Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the price change statistics of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays in the past ten and five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, etc., to show their historical performance during the holidays [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Ten - year Average and Median Statistics - The ten - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are as follows: NYMEX crude oil 3.18%, NYMEX natural gas 0.97%, COMEX gold 0.08%, etc. The ten - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 3.33%, NYMEX natural gas - 1.57%, COMEX gold 0.30%, etc [1][4]. b. Five - year Average and Median Statistics - The five - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are: NYMEX crude oil 5.75%, NYMEX natural gas 0.73%, COMEX gold 0.14%, etc. The five - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 4.97%, NYMEX natural gas - 3.19%, COMEX gold 0.21%, etc [2][4]. c. Annual Price Changes from 2015 - 2024 - The report details the price changes of each commodity and index during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024. For example, NYMEX crude oil had a 6.15% change in 2015, 3.12% in 2016, and - 4.63% in 2017 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,150 tons, reflecting a change of -0.29% [1] - Aluminum inventory remained stable at 479,525 tons with no change [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 tons to 72,200 tons, showing a decline of -4.81% [1] - Nickel inventory decreased by 1,086 tons to 209,328 tons, a change of -0.52% [1] - Aluminum alloy inventory remained unchanged at 1,500 tons [1] - Tin inventory decreased by 25 tons to 1,630 tons, reflecting a change of -1.51% [1] Registered and Cancelled Warrants - Registered copper warrants decreased by 0.23% to 143,900 tons, while cancelled warrants decreased by 1.10% to 11,250 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 7.25% [2] - Registered aluminum warrants decreased to 465,475 tons, with cancelled warrants at 14,050 tons, maintaining a cancellation ratio of 2.93% [2] - Zinc registered warrants increased by 3.96% to 43,600 tons, while cancelled warrants decreased by 6.08% to 28,600 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 39.61% [2] - Nickel registered warrants decreased to 199,320 tons, with cancelled warrants at 10,008 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 4.78% [2] - Tin registered warrants decreased to 1,510 tons, with cancelled warrants at 120 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 7.36% [2] Location-Specific Inventory - Copper inventory at Changxing decreased by 50 tons to 48,100 tons, with registered warrants at 46,775 tons [4] - Aluminum inventory at Port Klang remained stable at 314,400 tons, with registered warrants at 306,250 tons [5] - Zinc inventory at Singapore decreased by 3,650 tons to 75,750 tons, with registered warrants at 43,525 tons [9] - Tin inventory at Port Klang remained stable at 1,220 tons, with registered warrants at 1,130 tons [11] - Nickel inventory at Kaohsiung decreased by 1,086 tons to 45,288 tons, with registered warrants at 40,122 tons [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current state of the lead market, including spot and futures prices, inventory levels, and strategic recommendations for trading [1] Group 2 - On August 5, 2025, LME lead spot premium was reported at -47.86 USD/ton, while SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased to 16,600 CNY/ton, a drop of 100 CNY/ton compared to the previous change [1] - The Shanghai lead futures market saw the main contract open at 16,750 CNY/ton and close at 16,775 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 25 CNY/ton [1] - Total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week, while LME lead inventory stood at 272,975 tons, down by 1,100 tons [1] Group 3 - The article suggests a cautious bullish strategy, recommending to attempt buying on dips within the range of 16,000 - 16,300 CNY/ton for hedging purposes, while advising to pause on arbitrage strategies [1] - Risks mentioned include a significant increase in domestic supply, lower-than-expected consumption, and tightening overseas liquidity [1]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 20.2 times, positioned at the historical 82nd percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 34.8 times, at the historical 20th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 146.2 times, at the historical 100th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Light Industry Manufacturing, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: The price of polysilicon futures increased by 15.2% to 50,000 yuan, while the price of silicon wafers rose by 10.5% [2] - Battery materials: The prices of cobalt and nickel increased by 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively, while lithium prices saw increases of 7.1% for lithium hexafluorophosphate and 9.0% for lithium carbonate [2] Financial Sector - Insurance: The cumulative year-on-year growth of various insurance premiums was 5.3% for the first half of 2025, with an expected further reduction in the preset interest rate for life insurance products [3] Real Estate Chain - Steel: The spot price of rebar rose by 5.4%, and the futures price increased by 6.6% [3] - Cement: The national cement price index fell by 1.5% due to weak demand [3] Consumer Sector - Pork: The average price of live pigs decreased by 0.8%, while the wholesale price of pork increased by 1.0% [3] - Alcohol: The wholesale price index for liquor remained stable, with a slight decrease in the price of Moutai [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavators: Sales of excavators increased by 13.3% year-on-year in June 2025, with domestic sales up by 6.2% and exports up by 19.3% [3] Technology TMT - Optical Communication Modules: Exports decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with a significant drop in export prices [3] Cyclical Industries - Precious Metals: COMEX gold and silver prices fell by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively [3] - Coal: The price of thermal coal rose by 1.7%, while coking coal prices increased by 9.5% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic being strengthened. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and volatility jumps should be guarded against. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States for most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3%, and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The number of new non - farm jobs in the US in June was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US on July 4 will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's sixth meeting on July 1 proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Commodities oriented to domestic demand and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there will be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. Financial - The sentiment in the stock market has risen, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a moderately upward trend, stock index options remain cautious, and the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures has weakened [7]. Precious Metals - Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust [7]. Shipping - The sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [7]. Black Building Materials - The macro sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and black commodities have declined slightly. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash all show a volatile trend [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals show different volatile trends [7]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and other products show different trends such as volatile decline, decline, and volatility [9]. Agriculture - Agricultural varieties mostly show a volatile trend. Rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and other products all show a volatile trend [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing demand for tin driven by cyclical recovery, advancements in AI, and the smart development of electric vehicles, alongside tightening global tin supply due to long-term production halts in Myanmar's Wa region [1] - On July 7, Chinalco International held a meeting to promote digital transformation and AI implementation, indicating a push for technological upgrades within the company [1] - Zijin Mining announced the completion of the acquisition of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana on the same day, strengthening its gold production capacity [1] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities noted that global macro sentiment is gradually improving, and the Federal Reserve has signaled a dovish stance, leading to a rebound in industrial metal prices [1] - As of July 2, LME prices for various metals were reported: copper at $10,010/ton, aluminum at $2,614.50/ton, lead at $2,063.50/ton, zinc at $2,753/ton, nickel at $15,340/ton, and tin at $33,585/ton [1] - The Nonferrous 60 ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metal sector, providing an efficient tool for industry allocation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market volatility and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. One should be vigilant about volatility jumps, pay attention to non - dollar assets, and maintain a strategic allocation of resource products such as gold. Domestic economic stability is maintained, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The logic of policy - driven growth will be strengthened in the second half of the year [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with a more cautious view on the second - half rate - cut expectation. In May, the US retail sales month - on - month rate dropped significantly from 0.1% to - 0.9%, the industrial output month - on - month rate fell by 0.2%, and the June New York Fed manufacturing index was - 16. The US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. As of now, 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be disbursed in an orderly manner. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, service industry growth accelerated, and the decline in the year - on - year prices of commercial residential buildings in cities of all tiers continued to narrow. The added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - **Asset Views**: The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, and domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and the fiscal policy will implement established measures in the short term. Overseas, the inflation - expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures are experiencing the release of crowded funds, stock index options need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened. All are expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Precious Metals**: With the improvement of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver will continue due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the loading rate in June. The market for container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, coal and coke drive the black - building materials market to strengthen. Most products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate, while soda ash is expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some products like zinc and nickel are expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will maintain high volatility. Most energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like crude oil, asphalt, and others expected to decline slightly, while some like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to rise slightly [9]. - **Agriculture**: After substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, the sentiment is positive for the cotton - price rebound. Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like oils and fats expected to decline slightly [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the non-ferrous materials sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a notable decline in various sub-sectors such as rare earths and gold [2][4] - COMEX gold futures closed at $3363.20 per ounce, down $69.4 per ounce, a decrease of 2%, while COMEX silver futures fell to $35.78 per ounce, down $0.5 per ounce, a decline of 1.38% [3][4] - Industrial metals showed slight price increases, with LME copper settling at $9945 per ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 3% [3][4] Group 2 - The non-ferrous materials sector saw a decline of 3.3%, with rare earths down 6.02% and gold down 5.34%, while aluminum remained stable [2][4] - Prices for various industrial metals, including LME aluminum and zinc, experienced weekly increases of 1.8% and 2%, respectively, while LME nickel saw a decrease of 1.34% [3][4] - The price of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide continued to decline, with lithium hydroxide prices dropping below 60,000 per ton, indicating potential losses for companies without cost advantages [3][4]