Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The increase in copper inventory restricts price increases [1] - The copper trend strength is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,560, with a daily decline of 0.27%, and the night - session closing price was 101,730, with a night - session increase of 0.17%. The closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 13,100, with a daily decline of 0.64% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 207,636, a decrease of 113,998 from the previous day, and the open interest was 565,589, a decrease of 10,639. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,249, a decrease of 2,920, and the open interest was 325,000, a decrease of 1,683 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 165,939, an increase of 8,811. The LME copper inventory was 189,100, an increase of 4,800, and the注销仓单 ratio was 10.30%, a decrease of 0.27% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME copper premium/discount was - 77.37, a decrease of 6.42 from the previous day. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was 5, a decrease of 30 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: US retail sales in December showed zero growth month - on - month, weaker than market expectations, strengthening market expectations of a Fed rate cut [1] - **Industry**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada has suspended major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec, and investment in the associated copper refinery will be scaled back in the medium term. Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 was 169,500 tons, a 14% decrease from the same period in 2024. Capstone Copper will resume full production at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile. Harmony Gold's newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two years of renovation [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Copper prices will continue to adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to precious metal price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the upward trend of copper prices will remain unchanged [5][52] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US manufacturing index reached a new high since August 2022, while the service index declined slightly. US ADP employment was lower than expected, and the release of the non - farm employment report was postponed. The large - scale selling of the world's largest silver leveraged ETF added selling pressure to the precious metal market, and market risk appetite was poor [5][12] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to improve the copper reserve system, expand the national strategic copper reserve scale, and explore a commercial reserve mechanism. It also considers including copper concentrates in the reserve scope [5] - Globally, copper mine supply is facing structural challenges, and the supply of copper concentrates is expected to have a significant gap in 2026. In China, refined copper production remained high in December 2025, and there were plans for smelter overhauls in January 2026 [5][20][25] - The import volume of scrap copper in China reached a new monthly high in December 2025. The production enthusiasm of refined copper rod enterprises declined significantly in December 2025, and the increase in production in January 2026 was limited [25][29][33] - The refined - scrap copper price difference was at a high level, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption. The inventory of global electrolytic copper increased significantly, and the discount range of domestic and foreign copper spot prices decreased [36][44][49] - The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, but there may be policies to improve and stabilize expectations. China's automobile production and sales reached a new high in 2025, and the new - energy vehicle market continued to grow. The new photovoltaic installation scale is expected to decline in 2026 and then return to an upward trend [39][41] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged [8] - **Bearish factors**: Refined copper production remains at a high level, refined copper inventory continues to accumulate, precious metals continue to decline, and market risk appetite is poor [8] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper mine supply**: In 2025, global copper mine supply was severely disrupted, and the supply of copper concentrates had a large gap. The supply is expected to decline in 2026 and turn to a more relaxed state in 2027 [20] - **Copper concentrate TC**: The spot TC/RC of copper concentrates is in a deep negative range, and the profit of the smelting end is under pressure. Chile has postponed the goal of annual copper production exceeding 6 million tons and lowered production expectations [23] - **Refined copper production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. In January 2026, there were plans for smelter overhauls and new plant startups [25] - **Scrap copper import**: In December 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.90%, reaching a new monthly high in 2025 [29] - **Refined copper rod production**: In December 2025, the production of refined copper rods in China decreased significantly, and the production increase in January 2026 was limited [33] - **Refined - scrap copper price difference**: As of February 5, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 3,380 yuan/ton, remaining at a high level, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption [36] - **Electrolytic copper inventory**: The inventory of LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper increased, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper also increased [45] - **Copper spot premium**: On February 5, the premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper spot was around - 105 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around 77.58 US dollars/ton, with the discount range narrowing [49] 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices will continue to adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to precious metal price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the upward trend of copper prices will remain unchanged [52]