Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The improvement in lead consumption has increased the downstream's enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement, and the domestic social lead inventory has dropped to its lowest level in over a year. Positive factors for the terminal demand of the non - ferrous sector revealed in domestic important meetings have led to a significant increase in lead prices this week. However, due to the intermittent interference of trade dispute uncertainties and the suppression of demand caused by rising lead prices, the possibility of a continuous sharp increase in lead prices in the future is relatively low. The recommended trading strategy for next week is to buy on dips for hedging, with a suggested buying range of 17,250 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Lead Market Analysis - **Mine End**: In the week of October 24, the import ore market trading was stagnant, and sporadic quotes had little reference value. Domestically, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other places were still in the process of winter storage, and partial maintenance slightly eased the supply pressure. There was a significant difference in processing fees between the north and the south. In the north, it was maintained at 300 - 400 yuan/metal ton, and some manufacturers with sufficient inventory quoted 500 - 600 yuan/ton; in the south, the competition was fierce, and some manufacturers purchased low - silver ore at zero processing fees to ensure production. Despite the recent sharp rise in silver prices, the market remained cautious about adjusting the pricing coefficient and it was expected to remain stable in the short term [1] - **Primary Lead**: In the week of October 24, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.57%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week. Regional performance was differentiated: production in Henan and Yunnan was stable; a maintenance enterprise in Hunan only resumed half - production and had no plan to reach full production; production in North China increased slightly and was expected to return to normal next month. In addition, a factory in East China planned to conduct maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the electrolytic lead production line would start in November [1] - **Recycled Lead**: In the week of October 24, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces decreased by 0.51 percentage points to 36.71%. Recycled lead enterprises generally lowered the purchase price of raw materials this week, and the weakening cost support led to a decrease in production willingness. Although some manufacturers replenished raw materials due to the decline in the price of waste batteries, the increase in production was mainly concentrated on long - term order delivery. The resumption of production of a large enterprise in Inner Mongolia drove the regional operating rate to rise, while other regions maintained stable operation. An Anhui smelter planned to start maintenance on the weekend, which was expected to significantly reduce the local operating level next week. Overall, the recycled lead industry showed a differentiated trend of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south" [2] - **Consumption**: In the week of October 24, the operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces increased by 7.10 percentage points to 42.21%. Regionally, the operating rate in Anhui increased slightly due to the production increase of an individual smelter; Jiangsu and Henan remained stable; the operating rate in Inner Mongolia soared by 56 percentage points driven by the resumption of production of a large factory. The high - level operation of lead prices improved smelting profits, and enterprises' production willingness increased. It was expected that the operating rate would still have room for further increase next week [2] - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 23, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions decreased to 3.19 tons, a change of - 2.05 tons from the previous week. The LME inventory changed by - 4375 tons to 235375 tons compared with the previous week [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current state of the lead market, including spot and futures prices, inventory levels, and strategic recommendations for trading [1] Group 2 - On August 5, 2025, LME lead spot premium was reported at -47.86 USD/ton, while SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased to 16,600 CNY/ton, a drop of 100 CNY/ton compared to the previous change [1] - The Shanghai lead futures market saw the main contract open at 16,750 CNY/ton and close at 16,775 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 25 CNY/ton [1] - Total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week, while LME lead inventory stood at 272,975 tons, down by 1,100 tons [1] Group 3 - The article suggests a cautious bullish strategy, recommending to attempt buying on dips within the range of 16,000 - 16,300 CNY/ton for hedging purposes, while advising to pause on arbitrage strategies [1] - Risks mentioned include a significant increase in domestic supply, lower-than-expected consumption, and tightening overseas liquidity [1]