| 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(元) | 6.105.109.306.43 | 4.830.530.061.58 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润(元) | 827,532,116.55 | 644,109,166.00 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损 | 787,370,021.44 | 652,782,903.97 | | 益的净利润(元) | | | | 扣除联营企业投资收益后归属于上市公 | 803,783,596.72 | 589.127.617.92 | | 司股东的净利润(元) | | | | 经营活动产生的现金流量净额(元) | 245,866,756.69 | 228,207,051.06 | | 基本每股收益(元/股) | 0.87 | 0.67 | | 稀释每股收益(元/股) | 0.87 | 0.67 | | 加权平均净资产收益率 | 10.48% | 8.82% | | 项目 | 本报告期末 | 上年度末 | | 总资产(元) | 14,856,774,169.62 | 14.166.077.883.17 ...

证券研究报告 久立特材 (002318 CH) 公司 25H1 归母净利同比增长 28.48% 2025 年 8 月 26 日│中国内地 特钢 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 26 日│中国内地 | 特钢 | 目标价(人民币): | 27.44 | 李斌 研究员 | SAC No. S0570517050001 | libin@htsc.com | | --- | --- | | SFC No. BPN269 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | 张智杰* | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570124050019 | zhangzhijie@htsc.com | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 27.44 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 25 日) | 22.59 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 22,074 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The control change of Yonghe Intelligent Control (002795) has been terminated due to the acquirer's failure to pay the initial share transfer payment, leading to a significant drop in the company's stock price [1][2]. Group 1: Control Change Termination - Yonghe Intelligent Control's stock price fell over 7% during intraday trading on August 13, ultimately closing down 5.24% at 5.24 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 2.336 billion yuan [1]. - The termination of the control change was announced on August 12, stating that the acquirer, Hangzhou Runfeng, failed to pay the initial transfer payment of approximately 20.0015 million yuan by the agreed deadline [2]. - This marks the third failed attempt by the actual controller, Cao Delin, to change control since he took over in 2019, with previous attempts in 2022 and 2023 also failing [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yonghe Intelligent Control has reported continuous net losses for three consecutive years, with net profits of approximately -26.1867 million yuan in 2022, -155.6 million yuan in 2023, and -297 million yuan in 2024 [3]. - The company’s revenue for the years 2022 to 2024 was approximately 990 million yuan, 948 million yuan, and 823 million yuan, respectively [3]. - The company expects a net loss of between 56 million yuan and 30 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the same period last year, but still not achieving profitability [4]. Group 3: Business Operations - Yonghe Intelligent Control operates primarily in the production and management of household water heating valves and fittings, while also focusing on the emerging industry of precise radiation treatment for tumors [3]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to reduced revenue from the valve and fitting business, decreased product gross margins, and high depreciation and labor costs [4]. - The company aims to establish a stable and high-quality industrial development model, focusing on its core business areas to achieve profitability in the future [4].

Core Viewpoint - The control change of Yonghe Intelligent Control (002795) has been terminated due to the acquirer's failure to pay the initial share transfer payment, leading to a significant drop in the company's stock price [1][3]. Group 1: Control Change Termination - On August 12, Yonghe Intelligent Control announced the termination of the control change due to the acquirer's failure to pay approximately 20.01 million yuan for the initial share transfer [3][4]. - The proposed transfer involved selling 8% of the company's shares at a price of 8.9736 yuan per share, totaling around 320 million yuan [3][4]. - This marks the third failed attempt by the actual controller, Cao De Li, to change control since he took over in 2019 [4]. Group 2: Stock Price Reaction - Following the announcement, Yonghe Intelligent Control's stock opened down 7.59% and closed at 5.24 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 2.336 billion yuan [3][4]. - The stock price decline reflects investor concerns regarding the company's future prospects after the failed control change [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Yonghe Intelligent Control has reported net losses for three consecutive years, with net profits of approximately -26.19 million yuan in 2022, -156 million yuan in 2023, and -297 million yuan in 2024 [6][7]. - The company’s revenue has also declined, with figures of approximately 990 million yuan in 2022, 948 million yuan in 2023, and 823 million yuan in 2024 [7]. - The company expects a net loss of between -56 million yuan and -30 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating ongoing financial challenges [7][8]. Group 4: Business Strategy - Yonghe Intelligent Control aims to establish a dual business model focusing on "water heating valve and fitting business" and "precision radiation treatment for tumors" to achieve sustainable and high-quality development [8].

Core Viewpoint - Yonghe Intelligent Control announced the termination of the control change, which was previously disclosed on August 6, leading to a significant stock price fluctuation [2][4]. Group 1: Control Change Announcement - On August 12, Yonghe Intelligent Control received a notice from its controlling shareholder, Cao Delin, indicating the termination of the share transfer agreement signed on August 5, 2025, with Hangzhou Runfeng Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. [2][6]. - The share transfer involved 35.66 million shares (8% of total shares) at a price of 8.9736 yuan per share, totaling 320 million yuan [6][7]. Group 2: Stock Price Reaction - Following the announcement of the control change on August 6, the stock price of Yonghe Intelligent Control hit the daily limit up on August 5, but dropped sharply by 5.8% on August 6 after opening high [4][7]. - The stock experienced a continuous decline over the next five trading days, with a cumulative drop of 15% [12]. Group 3: Reasons for Termination - The termination was due to Hangzhou Runfeng's failure to pay the first installment of the share transfer payment of 20 million yuan by the agreed deadline [9][10]. - The agreement stipulated that if the payment was not made within the specified time, the transfer agreement would be deemed invalid and automatically terminated [9][10]. Group 4: Company Financial Performance - Yonghe Intelligent Control's main business focuses on the production and operation of household water heating valves and fittings, contributing approximately 85% to revenue, while tumor precision radiation therapy contributes less than 15% [14]. - The company has been experiencing continuous losses over the past three years, with a projected net profit loss of 294 million yuan for 2024 [14][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is expected to continue the pattern of being stronger in the domestic market and weaker in the international market, as well as being weaker in the near - term and stronger in the far - term. Currently, the macro - environment is favorable for copper prices, while the industrial side shows a neutral - to - bearish trend [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Impact of US Tariff Policy - On July 30, the US President announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1. The New York copper price dropped by over 18% on the same day, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper quickly narrowed to the pre - tariff - expectation level. Copper ores and cathode copper were exempted from the tariff, which is beyond market expectations. This exemption is bullish for copper prices from a global supply - demand perspective. After the spread convergence, US copper imports may decline in the second half of the year, increasing non - US copper supply and being bearish for LME and SHFE copper [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The current high global market risk appetite and the good performance of domestic and foreign equity markets are bullish for copper prices. The unexpectedly weak US non - farm data and lower - than - expected non - manufacturing PMI at the beginning of the month increased the expectation of a US economic slowdown and Fed rate - cut expectations, causing the US dollar index to fall. The market expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year, with a cumulative cut of 75 basis points [2]. - There is a risk of a macro - environment shift. If the US economy continues to weaken, copper prices will be under pressure; if the US economy stabilizes and the Fed cuts rates, it will be bullish for copper prices [3]. Domestic Market Conditions - In July, the domestic macro - environment was positive. With the "anti - involution" policy, domestic - priced commodities generally rose. The strong trend continued in late July but cooled down at the end of the month, and commodities entered an adjustment phase. The current spot industry is in the off - season, with limited impact on copper prices. Supported by the macro - environment, far - month copper contracts are stronger than near - month contracts. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory de - stocking has slowed down, while overseas copper inventory has been accumulating at a high level, resulting in the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international copper prices. Domestic upstream smelters maintain high production, and refined copper imports are expected to increase, putting pressure on the domestic industry [3]. Trade Agreement and Its Impact - In August, the new US tariff policy was implemented, and the US reached new trade agreements with major global economies, possibly extending the current tariff policy for 90 days. This reduces global economic uncertainty and is expected to keep the market risk - appetite high, which is bullish for copper prices [3]. - The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, involving a 90 - day tariff extension and non - tariff measure adjustment, indicates an improvement in Sino - US trade relations and is also bullish for copper prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, citing national security concerns, which has caused significant volatility in the global copper market [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Copper Market - The announcement of the tariff led to a 20% drop in copper futures prices on July 30, following a period of rising prices due to market speculation about the tariffs [2][3]. - Prior to the tariff announcement, copper futures had reached a record high of $5.8955 per pound, driven by expectations of the tariffs [2]. - The tariff policy has disrupted the previous premium for U.S. copper over London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, which had reached a 28% premium [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inventory Dynamics - U.S. copper inventories at the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) have surged to 232,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21,900 tons, indicating a significant buildup of stock [3]. - The U.S. imported 864,000 tons of copper in the first half of the year, up 514,000 tons from the previous year, reflecting increased demand amid tariff speculation [3]. - The potential for excess inventory in the U.S. market may suppress COMEX copper prices, with concerns about inventory outflows impacting LME prices and domestic prices in China [3]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on copper prices, long-term demand for copper is expected to rise due to trends in electric vehicles, data centers, and grid modernization, which may support higher copper prices [3][5]. - The U.S. is the second-largest consumer of copper globally, with projected consumption of approximately 1.6 million tons in 2024, while domestic production remains limited [5]. - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for refined copper, with 46% of its refined copper needs met through imports, highlighting a critical gap in its supply chain [5]. Group 4: Future Policy Considerations - The U.S. government is considering further tariffs on refined copper, with potential rates of 15% starting in 2027, increasing to 30% in subsequent years, which could impact domestic production and investment [6]. - The proposed export licensing for high-quality copper scrap aims to ensure a stable supply of raw materials while promoting domestic refining capacity [6]. - The effectiveness of the tariff policy in fostering domestic copper industry growth remains uncertain, as significant capital investment and time are required to develop new refining capabilities [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The rising spot premium restricts the decline of copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,040 with a daily decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 78,010 with a decline of 0.04%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,607 with a decline of 1.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 109,011, an increase of 53,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 176,193, an increase of 4,504. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 46,546, an increase of 30,514, and the open interest was 271,000, an increase of 221 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 19,622, a decrease of 351, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,200, an increase of 1,350. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.87% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 50.76, a decrease of 3.96 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,600, an increase of 100. The spot - to - near - term futures spread was 165, an increase of 55 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a 4 - month high. Trump said the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days, and the US Commerce Secretary claimed to have reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand [1] - **Micro News**: Chile expects to get Trump's tariff exemption, causing New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to decline generally. Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and development projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1 [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected announcement of a 50% tariff on certain copper imports by the U.S. government has led to a significant decline in copper prices, reversing previous gains in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. White House announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1 [1]. - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices fell over 18%, with the September contract dropping to $4.445 per pound, a decline of 20.4% [2]. - The premium of U.S. copper over LME copper decreased to $104, down from over $3,000 in recent months [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments and Future Outlook - The LME benchmark copper price fell by 0.03% to $9,695.5 per ton [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current price of $4.5 per pound for U.S. copper is reasonable, reflecting pre-tariff levels [4]. - There is an expectation that as U.S. inventories decrease and the impact of tariffs on downstream products is felt, Comex copper prices may rise again, potentially leading to a sustained U.S. premium [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced significant trade policy adjustments, including high tariffs on key raw materials like copper, indicating a comprehensive escalation of protectionist policies [1][2][4] - A trade agreement with South Korea includes a 15% tariff on imports, while South Korea commits to invest $350 billion in U.S. projects and purchase $100 billion in LNG [2] - Tariffs on Brazilian products have been raised to 50%, with certain products like wood pulp and oil exempted from the increase [2] Group 2 - A 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives will take effect on August 1, leading to a significant drop in international copper prices, with a historic single-day decline of 17.7% [3][4] - The U.S. will suspend the tax exemption for low-value goods, meaning imports valued at or below $800 will be subject to all applicable tariffs, aimed at tightening trade policies [4] - The measures are justified under the guise of "national security" according to the U.S. Trade Expansion Act of 1962, raising concerns about potential retaliatory actions from trade partners and impacts on global supply chains [4]