1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is under pressure and continues to be weak due to limited improvement in downstream demand, high domestic inventories, and imports. However, the expanding losses and slow resumption of production in the secondary lead sector provide some support to the lead price. Attention should be paid to the resumption of secondary lead production and the progress after secondary lead is included in the delivery system [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The domestic lead concentrate market is in high demand in winter, and the tight supply situation continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at low levels. In March, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged month - on - month. The weekly domestic lead ore processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Primary Lead**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead production was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 13, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces increased by 4.11 percentage points to 56.97% week - on - week, and the supply continued to increase slightly. The by - product silver price is at a high level, and the smelting profit is considerable, so the production enthusiasm of primary lead enterprises is high [3]. - **Secondary Lead**: In February 2026, the production of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. Affected by losses and environmental protection, the resumption of production is far below expectations. The weekly operating rate of SMM is only 29.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.03%. Although large - scale smelters in Shandong and Jiangxi are expected to increase production this week, the high price of waste batteries and the low price of secondary lead have led to serious losses for secondary lead enterprises, and the situation of active production reduction and postponed resumption of production has increased. Starting from March 17, secondary lead will be officially included in the delivery system as an alternative delivery product, with a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the standard product. The pricing logic of Shanghai lead has changed to a dual - track pricing of primary and secondary lead, reducing the risk of cornering the market and putting pressure on the overall valuation of the market [3]. - **Imports**: The Shanghai - London price ratio has rebounded, and the import of refined lead has been in a state of continuous profit. The overseas lead surplus pressure has flowed into the domestic market [3]. 3.3 Consumption - **Battery Enterprises**: Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 73.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. In March, major lead - acid battery enterprises have basically resumed normal production. The orders of electric bicycle and automobile battery enterprises mainly come from the post - Spring Festival replenishment of dealers, but the actual consumption improvement in the terminal market is limited. Dealers are not enthusiastic about purchasing, resulting in slow sales of new batteries and high inventory digestion pressure. Battery factories generally accumulate finished product inventories to a high level of 25 - 30 days. Battery factories are extremely cautious in purchasing lead ingots, and most enterprises only maintain a raw material inventory of 4 - 5 days, mainly using the "long - term order pick - up" or "on - demand replenishment" procurement model, and the spot transactions are extremely light [4]. 3.4 Spot and Inventory - **Spot**: As of the week of March 13, the domestic lead spot basis had a small premium, with a weekend premium of 95 yuan. The LME lead spot maintained a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 47.55 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 13, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 1,400 tons to 284,500 tons, and the LME inventory fluctuated at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 9,220 tons to 76,000 tons. As of March 12, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 77,700 tons, continuing to rise month - on - month and at an absolute high level in the past four years [4].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a rebound trend with a current average price of 17,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 150 CNY increase from the previous day, amidst a backdrop of mixed macroeconomic signals and seasonal demand fluctuations [1] Macroeconomic and Price Trends - Lead prices are showing a high-level retreat and low-level fluctuation, influenced by tightening funds at year-end and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which dampens market sentiment [1] - Domestic policies are stabilizing but lack strong driving forces, with the demand peak nearing its end, leading to weakened macro support for prices [1] - Short-term price expectations are set within a core range of 17,000-17,300 CNY/ton, with a generally strong trend anticipated [1] Supply Side Status - There is a significant divergence in domestic lead supply, characterized by stable primary lead and tightening recycled lead [1] - The recovery of previously shut-down primary lead producers has led to a slight increase in overall supply, but new capacity release remains slow, and low processing fees for lead concentrate limit production growth [1] - The main issue lies in recycled lead production, which is constrained by a decline in winter waste battery collection, raw material shortages, and environmental policies, resulting in low operating rates for enterprises [1] - Domestic social inventory is at a low level, providing price support, while LME inventory remains high, indicating a loose supply-demand situation overseas, creating an "internal low, external high" dynamic [1] Demand Side Status - Downstream demand is characterized by stability in traditional lead-acid battery needs, but new demand sources are weak, particularly in the electric bicycle market due to new national standards [2] - Emerging sectors like energy storage (e.g., lead-carbon batteries) have long-term potential but currently contribute minimally to overall consumption [2] - Export conditions for lead-acid batteries and lead materials are challenging due to overseas trade barriers, exacerbating demand-side pressures [2] - Overall, downstream procurement is primarily driven by rigid demand, lacking large-scale stocking motivation, reflecting a "peak season not booming" characteristic [2] Core Industry Chain Contradictions - The inventory situation is characterized by "tight domestic, loose external" conditions, with domestic social inventory dropping to a near three-year low, creating strong support for spot circulation [2] - Conversely, LME inventory stands at 253,000 tons, continuously suppressing international prices and market sentiment [2] Short-term Price Trend Forecast - The lead market is currently in a high-level narrow fluctuation pattern, with clear price volatility ranges influenced by mixed macro factors [3] - The domestic supply is constrained by tight recycled lead raw materials, while social inventory is at historical lows, providing strong bottom support [3] - However, weak demand growth, particularly in exports, combined with high overseas LME inventory, suppresses upward price potential [3] - The market is expected to reach a weak balance under the support of "strong costs, low inventory" and the pressure of "weak demand, high external inventory," with future direction dependent on changes in domestic inventory trends and macro sentiment [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are inconsistent, and market risk appetite lacks sustainability. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of a slight increase in supply but lower-than-expected demand. High inventory levels put pressure on lead prices, while the relatively stable supply-demand gap at the cost end provides support. There are few new contradictions in the short term, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the integer resistance level above remaining effective [4][9]. 3. Summary by Section Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16,845 | 16,850 | 5 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,003.5 | 1,981 | -22.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.41 | 8.51 | 0.10 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 62,334 | 64,844 | 2,510 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268,375 | 261,100 | -7,275 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 3.59 | 3.94 | 0.35 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | -150 | -155 | -5 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 declined under pressure last week. The price rebounded but was blocked by the integer resistance level and then fell, closing at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. LME lead first rose and then fell, closing at 1,981 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.12% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 15, the price of lead in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets showed a downward trend. The inventory of LME decreased, while the SHFE inventory and social inventory increased. The delivery of the current - month contract led to an increase in inventory [7]. Industry News - As of August 15, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the average import ore processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous period [10]. - Some lead - smelting enterprises in Henan may face air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3, which may restrict vehicle transportation [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratios, inventory levels, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [12][13][15][18][19][21][23][25].