铜产业风险管理日报 2025/09/17 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80880 | 73000-80000 | 8.40% | 6.3% | 利空因素： source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2511C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [3] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core View - Copper prices rose in the overnight session on Wednesday due to the lower - than - expected US PPI data. Investors expect inflation data to further decline, which removes obstacles to the Fed's interest rate cuts and increases the probability of rate cuts, thus pushing up copper prices. The US inflation data on Thursday night met expectations, validating the PPI data. In the short term, with a tight supply side, copper prices face significant resistance at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with prices expected to stabilize above 80,000 yuan per ton [4] Content Summary by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,130 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 7.44%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.5% [3] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when volatility is relatively stable [3] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, the strategy is to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 7,8000 yuan per ton [3] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; increased rate - cut expectations led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; and the lower support level has been raised [5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are unstable; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; and the US copper tariff policy adjustment has led to an extremely high COMEX inventory [6] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 80,130 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 80,130 | 340 | 0.43% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 80,100 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 10,057 | 45 | 0.45% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.11 | - 0.02 | - 0.25% | [7] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Market | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 80,175 | 430 | 0.54% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | Yuan/ton | 80,140 | 415 | 0.52% | | Guangdong Nanchu | Yuan/ton | 80,120 | 380 | 0.48% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 80,270 | 390 | 0.49% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 85 | 25 | 41.67% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium | Yuan/ton | 40 | 15 | 60% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | Yuan/ton | 60 | 15 | 33.33% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 100 | 5 | 5.26% | [13] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,628.51 | - 60 | - 3.55% | | Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,498.2 | - 0.6 | - 0.04% | | Price advantage (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 130.31 | - 59.4 | - 31.31% | | Current refined - scrap spread (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,320 | - 60 | - 0.94% | | Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,239.51 | - 4.16 | - 0.07% | | Price advantage (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 80.49 | - 55.84 | - 40.96% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,028 | 902 | 4.72% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 5,419 | 1,001 | 22.66% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | Tons | 1,530 | 0 | 0% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total tax - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,028 | 902 | 4.72% | [21] London Metal Exchange (LME) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | Tons | 154,175 | - 875 | - 0.56% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | Tons | 22,675 | 0 | 0% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | Tons | 16,500 | - 115,875 | - 87.54% | | LME copper inventory in North America | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | Tons | 133,325 | 0 | 0% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,850 | - 875 | - 4.03% | [23] COMEX | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | Tons | 309,834 | 7,090 | 2.34% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | Tons | 147,589 | - 3,239 | 1.09% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | Tons | 162,245 | - 458 | - 0.28% | [24] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | Yuan/ton | - 104.48 | - 109.58 | - 2148.63% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 40.5 | 0 | 0% | [25]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The copper price's rise and fall on Wednesday were closely related to the US economy. The unusual simultaneous rise of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil at night, along with a significant decline in US stocks, and a sharp increase in long - term bond yields in Europe and the US, led to an over - rise. The copper price fell after the opening on Wednesday. Considering the relatively tight supply and the US economic pressure stimulating the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the copper price may remain strong in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.61%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.1% [3]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Liduo Factors**: The US reaching a tariff - policy agreement with other countries, an increase in interest - rate cut expectations leading to a decline in the US dollar index and boosting non - ferrous metal valuations, and a rise in the lower support level [5][7]. - **Lidkong Factors**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by the US copper tariff - policy adjustment [6][7]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,770 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,770 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan (- 0.42%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,680 yuan/ton, with no change; the LME copper 3M is 9,891.5 US dollars/ton, down 82.5 US dollars (- 0.83%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.14, down 0.02 (- 0.25%) [6][8]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaomao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,190 yuan/ton, 80,125 yuan/ton, 80,000 yuan/ton, and 80,230 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline. The spot premiums also decreased [9]. Copper Refined - Scrap Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,585.74 yuan/ton, down 177.24 yuan (- 10.05%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,499.9 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan (- 0.26%); the price advantage (tax - included) is 85.84 yuan/ton, down 173.34 yuan (- 66.88%). Similar declines are seen in the non - tax - included data [13]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 19,829 tons, up 358 tons (1.84%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 5,322 tons, down 100 tons (- 1.84%) [15]. - **Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 158,375 tons, down 200 tons (- 0.13%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 302,744 tons, up 28,977 tons (10.58%) [17][18]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 47.85 yuan/ton, up 5.33 yuan (- 10.02%); the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 US dollars/ton, with no change [19].