| 铅锌日评20250822：区间整理 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/22 指标 单位 近期趋势 | 今值 | 变动 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | 16,675.00 | 0.45% | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 16,745.00 | 0.12% | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 | -70.00 | 55.00 | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | -25.00 | -10.00 | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 | -38.38 -63.10 | 1.10 4.80 | | 价差 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 | - | 15.00 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 铅 | -15.00 | - | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 | -20.00 | 10.00 | | 期货活跃合约成交量 手 | 28,843.00 | -25.41% | | 成交持仓 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 | 44,230.00 | -5.44% | | 成交持仓比 / 吨 LME库存 | 0.65 279,600.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows no significant contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Supported by tight raw materials and peak - season expectations, the short - term lead price is expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, considering the macro situation and the increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply during the off - season of demand, with continued inventory accumulation in the domestic market and a continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory providing some support, the short - term zinc price is also expected to move in a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat compared to the previous day, while the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract rose 0.30% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,973.50 per ton, up 0.13%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.92%, and the open interest decreased by 2.80%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.40%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio increased by 0.17% [1]. - **Industry News**: Some small - scale secondary lead smelters in South China stopped production due to losses and stopped purchasing waste lead - acid batteries. They plan to resume production when the raw material inventory reaches around 5,000 tons. On August 18, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $44 per ton, and the open interest decreased by 522 to 159,114 contracts [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead smelters that had maintenance are gradually resuming production, with stable - to - increasing production. In the secondary lead sector, due to high waste battery prices, limited supply, and strong hoarding sentiment among recyclers, some smelters have reduced or stopped production, resulting in relatively low overall production. The demand side shows no significant improvement, with dealers mainly consuming inventory and producers producing based on sales [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.45% from the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.60%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 37.72%, and the open interest increased by 51.62%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory also remained unchanged. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,770 per ton, down 0.25%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.35% [1]. - **Industry News**: Peru's Romina zinc project has reached 50% completion and is expected to be officially put into production in Q2 2026. A zinc smelter in the northwest plans to continue its maintenance from September to October, with the expected impact to be made up in November - December. On August 18, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of $8.65 per ton, and the open interest increased by 3,010 to 193,998 contracts [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The production of zinc is showing an upward trend. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventory, but due to concerns about future production cuts, some terminals have stockpiled goods, leading to a rebound in galvanizing production [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - The zinc market shows an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continued inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support, and short - term zinc prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.30%; the futures主力合约收盘价 of Shanghai lead was 16,915 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the Shanghai lead basis was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 38.73 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.23 dollars/ton; the LME 3 - 15 lead premium was - 67.40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.00 dollars/ton [1] - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 29,986 hands, down 15.82%; the open interest was 51,223 hands, down 5.83%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.59, down 10.61% [1] - LME lead inventory was 262,250 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 59,791 tons, up 1.89% [1] - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,997.50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.47, up 0.18% [1] Industry News - On August 11, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 35.5 dollars/ton, with open interest of 151,551 hands, an increase of 354 hands [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not substantially affecting smelter operations. Primary lead operations are stable with a slight increase [1] - In the secondary lead sector, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall, recyclers' supplies are limited, and stores are reluctant to sell due to bullish expectations. Some smelters have reduced or halted production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Secondary lead operations are generally at a relatively low level, but are gradually recovering as the market's acceptance of high - priced secondary lead improves [1] - On the demand side, due to high temperatures and poor demand last week, the operations of some battery enterprises declined. After dealers stocked up earlier, they are now mainly consuming inventory. The peak - season demand performance is average, and downstream purchases are cautious after the lead price rebounds [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,430 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the futures主力合约收盘价 of Shanghai zinc was 22,630 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the Shanghai zinc basis was - 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the Shanghai zinc premium was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc premium was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Guangdong zinc premium was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 4.76 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.18 dollars/ton; the LME 3 - 15 zinc premium was - 1.48 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.26 dollars/ton [1] - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 79,971 hands, down 8.88%; the open interest was 87,488 hands, down 6.32%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.91, down 2.74% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 79,550 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 15,768 tons, up 1.77% [1] - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,808.00 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.06, up 0.18% [1] Industry News - On August 11, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 3.58 dollars/ton, with open interest of 192,981 hands, a decrease of 977 hands [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are continuously rising. It is expected that zinc concentrate processing fees in August will continue to rise, weakening cost - side support. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and there is an obvious trend of increased production [1] - At the beginning of last week, when zinc prices were low, downstream buyers made purchases at low prices. After the zinc price rebounded, the downstream's inventory - replenishment sentiment weakened [1] Automobile Industry News - In July 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales were 2.293 million and 2.287 million units respectively, down 6% and 9.8% month - on - month, and up 13% and 14.7% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales were 15.838 million and 15.841 million units respectively, up 13.8% and 13.4% year - on - year [1] - In July 2025, commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 units respectively, down 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month, and up 16.3% and 14.1% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, commercial vehicle production and sales were 2.397 million and 2.428 million units respectively, up 6% and 3.9% year - on - year [1] - In July 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million units respectively, up 26.3% and 27.4% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million units respectively, up 39.2% and 38.5% year - on - year [1]