Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The market's confidence in the Fed has strengthened after the nomination of Wash as Fed Chairman, leading to a change in expectations for interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US dollar has risen, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The copper price oscillated downward last week but stopped falling and stabilized after the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system. In the short term, there is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with the price mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. In the long term, the copper price is optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: Wash's nomination as Fed Chairman has boosted the confidence in the US dollar due to the expectation of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022. The January ADP new employment was 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000, indicating weak labor market momentum. Non - farm employment data will be released this week, and Wash's interest rate cut path needs to be monitored [3]. - **Supply aspect**: In January, the copper production was 15,700 tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year due to high copper prices and low market liquidity. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [3]. - **Demand aspect**: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. After the pre - holiday copper price correction, downstream industries replenished raw materials. As the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, downstream industries entered the holiday mode, and procurement decreased [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend This week, Shanghai copper oscillated weakly, with a weekly high of 105,810 yuan/ton, a low of 97,920 yuan/ton, a weekly amplitude of 7.61%, and a range change of - 3.45% [5]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market As of February 9, the average spot premium in East China was - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 115 yuan/ton. As the copper price corrected, downstream procurement sentiment increased, and the spot discount narrowed [11]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure As of February 6, the LME copper price fell 4.02% during the week, closing at $12,900/ton, with a spot premium of - $60/ton [16]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a 7% month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year increase. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 30.365 million physical tons, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [20]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply In December 2025, China imported 239,000 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a 14.81% month - on - month and 9.88% year - on - year increase. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year, and the operating rate will continue to decline this week, with little market trading [25]. 3.7 Smelter Fees As of February 6, the domestic spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $51.23/dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to decline. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will promote copper smelting capacity governance. The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026, and the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [30]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply In January, the electrolytic copper output was 15,700 tons more than expected and is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a 21.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% year - on - year decrease [34]. 3.9 Apparent Demand As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month [38]. 3.10 Downstream Consumption - **Copper rod**: According to Mysteel's survey of 57 domestic refined copper rod sample enterprises, the capacity utilization rate in January was 54.44%, a 3.35% month - on - month and 5.93% year - on - year increase. In February, it was 34.62%, a 19.82% month - on - month and 17.76% year - on - year decrease. Some copper tube enterprises will stop production this weekend [42]. - **Power grid**: As of the end of 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a 16.1% year - on - year increase. The solar power installed capacity was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a 35.4% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 640 million kilowatts, a 22.9% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants above 6,000 kilowatts were 3,119 hours, 312 hours less than the previous year [47]. - **Real estate**: In December, the sales area of new commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a 39.87% month - on - month increase and a 16.58% year - on - year decrease. The sales volume was 880.7 billion yuan, a 44.07% month - on - month increase and a 24.24% year - on - year decrease [53]. - **Automobile**: In January 2026, the estimated wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. From January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax was changed from exemption to half - collection. The "trade - in" subsidy for heavy trucks and buses continued, and the subsidy for passenger vehicles changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy [59]. 3.11 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of February 6, the LME copper inventory increased by 8,300 tons to 171,700 tons week - on - week (a 4.74% increase), and was 26.48% lower year - on - year. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 tons, a 1.97% week - on - week increase and 488.28% higher year - on - year. - On February 5, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 120,600 tons, still increasing during the week. As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 160,200 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease, and the cathode copper inventory was 248,900 tons, a 6.83% week - on - week increase [64][69].

江西铜业股份（00358）盘中涨超3%，截至发稿，股价上涨1.59%，现报46.02港元，成交额4.98亿港 元。 2月3日，在中国有色金属工业协会举行2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上，中国有色金属 工业协会副秘书长段绍甫表示，将扎实推进铜冶炼产能治理工作，目前国内已叫停了200多万吨铜冶炼 项目，铜冶炼产能过快增长的势头已得到有效抑制。未来，行业协会将继续配合国家有关部门严格管控 新增矿铜冶炼项目，从源头上改善外采比逐年提升的现状。 开源证券指出，公司为国内领先的铜冶炼生产商，在铜以及相关有色金属领域建立集勘探、采矿、选 矿、冶炼、加工的一体化产业链。目前公司主要资产包括国内规模领先的铜冶炼产能和5座在产铜矿 山，整体生产稳健。同时公司积极实践"资源优先"战略，推动第一量子的战略合作关系，并已在中亚、 南美等地区进行资源布局，合作资源项目（艾娜克铜矿、北秘鲁矿业）有望迎来开花结果。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 江西铜业股份（00358）盘中涨超3%，截至发稿，股价上涨1.59%，现报46.02港元，成交额4.98亿港 元。 2月3日，在中国有色金属工业协会 ...

消息面上，2月3日，在中国有色金属工业协会举行2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上，中 国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫表示，将扎实推进铜冶炼产能治理工作，目前国内已叫停了200多 万吨铜冶炼项目，铜冶炼产能过快增长的势头已得到有效抑制。未来，行业协会将继续配合国家有关部 门严格管控新增矿铜冶炼项目，从源头上改善外采比逐年提升的现状。 开源证券指出，公司为国内领先的铜冶炼生产商，在铜以及相关有色金属领域建立集勘探、采矿、选 矿、冶炼、加工的一体化产业链。目前公司主要资产包括国内规模领先的铜冶炼产能和5座在产铜矿 山，整体生产稳健。同时公司积极实践"资源优先"战略，推动第一量子的战略合作关系，并已在中亚、 南美等地区进行资源布局，合作资源项目(艾娜克铜矿、北秘鲁矿业)有望迎来开花结果。 江西铜业股份(00358)再涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.4%，报48.84港元，成交额3.85亿港元。 智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)再涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.4%，报48.84港元，成交额3.85亿 港元。 ...

消息面上，2月3日，在中国有色金属工业协会举行2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上，中 国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫表示，将扎实推进铜冶炼产能治理工作，目前国内已叫停了200多 万吨铜冶炼项目，铜冶炼产能过快增长的势头已得到有效抑制。未来，行业协会将继续配合国家有关部 门严格管控新增矿铜冶炼项目，从源头上改善外采比逐年提升的现状。 开源证券指出，公司为国内领先的铜冶炼生产商，在铜以及相关有色金属领域建立集勘探、采矿、选 矿、冶炼、加工的一体化产业链。目前公司主要资产包括国内规模领先的铜冶炼产能和5座在产铜矿 山，整体生产稳健。同时公司积极实践"资源优先"战略，推动第一量子的战略合作关系，并已在中亚、 南美等地区进行资源布局，合作资源项目(艾娜克铜矿、北秘鲁矿业)有望迎来开花结果。 智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)再涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.4%，报48.84港元，成交额3.85亿 港元。 ...

盘面异动：今天午后增仓上行，短期内沪铜主力合约可关注10万整数关口附近支撑，以及近期10.5-10.6 万位置附近的突破情况。 风险提示：有色板块近期受宏观情绪及风控措施扰动较大，短期需注意高波动风险。中长期可关注需求 向好预期逻辑对价格的支撑情况。 本内容仅用于学习交流，不构成投资建议。接收本文不代表国泰君安期货与读者建立任何业务关系。本 公司不对信息的准确性、完整性和可靠性提供保证，投资者须自行承担风险。本文观点仅为作者个人分 析，不代表公司立场。未经书面授权，禁止任何形式的复制、修改或引用。如需转载，请注明出处为国 泰君安期货，确保内容完整性，且不得对本点评进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 新浪合作平台国泰君安期货开户 安全快捷有保障 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 陈骏昊投资咨询证号：Z0021546 事件驱动：在2月3日中国有色金属工业协会举行的2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上，中 国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫表示，将扎实推进铜冶炼产能治理工作，目前国内已叫停了200多 万吨铜冶炼项目，铜冶炼产能过快增长的势头已得到有效抑制 ...