Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of copper arbitrage trading as traders bet on the potential reintroduction of high tariffs on copper by the Trump administration in the coming year [1][2] - Major trading firms, including Mercuria Energy Group, Vitol Group, and Trafigura Group, are negotiating annual agreements for copper supply to the U.S. for 2026, with offers exceeding the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price by over $500 per ton [1][2] - The expectation of renewed tariffs has led to a significant increase in the price of copper on the New York Comex, which is now substantially higher than LME prices, indicating a potential continuation of market volatility [1][2] Group 2 - Earlier this year, traders like Mercuria and Trafigura profited significantly by shipping large quantities of copper to the U.S. before the initial tariff announcement, which resulted in record import levels and pushed copper prices to historical highs despite weak demand [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the implementation of tariffs until 2027, with a proposed 15% tariff increasing to 30% by 2028, creating uncertainty that traders are eager to exploit [2] - The willingness of traders to pay high premiums for copper is driven by the potential for higher resale prices in the U.S. market [2]

Core Insights - The copper arbitrage trading, previously impacted by tariffs, is resurging as traders bet on potential high tariffs on copper by the Trump administration next year [1][2] - Major trading firms like Mercuria, Vitol, and Trafigura are negotiating annual supply agreements for copper with Chilean producers for 2026, with offers exceeding the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price by over $500 per ton [1][2] - The expectation of renewed tariffs has led to a significant increase in New York Comex copper prices, which are now substantially higher than LME futures prices [1][2] Group 1 - Earlier this year, traders like Mercuria and Trafigura profited significantly by shipping large quantities of copper to the U.S. before the initial tariff proposal by Trump in February [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the imposition of a 15% tariff until 2027, increasing to 30% by 2028, creating uncertainty that traders are capitalizing on [2] - Traders are willing to pay high premiums for copper as they anticipate being able to resell it at higher prices in the U.S. market [2] Group 2 - In July, the Trump administration's unexpected exemption of raw copper from tariffs led to a dramatic market reaction, with Comex copper futures dropping 22% in a single day, marking the largest decline since at least 1988 [3][4] - The exemption caused a rapid disappearance of the price premium that Comex copper had over LME prices, leading to a shift to a discount [3] - Following the exemption announcement, the number of profitable put options surged, indicating a significant market shift [4]