本、资源和政策共同塑造的结构性收紧。原生铅生产受制于铅精 矿供应偏紧与加工费长期低迷，利润空间被极致压缩，产量增长意愿与能力均受限。再生铅则面临更复 杂的局面：作为主原料的废电瓶供应呈现"结构性紧张"，回收体系面临规范化和成本上升的挑战，同时 趋严的环保要求进一步限制了产能释放。整个供应侧的弹性正在减弱。 需求端：传统引擎失速，新增长点缺位 今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅上涨，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报16800元，高点报16980元，低点报 16705元，结算价报16850元，收盘报16880元/吨，涨70元，涨幅0.42%。今日沪铅2601主力合约成交 56461手，持仓量62177手增加6505手。伦铅最新价报1976美元，涨16美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报16810-16910元/吨，均价报16860元，价格较前一日上 涨20元；广东现货市场1#铅报16835-16935元/吨，均价16885元，价格较前一日价格上涨75元。今日现 货铅市场报价在16725-16935元/吨之间，对比沪期铅2601合约贴水 ...

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅下跌，沪铅主力合约2601开盘报16825元，高点报16855元，低点报 16680元，结算价报16770元，收盘报16735元/吨，跌140元，跌幅0.83%。今日沪铅2601主力合约成交 40173手，持仓量26930手减少2802手。伦铅最新价报1943美元，涨1美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报16790-16890元/吨，均价报16840元，价格较前一日下 跌70元；广东现货市场1#铅报16760-16860元/吨，均价16810元，价格较前一日价格下跌50元。今日现 货铅市场报价在16700-16890元/吨之间，对比沪期铅2601合约贴水报80-升水110元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：宏观面：当前铅价走势正受到宏观与基本面的多空因素交织影响，市场缺乏单边驱 动，整体呈现"宏观预期与产业现实博弈"的震荡格局，外部美元走势趋弱为金属价格提供了底部计价支 撑，而国内以扩大内需为导向的稳增长政策，有望对汽车蓄电池更换、电动两轮车消费等传统领域带来 边际提振，稳定了市场对需求韧性的预期。但上行空间同样受到多重压制。海外主要经济体增长动能放 缓的担忧抑制 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 现货成交相对清淡 铅价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-09，LME铅现货升水为-51.57美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至17100 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100元 /吨至17125元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17125元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-75元/吨至17125元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9900元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10250元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-09，沪铅主力合约开于17310元/吨，收于17170元/吨，较前一交易日变化-170元/吨，全天交易 日成交35748手，较前一交易日变化-2313手，全天交易日持仓40620手，手较前一交易日变化-2487手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17345元/吨，最低点达到1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-09 下游刚需采购 铅价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-08，LME铅现货升水为-49.15美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17200 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至20.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至17225元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17200元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化0元/吨至17200元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化25元/ 吨至9900元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10250元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-08，沪铅主力合约开于17340元/吨，收于17340元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨，全天交易日 成交38061手，较前一交易日变化-6447手，全天交易日持仓43107手，手较前一交易日变化-1837手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17380元/吨，最低点达到17275元/吨。夜盘方 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-27 盘中出现极端价格 铅价或可逢高沽空 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-26，LME铅现货升水为-35.57美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17000元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 17075元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9950 元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10300元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-26，沪铅主力合约开于17065元/吨，收于17065元/吨，较前一交易日变化20元/吨，全天交易日 成交40187手，较前一交易日变化-309手，全天交易日持仓49033手，手较前一交易日变化-3433手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17130元/吨，最低点达到17030元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract 2601 of Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with the attention range of 16,900 - 17,300 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: As of November 20, the Shanghai lead futures showed a high - level decline this week. The Shanghai lead 2601 contract fell 1.91%. The weak US economic data and the gradual decline in market demand led to the high - level decline [4]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, primary lead smelters are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range before the improvement of raw material supply. Secondary lead smelters' output is increasing. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery market has changed. The new national standard has opened up the market space for large - capacity lead - acid batteries, but it is difficult to maintain the improvement. From a macro perspective, the recent hawkish remarks of Fed officials have dampened market sentiment. It is expected that the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate within a wide range next week [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic and foreign futures prices of Shanghai lead declined, and the ratio weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures price was $2,010.5 per ton, and the active contract of Shanghai lead was 17,220 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.57 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and foreign premium strengthened. As of November 20, 2025, the Chinese futures premium was - 75 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $28.91 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventories increased, domestic inventories decreased, warehouse receipt numbers increased, and overall lead inventories increased. As of November 20, 2025, the total lead inventory was 3.64 tons, a decrease of 0.45 million tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,650 tons, an increase of 42,175 tons. The number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 30,556 tons, an increase of 4,732 tons [31][35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side** - **Production**: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises increased, and production rose. As of November 13, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 71.37%, an increase of 1.82% from the previous week, and the weekly output was 38,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises remained unchanged, and production increased. As of November 13, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the average capacity utilization rate was 55.99%, a month - on - month decrease of 0% [20][29]. - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, refined lead exports decreased significantly, and refined lead imports declined. The export volume of refined lead was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decline of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import volume of refined lead was 1,507.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 94.69% [37][39]. - **Demand Side** - **Processing Fees**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fees and imported ore processing fees remained flat. Currently, the shortage of lead ore is obvious, affecting production. As of November 13, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was 340 yuan per ton, and the average processing fee of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $90 per thousand tons [41][43]. - **Automobile Sales**: In October 2025, the overall automobile sales increased. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the lithium - for - lead process accelerated, leading to a decline in lead demand [45][48]. - **Recycling and Prices**: The recycling price of waste batteries was stable, the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased, the domestic demand gradually weakened, and lead recycling did not change much. As of November 20, 2025, the average price of waste lead (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy in Shanghai was 19,330 yuan per ton [50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy:暂缓 (No English equivalent provided in the context, so keeping it as is) [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the processing fee of lead concentrate remains low despite the rising by - product prices, and there are no significant contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. The lead price is expected to show a volatile pattern, roughly ranging from 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 38.22 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,925 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,160 yuan/ton, closed at 17,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 66,594 lots, an increase of 30,286 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position was 43,988 lots, a decrease of 807 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,290 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,085 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Consumption and Inventory - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, holders offered at a discount of 130 - 60 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract; in Hunan, smelters offered at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract, and some traders offered at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead; in Guangdong, smelters offered at a premium of 25 - 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead. Downstream consumption showed no improvement, and battery enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, resulting in a dull trading in the spot market. On October 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of October 13, the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The demand for downstream lead-acid batteries is showing signs of a slight recovery, while the supply of raw materials remains relatively tight. In September, several smelters are scheduled for maintenance, and it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. With the resonance of macroeconomic and fundamental factors, lead prices may gradually rise, with a fluctuation range of 16,960 yuan/ton to 17,320 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On September 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.54 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton, 10,075 yuan/ton, and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On September 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 54,978 lots, a decrease of 3,688 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 45,095 lots, a decrease of 1,961 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,155 yuan/ton and a low of 17,005 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,075 yuan/ton and closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On September 16, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 69,000 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 227,850 tons, a decrease of 3,950 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material - lead concentrate remains in short supply. The processing fees for domestic lead concentrates rich in gold, silver and high - silver content silver - lead ores have decreased, and the supply of imported lead concentrates rich in precious metals and small metals is tight with a significant decline in tender prices. The supply of scrap batteries is still tight, but as the lead price drops, the losses of secondary lead smelters widen, and the scrap battery prices have loosened [3]. - On the supply side, the primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance are resuming production. For secondary lead, the start - up rate is slowly increasing with the expectation of the peak season, but the raw material price decline is less than that of the lead price, and the uncertainty of smelter start - up is high [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream shows a differentiated trend. The demand for electric bicycles is good, and enterprises are increasing their purchases of lead ingots. The export of lead - acid batteries for complete vehicles is affected by weak demand and tariffs, and the start - up rate has not improved significantly [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, the price of secondary lead is inverted compared with electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead. Although the inventory of secondary lead plants is decreasing, the overall social inventory of lead ingots is still increasing [3]. - Considering the support from the raw material side, it is expected that the short - term decline space of the lead price is limited, and the operating range is expected to be between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to the start - up situation of secondary lead smelters under the conditions of cost inversion and raw material shortage [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.19% to 16,550 yuan/ton week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 1.30% to 16,735 yuan/ton. The closing price (electronic trading) of London lead decreased by 2.30% to 1,974 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text other than showing the historical basis data graphs. 3.2 Raw Material Situation - **Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton week - on - week, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight concentrate supply remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 25, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 101.5 yuan/ton [25]. - **Scrap Batteries**: As of August 1, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the lead price dropped, the losses of smelters widened, and the scrap battery prices slightly followed the downward trend [39]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: The start - up rate of primary lead increased to 63.9% week - on - week. The total weekly output of major primary lead smelters increased from 46,875 tons in the week of July 25 to 51,325 tons this week, mainly due to the resumption of production after maintenance in some regions [26][31]. - **Secondary Lead**: The start - up rate of secondary lead increased by 3.7 percentage points to 44.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 47,500 tons, showing an upward trend. A large - scale smelter in Inner Mongolia resumed production and increased output, driving the significant increase in the start - up rate. However, the supply of scrap batteries is still tight, and some smelters said they would stop production when the raw materials are insufficient to support production [49]. 3.4 Demand Side The start - up rate of lead - acid batteries remained flat at 71.86%. The electric bicycle industry has entered the traditional peak season, and some enterprises have increased production and built inventories. Especially after the lead price dropped, the purchasing enthusiasm improved significantly. The production of automotive lead - acid batteries is mainly based on sales [55]. 3.5 Import and Export - As of July 25, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of August 1, the import profit was - 528.2 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 31, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 73,000 tons, showing an increase. Although the inventory of mainstream smelters decreased, the overall social inventory increased due to the phased increase in supply [75]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of August 1, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 63,300 tons, showing a week - on - week increase. As of July 31, the LME inventory was 275,300 tons, also showing an increase [78]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the production, export, import, consumption and inventory data of primary lead and secondary lead from August 2024 to June 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different months [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently experiencing a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some areas of primary lead production, but overall terminal demand has not shown significant improvement, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, lead prices in the non - ferrous metals sector are unlikely to drop significantly. Therefore, the price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 23.42 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16775 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10525 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the day, the Shanghai lead futures showed a weak and volatile trend. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On July 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16960 yuan/ton and closed at 16915 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 72526 lots, a change of 25763 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest for the whole trading day was 70546 lots, a change of - 2781 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17085 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16985 yuan/ton and closed at 16945 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On July 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 7.2 million tons, a change of 0.03 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 28, the LME lead inventory was 263650 tons, a change of - 3050 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]