11月18日（周二），伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜延续跌势，美联储官员对12月降息仍存分歧，市场关注 延后公布的9月非农就业数据。 截至北京时间16:44，LME三个月期铜下跌0.50%，报每吨10,725美元。 沪铜主力12月合约日间收盘下跌790元或0.88%，至每吨85,650元。 美元受益于美联储下月降息预期的减弱。美元走强使得以美元交易的大宗商品对使用其他货币的投资者 来说更加昂贵。 因美国政府关门而推迟的9月份官方就业数据将于周四公布。 进入11月，电池原料硫酸镍也显示出疲软的迹象。 周一公布的交易所数据显示，LME镍库存升至252,090吨。 LME三个月期铝下跌0.68%，至每吨2,794.50美元；期锌下跌0.23%，至每吨3,013.50美元；期铅下跌 0.05%，至每吨2,036.50美元；期锡下跌0.17%，至每吨36,825美元。 沪铝主力1月合约下跌1.22%，至每吨21,465元；沪铅合约下跌1.12%，至每吨17,230元；沪锌下跌 0.58%，至每吨22,310元；沪镍下跌1.67%，报每吨114,840元；沪锡下挫0.36%，至每吨288,890元。 （文华综合） 苏克墩金 ...

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventory levels for various metals, highlighting both increases and decreases in stock levels across different locations. Group 1: Copper Inventory - The total LME copper inventory stands at 136,250 tons, reflecting a decrease of 25 tons or 0.02% from the previous day [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for copper increased by 1.20%, with a total of 12,6050 tons registered [2] - The cancellation rate for copper warehouse receipts is 7.49%, down from 8.60% [2] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory - LME aluminum inventory is reported at 545,225 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] - The registered warehouse receipts for aluminum decreased by 5.31%, totaling 509,550 tons [2] - The cancellation rate for aluminum warehouse receipts is 6.54%, slightly down from 6.88% [2] Group 3: Zinc Inventory - Zinc inventory at LME is recorded at 35,300 tons, showing an increase of 400 tons or 1.15% [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for zinc increased by 2.06%, totaling 31,000 tons [2] - The cancellation rate for zinc warehouse receipts is 12.18%, down from 12.97% [2] Group 4: Tin Inventory - LME tin inventory is at 3,015 tons, with a decrease of 20 tons or 0.66% [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for tin are at 2,875 tons, with a cancellation rate of 4.64% [2] Group 5: Nickel Inventory - Nickel inventory is reported at 253,308 tons, reflecting a decrease of 96 tons or 0.04% [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for nickel are at 238,338 tons, with a cancellation rate of 5.91% [2] Group 6: General Observations - The overall trends indicate fluctuations in inventory levels across various metals, with some experiencing increases while others show declines [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in various commodities, including precious metals, energy, and agricultural products, along with the impact of external factors such as Federal Reserve policies and international oil procurement strategies [3][4][5]. Group 2 - As of November 10, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers have a total inventory of 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons or 0.47% from the previous week. The inventory includes 0.7977 million tons of light soda ash, which decreased by 0.0169 million tons, and 0.9085 million tons of heavy soda ash, which increased by 0.0089 million tons [2]. - Federal Reserve's Williams indicated that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases, assessing when reserve levels will transition from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" [3]. - Indian state-owned oil companies have purchased 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market, seeking alternatives to Russian oil supplies, with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation buying 2 million barrels of WTI and 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, expected to arrive in January [3]. Group 3 - Precious metals saw price increases, with CMX gold rising from 4006.100 to 4122.640, a change of 2.91%, and CMX silver increasing from 48.295 to 50.431, a rise of 4.42% [4]. - In the energy sector, WTI crude oil prices slightly increased from 59.869 to 59.880, while Brent crude rose from 63.766 to 63.980, reflecting changes of 0.02% and 0.34% respectively [4]. - Agricultural products also experienced price changes, with soybeans rising from 1117.350 to 1127.950 (0.95%), and wheat increasing from 561.400 to 569.625 (1.47%) [4].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 7, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 39th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 41.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 58th and 60th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the semiconductor industry is notably high, with a PE of 99.7x, placing it at the 76th historical percentile [7] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemicals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2][3] Sector Performance Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain saw a price decline, with polysilicon futures down 6.2% and silicon wafer prices down 3.9% [3] - Battery material prices showed mixed trends, with cobalt down 3.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up 8.1% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.7%, while iron ore prices decreased by 3.4% [3] - Cement prices increased slightly by 0.1%, but demand remains weak [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 4.6%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 2.4% [3] - The price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.15% [3] Technology Sector - The semiconductor sales in China grew by 15.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [3] Commodity Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.1% to $63.7 per barrel, while coal prices increased due to stricter safety inspections and winter storage demand [3]

Group 1 - The article provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) warehouse inventories for various metals, highlighting fluctuations in stock levels and the registration and cancellation of warehouse receipts [1][3][5][7][9][11][13] - Copper inventory increased by 75 tons to 133,975 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 10650 tons, representing a cancellation ratio of 7.95% [1][3] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 550,450 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 43,500 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 7.90% [1][5] - Zinc inventory rose by 175 tons to 34,000 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 4,300 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 12.65% [1][9] - Nickel inventory increased by 378 tons to 253,128 tons, with a registration warehouse receipt of 6,540 tons, showing a cancellation ratio of 2.58% [1][13] Group 2 - The article details specific warehouse inventory changes across various locations, including Rotterdam, Singapore, and Hamburg, indicating the dynamics of metal stock levels [3][5][9][11][13] - In Rotterdam, copper inventory decreased by 125 tons to 13,925 tons, while aluminum remained stable at 3,575 tons [3][5] - Singapore's zinc inventory decreased by 25 tons to 30,175 tons, while nickel inventory increased by 402 tons to 71,460 tons [9][13] - The cancellation ratios for various metals indicate the proportion of warehouse receipts that have been canceled, reflecting market conditions and demand [1][3][5][9][11][13]

Core Insights - The report provides an overview of the inventory changes for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel, highlighting the fluctuations in registered and canceled warehouse receipts. Inventory Changes Summary Copper - Current inventory stands at 139,350 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous day - Registered warehouse receipts are at 131,075 tons, with 8,275 tons canceled, representing a cancellation rate of 5.94% [1][3] Aluminum - Current inventory is 506,000 tons, down by 2,825 tons from the previous day - Registered warehouse receipts total 405,700 tons, with 100,300 tons canceled, leading to a cancellation rate of 19.82% [1][5] Zinc - Current inventory is 37,475 tons, a decrease of 475 tons - Registered warehouse receipts are at 22,900 tons, with 14,575 tons canceled, resulting in a cancellation rate of 38.89% [1][9] Tin - Current inventory is 2,385 tons, down by 25 tons - Registered warehouse receipts total 2,170 tons, with 215 tons canceled, leading to a cancellation rate of 9.01% [1][11] Nickel - Current inventory is 242,094 tons, an increase of 4,716 tons - Registered warehouse receipts are at 235,896 tons, with 6,198 tons canceled, resulting in a cancellation rate of 2.56% [1][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the price change statistics of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays in the past ten and five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, etc., to show their historical performance during the holidays [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Ten - year Average and Median Statistics - The ten - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are as follows: NYMEX crude oil 3.18%, NYMEX natural gas 0.97%, COMEX gold 0.08%, etc. The ten - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 3.33%, NYMEX natural gas - 1.57%, COMEX gold 0.30%, etc [1][4]. b. Five - year Average and Median Statistics - The five - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are: NYMEX crude oil 5.75%, NYMEX natural gas 0.73%, COMEX gold 0.14%, etc. The five - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 4.97%, NYMEX natural gas - 3.19%, COMEX gold 0.21%, etc [2][4]. c. Annual Price Changes from 2015 - 2024 - The report details the price changes of each commodity and index during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024. For example, NYMEX crude oil had a 6.15% change in 2015, 3.12% in 2016, and - 4.63% in 2017 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,150 tons, reflecting a change of -0.29% [1] - Aluminum inventory remained stable at 479,525 tons with no change [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 tons to 72,200 tons, showing a decline of -4.81% [1] - Nickel inventory decreased by 1,086 tons to 209,328 tons, a change of -0.52% [1] - Aluminum alloy inventory remained unchanged at 1,500 tons [1] - Tin inventory decreased by 25 tons to 1,630 tons, reflecting a change of -1.51% [1] Registered and Cancelled Warrants - Registered copper warrants decreased by 0.23% to 143,900 tons, while cancelled warrants decreased by 1.10% to 11,250 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 7.25% [2] - Registered aluminum warrants decreased to 465,475 tons, with cancelled warrants at 14,050 tons, maintaining a cancellation ratio of 2.93% [2] - Zinc registered warrants increased by 3.96% to 43,600 tons, while cancelled warrants decreased by 6.08% to 28,600 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 39.61% [2] - Nickel registered warrants decreased to 199,320 tons, with cancelled warrants at 10,008 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 4.78% [2] - Tin registered warrants decreased to 1,510 tons, with cancelled warrants at 120 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 7.36% [2] Location-Specific Inventory - Copper inventory at Changxing decreased by 50 tons to 48,100 tons, with registered warrants at 46,775 tons [4] - Aluminum inventory at Port Klang remained stable at 314,400 tons, with registered warrants at 306,250 tons [5] - Zinc inventory at Singapore decreased by 3,650 tons to 75,750 tons, with registered warrants at 43,525 tons [9] - Tin inventory at Port Klang remained stable at 1,220 tons, with registered warrants at 1,130 tons [11] - Nickel inventory at Kaohsiung decreased by 1,086 tons to 45,288 tons, with registered warrants at 40,122 tons [13]