Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a rebound trend with a current average price of 17,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 150 CNY increase from the previous day, amidst a backdrop of mixed macroeconomic signals and seasonal demand fluctuations [1] Macroeconomic and Price Trends - Lead prices are showing a high-level retreat and low-level fluctuation, influenced by tightening funds at year-end and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which dampens market sentiment [1] - Domestic policies are stabilizing but lack strong driving forces, with the demand peak nearing its end, leading to weakened macro support for prices [1] - Short-term price expectations are set within a core range of 17,000-17,300 CNY/ton, with a generally strong trend anticipated [1] Supply Side Status - There is a significant divergence in domestic lead supply, characterized by stable primary lead and tightening recycled lead [1] - The recovery of previously shut-down primary lead producers has led to a slight increase in overall supply, but new capacity release remains slow, and low processing fees for lead concentrate limit production growth [1] - The main issue lies in recycled lead production, which is constrained by a decline in winter waste battery collection, raw material shortages, and environmental policies, resulting in low operating rates for enterprises [1] - Domestic social inventory is at a low level, providing price support, while LME inventory remains high, indicating a loose supply-demand situation overseas, creating an "internal low, external high" dynamic [1] Demand Side Status - Downstream demand is characterized by stability in traditional lead-acid battery needs, but new demand sources are weak, particularly in the electric bicycle market due to new national standards [2] - Emerging sectors like energy storage (e.g., lead-carbon batteries) have long-term potential but currently contribute minimally to overall consumption [2] - Export conditions for lead-acid batteries and lead materials are challenging due to overseas trade barriers, exacerbating demand-side pressures [2] - Overall, downstream procurement is primarily driven by rigid demand, lacking large-scale stocking motivation, reflecting a "peak season not booming" characteristic [2] Core Industry Chain Contradictions - The inventory situation is characterized by "tight domestic, loose external" conditions, with domestic social inventory dropping to a near three-year low, creating strong support for spot circulation [2] - Conversely, LME inventory stands at 253,000 tons, continuously suppressing international prices and market sentiment [2] Short-term Price Trend Forecast - The lead market is currently in a high-level narrow fluctuation pattern, with clear price volatility ranges influenced by mixed macro factors [3] - The domestic supply is constrained by tight recycled lead raw materials, while social inventory is at historical lows, providing strong bottom support [3] - However, weak demand growth, particularly in exports, combined with high overseas LME inventory, suppresses upward price potential [3] - The market is expected to reach a weak balance under the support of "strong costs, low inventory" and the pressure of "weak demand, high external inventory," with future direction dependent on changes in domestic inventory trends and macro sentiment [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are inconsistent, and market risk appetite lacks sustainability. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of a slight increase in supply but lower-than-expected demand. High inventory levels put pressure on lead prices, while the relatively stable supply-demand gap at the cost end provides support. There are few new contradictions in the short term, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the integer resistance level above remaining effective [4][9]. 3. Summary by Section Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16,845 | 16,850 | 5 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,003.5 | 1,981 | -22.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.41 | 8.51 | 0.10 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 62,334 | 64,844 | 2,510 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268,375 | 261,100 | -7,275 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 3.59 | 3.94 | 0.35 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | -150 | -155 | -5 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 declined under pressure last week. The price rebounded but was blocked by the integer resistance level and then fell, closing at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. LME lead first rose and then fell, closing at 1,981 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.12% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 15, the price of lead in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets showed a downward trend. The inventory of LME decreased, while the SHFE inventory and social inventory increased. The delivery of the current - month contract led to an increase in inventory [7]. Industry News - As of August 15, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the average import ore processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous period [10]. - Some lead - smelting enterprises in Henan may face air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3, which may restrict vehicle transportation [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratios, inventory levels, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [12][13][15][18][19][21][23][25].