注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所铅库存对比 以下为2026年1月以来LME和上期所铅库存数据：（单位：吨） 伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铅库存延续下行趋势，1月19日库存降至逾两个月新低 203,500吨，昨日库存明显累积，最新库存水平为225,575吨。 上海期货交易所公布数据显示，1月16日当周，沪铅库存继续累积，周度库存增加23.02%至37,044吨， 增至逾一个月新高。 ...

Group 1 - LME lead inventory has decreased to 218,925 tons, marking a two-month low [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 7.52% increase in lead inventory to 30,111 tons, which is at a relative low for over a year [1] - Generally, declining inventories in both domestic and international exchanges support lead prices, while increasing inventories may exert downward pressure [3] Group 2 - LME lead inventory data shows a consistent decline from 241,925 tons on December 31, 2025, to 218,925 tons on January 13, 2026 [5] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory has fluctuated, with a notable increase from 28,004 tons on December 31, 2025, to 30,111 tons on January 9, 2026 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Suspended [4] Core View - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while secondary lead production is gradually resuming. The demand for lead batteries is constrained by high lead prices, and production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although social inventories are at historical lows, they are expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive. Overall, the upside of lead prices is limited by weak consumption, while the downside is supported by costs. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$30.22/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of used electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of used white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of used black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On November 6, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,430 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 44,172 lots, a decrease of 2,244 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 62,498 lots, a decrease of 3,201 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,555 yuan/ton and a low of 17,350 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,420 yuan/ton and closed at 17,405 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures weakened and fluctuated during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in making transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for transactions. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time purchases, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally sluggish spot market [2]. Inventory - On November 6, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 205,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. - Arbitrage: Suspend for now [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while the secondary lead production is slowly resuming. The demand for lead-acid batteries from downstream is constrained by high lead prices, and the production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although the social inventory is at a historical low, it is expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive at the port. Overall, the lead price is suppressed by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The report suggests paying attention to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery, with the expected lead price volatility range approximately between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.32/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1]. Futures Market - On November 4, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,415 yuan/ton and closed at the same price, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 32,675 lots, a decrease of 2,303 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 66,092 lots, a decrease of 1,997 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,490 yuan/ton and a low of 17,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,435 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decrease from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, the quotes of holders were at a discount of 120 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory sales, and later the discount widened to 170 yuan/ton for transactions. In Hunan, smelters with low inventories held firm on prices, with quotes at a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales. Some manufacturers mainly fulfilled long-term contracts and suspended spot sales. In Yunnan, holders sold at a discount of 200 - 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for a small amount of transactions. With the lead price oscillating strongly, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream battery enterprises improved slightly, and market transactions were fair [2]. Inventory - On November 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of November 5, the LME lead inventory was 212,525 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. The report suggests that due to the current situation of raw material supply and demand and inventory trends, the lead price is expected to remain volatile, and investors should pay attention to inventory changes and consumption recovery [3]. - Arbitrage: Suspended [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current state of the lead market, including spot and futures prices, inventory levels, and strategic recommendations for trading [1] Group 2 - On August 5, 2025, LME lead spot premium was reported at -47.86 USD/ton, while SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased to 16,600 CNY/ton, a drop of 100 CNY/ton compared to the previous change [1] - The Shanghai lead futures market saw the main contract open at 16,750 CNY/ton and close at 16,775 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 25 CNY/ton [1] - Total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week, while LME lead inventory stood at 272,975 tons, down by 1,100 tons [1] Group 3 - The article suggests a cautious bullish strategy, recommending to attempt buying on dips within the range of 16,000 - 16,300 CNY/ton for hedging purposes, while advising to pause on arbitrage strategies [1] - Risks mentioned include a significant increase in domestic supply, lower-than-expected consumption, and tightening overseas liquidity [1]