Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing intense competition due to tight supply, with copper prices reaching historical highs on December 3, 2023 [2][4][5] - The significant increase in COMEX copper inventory, which has surged over 300% compared to the previous year, indicates a strategic accumulation of copper in the U.S. [4][6] - The global copper supply chain is fragile, influenced by various factors including production challenges from major suppliers like Codelco and geopolitical issues [5][6] Price Movements - On December 3, 2023, LME three-month copper prices hit a record high of $11,448.5 per ton, marking a 2.72% increase [4] - Shanghai copper futures also reached a historical peak, surpassing 90,000 yuan per ton, with a 1.97% rise [4] - Other metals like tin also saw significant price increases, with LME tin rising 4.38% to $40,750 per ton [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Codelco's proposed annual contract premium for refined copper for 2026 has surged to $335-$350 per ton, a staggering increase of over 275% from the previous year [5] - The ongoing tightness in global copper supply is exacerbated by production stagnation in Chile, delays in African projects, and export restrictions in Indonesia [5][6] U.S. Market Behavior - U.S. funds have been aggressively accumulating copper, with COMEX copper inventory exceeding 400,000 tons, representing 62% of the total inventory across major exchanges [6] - The strategic accumulation of copper in the U.S. is seen as a response to potential tariffs and reflects broader concerns about global supply vulnerabilities [6][9] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices may continue to rise, especially if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in December, which could further stimulate demand in emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy [8][9] - The potential for reduced production from smelting companies in response to low processing fees could tighten supply further, driving prices up [9]

在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，金属铜市场的博弈正在日趋激烈。 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价，刷新历史新高， 交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来 最大单日增幅。 沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，亦创历史新高。 由于纽约商品交易所（COMEX）—伦敦金属交易所（LME）之间的价差持续存在，资金囤铜流入美国的迹象 始终不断。 目前，COMEX铜库存已突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占国际三大 交易所铜库存的比例已达62%。 铜价刷新历史高点 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜价格创历史新高。伦铜日内一度涨近3%，截至发稿，涨 2.59%，报11435美元/吨，创下历史新高。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，现涨1.4%，创历史新高。 此外， 伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期锡涨3.45%，报40385.0美元/吨；沪锡期货主力连续合约涨 3.05%，报318770元(人民币)/吨。 价格均创2022年5月以来新高。 现货白银涨0.27%，报58.59美元/盎司；现货黄金涨超0.50%，报4226美元/盎司；WTI ...