1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic mine supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have a low willingness to purchase high-silver mines. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, supported by the demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reach 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price is treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract ranges from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 26, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$36.18/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,325 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,350 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,775 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,505 yuan/ton and closed at 16,460 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 57,200 lots, a change of -381 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position for the whole trading day was 75,091 lots, a change of -4,034 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,570 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,385 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,390 yuan/ton and closed at 16,365 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decrease compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 120 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 or 2605 lead contracts for ex-factory sales, and the prices with current-month invoices were relatively high. In Hunan, smelters and traders maintained premium sales, and the scattered orders were sold at a premium of 30 - 60 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales, with some rigid demand transactions. In the Tianjin market, holders quoted at a discount of 110 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 lead contract for self-pickup transactions. The lead price continued the slight upward trend, and downstream battery enterprises made rigid purchases. The regional transactions in the spot market were acceptable [2] Inventory - On March 26, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, a change of -5,300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 27, the LME lead inventory was 283,100 tons, a change of -50 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The processing fee at the mine end remains stable. The operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead first decreased and then increased, but the resumption of production was slow. The secondary lead was deeply in a loss pattern and difficult to change. Terminal consumption gradually recovered after a seasonal decline, but the willingness to replenish inventory was weak. The domestic and foreign inventories both reached new highs, suppressing the upside space of lead prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 5, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.23/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The waste electric vehicle battery price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton. The waste white shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The waste black shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On March 5, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,775 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, a change of -65 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 38,944 lots, a change of -7,828 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 59,365 lots, a change of -411 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,880 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,770 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,775 yuan/ton and closed at 16,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% compared with the afternoon closing yesterday [2]. Inventory - On March 5, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 67,000 tons, a change of 300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 5, the LME lead inventory was 285,900 tons, a change of -200 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]. Strategy - Pay attention to the inventory inflection point in mid - to late March and the resumption progress of secondary lead production. It is recommended that smelting enterprises hedge at high prices to lock in profits, downstream enterprises replenish inventory on - demand at low prices, and investors be cautiously bullish, paying attention to the breakthrough of the 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton range. Enterprises with different buy or sell hedging needs can conduct buy or sell hedging operations at the upper and lower edges of the range [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - The processing fee at the mine end remains stable. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead first decline and then rise but the resumption is slow, and the recycled lead remains deeply in a loss pattern. The terminal consumption gradually recovers after a seasonal decline, but the willingness to replenish inventory is weak. Both domestic and foreign inventories have reached new highs, suppressing the upward space of lead prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Spot - On March 4, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.27/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Market News and Important Data - Futures - On March 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 46,772 lots, a change of -6,889 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 59,776 lots, a change of -439 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 16,860 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,740 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,775 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase compared with the afternoon close of the previous day [2] Market News and Important Data - Inventory - On March 4, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 67,000 tons, a change of -20 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 4, the LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Be neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point in mid-to-late March and the resumption progress of recycled lead production. It is recommended that smelting enterprises hedge at high prices to lock in profits, downstream enterprises replenish inventory on demand at low prices, and investors be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton range. Enterprises with different needs for buying or selling hedges can conduct buying or selling hedge operations at the upper and lower limits of the range [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The processing fee at the mine end remains stable. The operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead first decline and then rise, but the resumption of production is slow, and the secondary lead is deeply in a loss pattern. The terminal consumption gradually recovers after the seasonal decline, but the willingness to replenish inventory is weak. The domestic and foreign inventories have reached new highs, suppressing the upward space of lead prices [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 2, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.63/ton. The spot price of SMM 1 lead ingot remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 16,575 yuan/ton. The spot premium of SMM Shanghai lead remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead was 16,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Henan lead was 16,575 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of SMM Tianjin lead increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged from the previous trading day at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,805 yuan/ton and closed at 16,895 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 60,587 lots, an increase of 11,518 lots from the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 63,962 lots, an increase of 118 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 16,930 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,755 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,945 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 2, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the same period last week. As of March 2, the LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral view. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point in mid - to late March and the resumption progress of secondary lead production. It is recommended that smelting enterprises hedge at high prices to lock in profits, downstream enterprises replenish inventory on - demand at low prices, and investors be cautiously bullish, paying attention to the breakthrough situation in the range of 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton. Enterprises with different hedging needs for buying or selling can conduct buying or selling hedging operations at the upper and lower limits of the range [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [3] Core View - Around the Spring Festival, the lead market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand and continuously increasing inventory. The processing fee at the mine end was stable, the operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead were differentiated, and the losses of secondary lead continued. The terminal lead - acid battery enterprises had centralized holidays, consumption dropped to the bottom, and the social inventory reached a new high in nearly 5 months. After the festival, the resumption of secondary lead production was earlier than the downstream inventory digestion, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 26, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.37/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,715 yuan/ton and closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 55,290 lots, a change of - 12,415 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 64,924 lots, a change of - 7,072 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,700 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,800 yuan/ton and closed at 16,800 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, the quotes of holders were at a discount of 230 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 contract, with different selling attitudes and a large price difference, and it was difficult to conclude transactions for supplies with a discount of less than 200 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, Jiangxi and other regions, the ex - factory quotes of smelters' pick - up supplies were at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and they were waiting and reluctant to sell. Downstream enterprises made small - volume purchases based on rigid demand, and the inquiry enthusiasm increased slightly compared with the previous two days, but the downstream still mainly consumed the pre - festival inventory, and the overall trading of lead ingot scattered orders was light [2] Inventory - On February 26, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a change of 3,100 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 27, the LME lead inventory was 286,300 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range of 16,350 - 16,900 yuan/ton for the main contract of Shanghai lead, but in the first week after the festival, it is still recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies, pay attention to the pressure level of 16,950 yuan/ton, and the support level below is 16,300 yuan/ton. On the spot side, postpone the stockpiling and wait for the discount to expand to more than 200 yuan/ton before intervening. Focus on the downstream resumption of work and inventory reduction rhythm after the Lantern Festival. For options, sell call options [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, both supply and demand in the lead market decline, with logistics halted and enterprises on holiday, resulting in light trading. Inventory is transferred to social warehouses, and it is expected that inventory will accumulate significantly after the festival, leading to a weak and volatile lead price [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On February 12, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.07 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 16,575 yuan per ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to 0.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,625 yuan per ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,575 yuan per ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,650 yuan per ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan per ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 9,850 yuan per ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan per ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On February 12, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,800 yuan per ton and closed at 16,695 yuan per ton, a decrease of 45 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 29,928 lots, a decrease of 48 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 32,162 lots, a decrease of 5,898 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 16,805 yuan per ton and a minimum of 16,685 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,700 yuan per ton and closed at 16,705 yuan per ton, a 0.30% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On February 12, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 54,000 tons, a change of 4,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 232,900 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is advisable to conduct sell hedging operations when the price returns above 16,900 yuan per ton, but the position should not be too heavy approaching the Spring Festival [3] Option Strategy - Sell a wide straddle [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand in the lead market decline. Logistics stops and enterprises go on holiday, resulting in light trading. Inventory is transferred to social warehouses, and it is expected that there will be a significant inventory build - up after the festival, with lead prices oscillating weakly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 10, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.30 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 125 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton and 10,200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On February 10, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,665 yuan/ton and closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 58,100 lots, an increase of 8,455 lots compared with the previous trading day. The positions for the whole trading day were 42,295 lots, a decrease of 8,010 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,560 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 1,660 yuan/ton and closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the afternoon close of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price rose 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Near the Spring Festival, smelters only maintained a small amount of long - term order shipments and had cleared their scattered inventories, and market quotations gradually decreased. In Henan, holders offered at a discount of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2603 contract for post - holiday delivery. In Hunan, although smelters' inventories were sold out and offered at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, some holders in the trading market sold at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. In Yunnan, holders offered at a discount of 225 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. Recently, the lead price rebounded slightly. As smelters gradually went on holiday near the Spring Festival, downstream consumption also declined, and overall market trading was light [2] Inventory - On February 10, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 50,000 tons, a change of 9,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 232,750 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Strategy - A sell - hedging operation can be carried out when the price returns above 16,900 yuan/ton, but the position should not be too heavy near the Spring Festival [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In January 2026, the lead price oscillated weakly, the losses of secondary lead expanded, forcing large - scale production cuts. Terminal demand was differentiated but overall weak, and the continuous accumulation of domestic visible inventory suppressed the price center. In February, the Spring Festival holiday will intensify the pattern of double - decline in supply and demand. The concentrated shutdown of upstream and downstream will put the market into a closed state. The contraction of the supply side is expected to relieve the inventory pressure, but the lag in terminal resumption of work may keep the price oscillating weakly near the cost line. The expected oscillation range of the lead price in February is between 16,600 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 5, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$51.45/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,375 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,450 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by -50 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 5, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,585 yuan/ton and closed at 16,555 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 44,073 lots, a change of -6,760 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 54,708 lots, a change of -3,568 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,640 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,530 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,550 yuan/ton and closed at 16,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price fell by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were not large, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for closing deals. The lead price continued to weaken, downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was weak [2] Inventory - On February 5, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 40,000 tons, a change of 3,700 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 5, the LME lead inventory was 232,850 tons, a change of 0 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of the lead industry is weak, with both smelting finished - product inventory and social inventory rising. The expectation of the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman on January 30th triggered a retreat in market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently highly volatile. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd on the sector's sentiment [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 102,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 42 to 2,004 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 167,900 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,675 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,625 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 29th was 38,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 26th. The domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 275 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 207,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 20,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.72 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 130.1 dollars/ton. - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 549.49 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. At the recycled end, the lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 69.0% [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In December 2025, the domestic lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total lead concentrate production was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17]. - **Total Supply and Overseas Production**: In December 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In November 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 264,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.49% and a month - on - month change of 1.85%. From January to November, the total overseas lead ore production was 2,674,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.42% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 250 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead output was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total primary lead ingot production was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26]. 3.3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, the lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead output was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total recycled lead ingot production was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33]. - **Net Export and Total Supply**: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 69.0%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - **Battery Export**: In December 2025, the net export volume of batteries containing lead was 1,664,900 units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, a cumulative net export year - on - year change of - 13.06% [41]. - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle segment, the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, but the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries with lithium - iron phosphate batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption due to replacement demand. In the base station segment, the rapid development of communication technology has led to an increase in the number of communication and 5G base stations, driving a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 12,400 tons [62]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons. From January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [65]. 3.6. Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 29th was 38,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 26th. The domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 275 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 207,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 20,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.72 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 130.1 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 549.49 yuan/ton [70][72][75]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned net short, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [78].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, influenced by macroeconomic policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and structural changes in the industry, leading to a stable yet cautious price outlook for lead. Supply Side - The lead market is facing multiple rigid constraints, resulting in a tight supply situation. Native lead production is hindered by seasonal adjustments and maintenance in key regions, while recycled lead faces raw material shortages due to high recovery prices and limited output [3] - Global lead inventories are on a downward trend, with London Metal Exchange stocks decreasing, although domestic social inventories remain low, amplifying the market impact of any supply disruptions [3] Demand Side - The downstream demand for lead shows significant structural differentiation, but core areas maintain rigid demand, particularly in the automotive sector, which continues to drive stable battery replacement needs [3] - Policies encouraging battery replacement and the stable demand from energy storage and communication backup markets support the overall demand for lead, despite pressures from export markets [3] Industry Chain Status - The lead industry chain is at a critical stage of intensified upstream-downstream competition and accelerated structural upgrades. Upstream supply remains tight, while the recycling market for waste batteries shows stable pricing [4] - The midstream smelting sector is consolidating, with leading companies enhancing resource utilization efficiency and scale advantages [4] Leading Enterprises Dynamics - Industry leaders are actively strengthening their competitive advantages through strategic resource control and value chain extension, including cross-border acquisitions to mitigate raw material price volatility [5] - Financially, leading companies are optimizing cash flow during high market conditions to support long-term growth, showing stronger profitability compared to midstream and downstream firms facing cost pressures [5] Market Trading and Price Forecast - Current market trading reflects a tight supply-demand balance, with sellers maintaining firm pricing due to tight supplies, while downstream purchasing remains cautious [5] - Short-term price expectations for lead indicate a continued oscillation downward, with attention to key market variables [5]