证券研究报告 驰宏锌锗 (600497 CH) 公司 Q2 业绩同环比均实现增长 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 27 日│中国内地 | 基本金属及加工 | 目标价(人民币): | 6.95 | 驰宏锌锗发布半年报，2025 年 H1 实现营收 105.81 亿元（yoy+7.67%）， 归母净利 9.32 亿元（yoy+3.27%），扣非净利 9.19 亿元（yoy+12.11%）。 其中 Q2 实现营收 54.37 亿元（yoy+5.47%，qoq+5.69%），归母净利 4.38 亿元（yoy+5.45%，qoq-11.42%）。公司高分红属性突出，电解铝产能天 花板约束下，铝价维持高位，公司盈利稳中有增，维持公司增持评级。 公司上半年毛利率同比上升，费用率略有抬升 盈利方面，公司 25H1 毛利率 19.77%，同比+2.03pct，其中 25Q2 毛利率 为 19.83%，环比+0.12pct。费用方面，公司上半年合计期间费用率为 6.52%， 同比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, there is no obvious contradiction, tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to be range - bound [1] - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment fluctuates, both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply increase, demand is in the off - season, inventory continues to accumulate, and overseas LME zinc inventory decline provides some support, with short - term zinc prices expected to be range - bound [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 0.95% [1] - The Shanghai lead basis was - 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the premium in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 45,616 lots, up 57.64%; the open interest was 51,370 lots, up 3.94%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.89, up 51.67% [1] - LME lead inventory was 261,675 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipts inventory was 61,784 tons, down 1.20% [1] - The closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) was 1,990 US dollars/ton, up 0.10%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.43, down 1.04% [1] Industry News - The action plan for strengthening and extending the industrial chain of key advantageous industries in Guangxi's manufacturing industry aims to build a "recycling - disassembly - regeneration - utilization" industrial system and promote the recycling of lead batteries [1] - On August 13, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 42.01 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 153,848 lots, an increase of 1,928 lots [1] Fundamental Analysis - Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, processing fees are likely to rise, but it has not affected smelter operations. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase [1] - The price of waste lead batteries is likely to rise, some recyclers hoard goods, and some smelters cut production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion. However, as the inventory of electrolytic lead plants decreases, the acceptance of high - priced recycled lead improves, and the production of recycled lead is gradually recovering [1] - Due to high temperatures and weak demand, the operation rate of some battery enterprises decreased last week. After previous stockpiling by dealers, they are now consuming inventory. The peak - season demand is average, and downstream buyers are cautious when lead prices rise [1] Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,440 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract was 22,480 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [1] - The Shanghai zinc basis was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton; the premium in Shanghai was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 78,030 lots, down 0.40%; the open interest was 80,798 lots, down 6.03%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.97, up 5.99% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 77,450 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts inventory was 17,097 tons, up 5.59% [1] - The closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) was 2,842.50 US dollars/ton, up 1.10%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.91, down 1.62% [1] Industry News - According to 29Metals' Q2 report, its zinc concentrate production in Q2 was 12,300 metric tons, a 28% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The annual production guidance for 2025 is 60,000 - 70,000 metric tons [1] - On August 13, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 1.5 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 194,301 lots, an increase of 1,359 lots [1] Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc ore processing fees are rising. It is expected that the processing fees for zinc concentrates in August will continue to increase, weakening the cost support [1] - At the beginning of last week, when zinc prices were low, downstream buyers purchased more. As zinc prices rebounded, the restocking sentiment weakened [1] - Domestically, the supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. Overseas, the continuous decline in LME zinc inventory provides some support [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - The zinc market shows an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continued inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support, and short - term zinc prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.30%; the futures主力合约收盘价 of Shanghai lead was 16,915 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the Shanghai lead basis was - 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 38.73 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.23 dollars/ton; the LME 3 - 15 lead premium was - 67.40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.00 dollars/ton [1] - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 29,986 hands, down 15.82%; the open interest was 51,223 hands, down 5.83%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.59, down 10.61% [1] - LME lead inventory was 262,250 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 59,791 tons, up 1.89% [1] - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,997.50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.47, up 0.18% [1] Industry News - On August 11, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 35.5 dollars/ton, with open interest of 151,551 hands, an increase of 354 hands [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not substantially affecting smelter operations. Primary lead operations are stable with a slight increase [1] - In the secondary lead sector, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall, recyclers' supplies are limited, and stores are reluctant to sell due to bullish expectations. Some smelters have reduced or halted production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Secondary lead operations are generally at a relatively low level, but are gradually recovering as the market's acceptance of high - priced secondary lead improves [1] - On the demand side, due to high temperatures and poor demand last week, the operations of some battery enterprises declined. After dealers stocked up earlier, they are now mainly consuming inventory. The peak - season demand performance is average, and downstream purchases are cautious after the lead price rebounds [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,430 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the futures主力合约收盘价 of Shanghai zinc was 22,630 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the Shanghai zinc basis was - 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the Shanghai zinc premium was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc premium was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Guangdong zinc premium was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 4.76 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.18 dollars/ton; the LME 3 - 15 zinc premium was - 1.48 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.26 dollars/ton [1] - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 79,971 hands, down 8.88%; the open interest was 87,488 hands, down 6.32%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.91, down 2.74% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 79,550 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 15,768 tons, up 1.77% [1] - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,808.00 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.06, up 0.18% [1] Industry News - On August 11, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 3.58 dollars/ton, with open interest of 192,981 hands, a decrease of 977 hands [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are continuously rising. It is expected that zinc concentrate processing fees in August will continue to rise, weakening cost - side support. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and there is an obvious trend of increased production [1] - At the beginning of last week, when zinc prices were low, downstream buyers made purchases at low prices. After the zinc price rebounded, the downstream's inventory - replenishment sentiment weakened [1] Automobile Industry News - In July 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales were 2.293 million and 2.287 million units respectively, down 6% and 9.8% month - on - month, and up 13% and 14.7% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales were 15.838 million and 15.841 million units respectively, up 13.8% and 13.4% year - on - year [1] - In July 2025, commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 units respectively, down 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month, and up 16.3% and 14.1% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, commercial vehicle production and sales were 2.397 million and 2.428 million units respectively, up 6% and 3.9% year - on - year [1] - In July 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million units respectively, up 26.3% and 27.4% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million units respectively, up 39.2% and 38.5% year - on - year [1]

Group 1 - The metal lead concept declined by 2.90%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with major declines seen in companies such as Zhuhai Group, ST Shengtun, and Hunan Silver [1] - The leading sectors in terms of daily performance included liquid-cooled servers (+1.86%), while the special steel concept saw a decline of 3.20% [1] - The net outflow of main funds from the metal lead concept reached 1.712 billion yuan, with 28 stocks experiencing net outflows, and five stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Zijin Mining led the net outflow of main funds with 254 million yuan, followed by Huayu Mining, ST Shengtun, and Xingye Silver Tin with net outflows of 184 million yuan, 153 million yuan, and 119 million yuan respectively [1] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Yuguang Gold Lead, Shengda Resources, and Sierte, with net inflows of 26.74 million yuan, 2.95 million yuan, and 897,200 yuan respectively [1] - The top stocks experiencing significant net outflows included Zijin Mining (-3.38%), Huayu Mining (-4.00%), and ST Shengtun (-4.08%) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lead inventories are increasing, putting pressure on prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.06%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,020 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 37,318 lots, a decrease of 10,660 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,047 lots, a decrease of 1,220 lots [1] - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 66,741 lots, an increase of 2,207 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 142,798 lots, a decrease of 153 lots [1] - The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -31.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.49 dollars/ton [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -755.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.29 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -689.99 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/ton [1] - The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,934 tons, an increase of 1,002 tons; the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons [1] - The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 71,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 News - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed. Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2] - Trump said the US will impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, referring to India as a major buyer of Russian energy. Trump announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, and South Korea will provide the US with $350 billion in investment, which will be owned and controlled by the US. Trump signed an executive order to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil [2] - In 2024, CMOC added 1.5145 million tons of lead, zinc, and copper metal resources and 24 tons of gold [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc futures continue to rebound. - Lead: Supported by the cost of recycled lead and with signs of demand recovery, the lead price is clearly supported. Attention should be paid to the resistance level at 17,500 [61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Multi - Empty Focus 3.1.1. Zinc - Bullish factors: The US index is expected to decline, and there are disturbances in the supply side overseas. - Bearish factors: Zinc ingot inventory has a slight increase [7]. 3.1.2. Lead - Bullish factors: There is a regional shortage in the supply of recycled lead, the price of waste batteries has increased, and social inventory has decreased. - Bearish factors: Consumption has not significantly recovered [10]. 3.2. Data Analysis 3.2.1. Zinc - **Import of zinc ore concentrates**: In May 2025, China's import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. The supply from major countries decreased, but other countries increased their supply, resulting in the May import volume being basically the same as that of the previous month. Recently, the import zinc ore processing fee has been rebounding, and there is an expectation of a marginal loosening of the ore supply [12]. - **Processing fees**: In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton month - on - month to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton month - on - month to 55 dollars/dry ton. The short - term weekly processing fees were relatively stable. The CZSPT released the guidance price range for the US dollar processing fee for imported zinc concentrates before the end of the third quarter of 2025: 80 dollars (average) - 100 dollars (average)/dry ton [15]. - **Zinc concentrate prices**: The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi increased by 210 yuan/ton to 17,060 yuan/ton compared with last week; the price of 50% zinc concentrate in Chenzhou increased by 240 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [20]. - **Zinc production**: In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In June, there were both new capacity releases and production resumptions, as well as some production cuts due to maintenance [23]. - **Refined zinc import**: In May 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 26,716.511 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. Kazakhstan was the largest supplier, and Australia was the second - largest supplier [26]. - **Automobile market**: In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35% and 36.9% respectively. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.7% of the total vehicle sales, reaching a new high. In May, China's total vehicle exports were 551,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5% [30]. - **Zinc inventory**: The LME zinc inventory has been continuously declining since reaching a three - month high on April 17, and the latest inventory level is 119,850 tons, a two - month low. The SHFE zinc inventory increased in the week of June 20, with a weekly decrease of 1.79% [33]. 3.2.2. Lead - **Lead futures and cash**: This week, the lead futures and cash prices continued to rise, the basis was 135 yuan/ton, and the premium range expanded. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the refined - scrap price difference was strengthening [37]. - **Lead concentrate prices and processing fees**: The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming fluctuated by 50 yuan/ton; the weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Baoji decreased by 42 yuan/ton. As of June 20, the lead concentrate processing fee in Jiyuan was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Chenzhou was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Gejiu was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [41]. - **Lead production**: In May 2025, China's lead production was 649,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In June, more electrolytic lead smelting enterprises were under maintenance, while some recycled lead smelters were expected to resume production and some planned to increase production [45]. - **Lead industry operating rates**: The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased to 70.79% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 32.1% month - on - month. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased by 11.8 percentage points to 72.19% month - on - month [48][50][54]. - **Lead inventory**: As of June 26, the LME lead inventory decreased, with the latest level at 273,250 tons. The SHFE lead inventory increased by 1.24% to 51,929 tons in the week of June 20. As of June 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 56,000 tons, the same as on June 19 and an increase of more than 300 tons compared with June 23 [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to unresolved raw material shortages, some secondary lead smelters are reducing production, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost support and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1] - For zinc, the zinc market has strong supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. Short - term zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the medium - to - long term, TC has room to rise, and the center of zinc prices may shift down. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended, and macro - sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots on May 26, 2025, was 16,650 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract was 16,860 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [1] - The Shanghai lead basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 51,462 lots, up 19.73%; the open interest was 47,379 lots, up 4.59% [1] - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,994 US dollars/ton, up 1.53%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.46, down 0.47% [1] Supply and Demand - From May 17 to May 23, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.75%, up 0.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 36.7%, down 0.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 72.66%, flat [1] - On May 22, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 22.37 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 139,160 lots, an increase of 759 lots [1] - Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production has decreased significantly due to rising raw material costs and limited supply. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is weak [1] Zinc Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots on May 26, 2025, was 22,640 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day; the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract was 22,215 yuan/ton, down 1.07% [1] - The Shanghai zinc basis was 425 yuan/ton, a change of 300 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 127,189 lots, up 54.61%; the open interest was 114,069 lots, up 91.20% [1] - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,712.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.30%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.19, down 1.36% [1] Supply and Demand - From May 17 to May 23, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 62.03%, up 1.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 56.41%, down 2.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 62.03%, down 0.38 percentage points [1] - As of May 23, the zinc concentrate port inventory was 35.8 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [1] - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and the zinc ore processing fee is rising. The supply is increasing, while demand from die - cast zinc alloy and zinc oxide industries is weak [1]