分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货-沪铜2025年四季报 供需收紧，铜价震荡偏强 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年9月29日 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 2 ➢ 宏观方面：三季度美联储交易降息预期，市场有降息50bp的预期，且对美联储独立性存疑，美元指数连续下挫，铜价震荡偏强但降息靴子落地后不及市场预 期，沪铜盘面下行，回吐部分涨幅。232调查的铜关税落地，自8月1日起对进口铜半成品及铜含量高的衍生产品统一征收50%的关税，征收范围不包含铜矿及 精铜，此前美国铜虹吸效应逐渐结束。国内方面，反内卷举措推涨大宗商品行情，一揽子政策发布，加速上游产业端产能出清。 ➢ 供给方面：2025年2月以来，铜冶炼厂加工费TC/RC一直维持负值，且持续走弱，冶炼端的利润走弱也在侧面反映出了铜矿端的偏紧事实，据Mysteel数据显示，9月国内 冶炼厂计划产量为114.76万吨，10月预计产量112.35万吨 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The report indicates that recent overseas trading focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and independence issues. The falling US dollar index supports the non - ferrous metals market. Fundamentally, domestic copper inventories are still low, and copper supply is expected to be tight. Both refined copper and scrap copper rod production are expected to decrease. Demand is about to enter the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Therefore, copper prices are expected to be mainly in a volatile and upward trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [1]. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The US JOLTS job openings data is weak, strengthening market expectations of an interest - rate cut, but the Fed's independence is questioned, leading to high market uncertainty and a rebound in the US dollar index [1]. - In July, China's imports of copper ore concentrates were about 2.56 million tons, a significant increase month - on - month, and port inventories of concentrates also rebounded from the bottom. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point, they continued to decline in the recent two periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high level, and its contribution to smelter profits will decline. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons, and domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline month - on - month [1]. - After the copper tariff takes effect, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market. With the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market and affect pricing [1]. - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is currently in the off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities drives copper demand. However, due to the US tariff and trade policies in the first half of the year, there was a rush to export household appliances, which over - drew the export demand in the second half of the year. The domestic subsidy policy of "trading in the old for the new" also advanced domestic demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low, rose during the day, and then declined, with the closing price at 79,770 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On September 1, 2025, the LME official price was $9,952/ton, and the spot premium was - $79/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of August 29, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.25/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.12 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 19,800 tons, an increase of 358 tons from the previous period. As of September 1, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 82,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,400 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 284,400 short tons, an increase of 3,325 short tons from the previous period [11].

Group 1 - The copper industry stocks have mostly risen, with notable increases in companies such as Minmetals Resources (+2.61%), Luoyang Molybdenum (+1.53%), Jiangxi Copper (+0.82%), and Zijin Mining (+0.74%) [1] - A mining accident in Chile's O'Higgins region resulted in the death of 6 individuals, including 5 trapped miners, prompting Codelco to initiate an investigation and halt underground operations [1] - The affected mine accounts for over 25% of Codelco's total production, which was 356,000 tons of copper last year, raising concerns about potential impacts on production targets [1] Group 2 - On July 30, the U.S. President signed an announcement addressing the national security implications of copper imports, imposing tariffs on certain copper products [2] - The tariffs do not affect copper raw materials, leading to the disappearance of the COMEX copper premium, while U.S. copper imports have already exceeded last year's total, with 74.3% being unaffected by tariffs [2] - It is anticipated that traders will redirect copper shipments away from the U.S. to other markets such as Europe and Asia, with LME and SHFE copper prices expected to be driven by supply and demand dynamics [2]

Group 1: Copper Market Update - Most copper stocks have risen, with Minmetals Resources up 2.61% at HKD 3.93, Luoyang Molybdenum up 1.53% at HKD 9.31, Jiangxi Copper up 0.82% at HKD 16.02, and Zijin Mining up 0.74% at HKD 21.82 [1] - A mining accident in Chile's O'Higgins region resulted in 6 deaths, with all 5 trapped miners confirmed dead. Codelco has initiated an investigation and halted underground operations, impacting production targets [1] - The affected mine accounts for over 25% of Codelco's total output, which produced 356,000 tons of copper last year. The news of the mine's shutdown has heightened tensions in the already tight copper market [1] Group 2: U.S. Copper Import Tariffs - On July 30, U.S. President Trump signed an announcement addressing the impact of copper imports on national security, imposing tariffs on certain copper products. However, raw copper materials are not restricted by these tariffs [2] - As a result, the COMEX copper premium has disappeared, and U.S. copper imports have already exceeded last year's total, with 74.3% of imports being unaffected by tariffs [2] - It is anticipated that traders will cease shipping copper to the U.S., redirecting it to other markets such as Europe and Asia. LME copper is expected to return to supply-demand pricing, with current LME copper inventories increasing and domestic demand being weak [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report After the copper tariff is implemented, the market returns to fundamentals. The US non - farm payroll data increases the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar supports copper prices. The fundamentals remain in a loose logic, but the low domestic inventory limits the downside space, with the overall trend being weak. Attention should be paid to the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The US July non - farm payrolls only added 73,000, with the June data significantly revised down to 14,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 37.7% to 90%, strengthening the expectation of two rate cuts within the year. - In July, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year. TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling and rebounded. Three smelters have maintenance plans in the third quarter. Currently, smelters can still make up for losses with by - products such as sulfuric acid. - In the off - season, demand is weak, and market trading sentiment is tepid. The subsequent imposition of tariffs on copper semi - finished products may affect export demand. The SHFE inventory is still at a low level and has not significantly accumulated, supporting the price [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened high, then declined, and rebounded at the end of the session, closing at 78,330 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 4,500 to 106,069 lots, and the short positions decreased by 985 to 109,223 lots. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 130 yuan/ton, and in South China it is - 55 yuan/ton. On August 1, 2025, the LME official price was 9,592 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 56.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side As of August 1, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 41.99 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.19 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory is 0.67 million tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period. As of August 1, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 7.51 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons from the previous period. - LME copper inventory was 139,575 tons, a slight decrease of 2,175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 259,681 short tons, an increase of 1,766 short tons from the previous period [9].

Core Viewpoint - The newly announced U.S. copper tariff policy is less severe than expected, imposing a 50% tariff only on semi-finished copper products while exempting refined copper products [2] Group 1: Tariff Details - Effective August 1, a 50% tariff will be applied to imports of semi-finished copper products such as copper tubes, plates, and rods [2] - Refined copper products, including cathodes and anodes, are not subject to the new tariffs, which was an unexpected outcome [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices plummeted by 20%, and the premium of New York copper prices over LME prices, which had recently reached 30%, significantly narrowed [2] - LME copper prices remained largely unaffected by the tariff news [2] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - In the medium term, there may be some support for copper prices as the U.S. continues to procure copper normally on the international market [2] - However, due to anticipated tariffs, U.S. copper inventories have been sufficiently stocked, leading to a potential decrease in short-term procurement levels [2] Group 4: Domestic Production Impact - The tariffs are expected to boost the domestic sales of semi-finished copper products, aiming to enhance the output of U.S. copper smelters [2] - If domestic production costs are significantly higher than those of regular suppliers, the tariffs could negatively impact U.S. copper production levels [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, copper prices first strengthened and then weakened. Domestic anti - involution and key industry stability - growth policies initially drove up copper prices, but later macro - sentiment cooled, and the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products imposed by the Trump administration on August 1st, along with the Fed's hawkish stance, put pressure on copper prices [6][87]. - From a fundamental perspective, the supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with low processing fees and high domestic smelter output. Low inventories support copper prices, but terminal consumption is in the off - season, and the supply - demand weakness may drag down copper prices. After the US copper import tariff is clear, overseas inventories have increased significantly, and there is still downward pressure on copper prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [88]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices first strengthened and then weakened. Domestic policies and the weakening of the US dollar initially boosted copper prices, but later, the cooling of domestic macro - sentiment, the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products, and the Fed's hawkish stance led to a decline in copper prices. The sharp drop in US copper by over 20% also drove down Shanghai and London copper prices [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation showed a moderate increase in June. The CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year. In July, non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but the poor non - farm data increased the probability of a rate cut this year [12][13]. - The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range in July, with the ISM manufacturing index at 48, lower than expected. The Markit manufacturing PMI hit a new low since December last year, while the service PMI reached a new high. The US dollar index first weakened and then strengthened in July, putting pressure on commodity prices [15]. Domestic Macroeconomy - China's CPI turned positive in June, rising 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached a 14 - month high. The PPI decline widened to 3.6%. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged in July. From January to June, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, more than the same period last year. The scissors gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [22]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, indicating that overall business activities were still expanding. From January to June, China's fixed - asset investment increased by more than 5% year - on - year [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - From January to May, the global copper concentrate production capacity was 12.105 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the production was 9.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.27%. The copper production in Chile and Peru from January to May was 323,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% [31]. Smelting - The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the conflict between mines and smelters persists. As of August 1st, the spot smelting fee (TC) for copper concentrates was - 42 dollars per ton, and the processing fee has been at a historical low [33]. Refined Copper - In June, the utilization rate of copper production capacity increased to 82.69%, and the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. In July, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, remained strong, partially offsetting the losses at the smelting end [37]. Import and Export - In June, China's refined copper imports were 300,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.11%. As of July 31st, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 8.11, and the import profit was negative [38]. Scrap Copper - In June, domestic scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.49% but a month - on - month decrease of 1.06%. In July, the price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed [42]. Processing - In June, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 67.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points, but it increased to 71.73% as of August 1st. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises in June was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 3.69% [44][45]. Terminal Demand - From January to June, China's power grid project investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, and power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In June, the cumulative new installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power continued to grow, but the growth rate is expected to slow down in the second half of the year [50]. - In June, the real estate completion area decreased by 14.8% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year. The real estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage, dragging down copper demand [53]. - In June, China's automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.234 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.39%. The new - energy vehicle market maintains high - level development [59]. - In June, the production of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners maintained a certain growth rate, and the domestic "Two New" policies are expected to support the demand for copper in the home appliance industry [61]. Inventory - As of August 1st, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 72,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.24%. As of July 28th, the domestic social copper inventory was 120,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.48%. The global visible copper inventory has rebounded from a low level [63][66]. Premium and Discount - In July, the domestic spot premium first rose and then fell. After the US copper tariff was implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory increased, and the LME copper spot/3 - month changed from a premium to a discount [68][69]. Domestic and Overseas Positions - In July, the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper was 83,728.74 lots. As of August 1st, the Shanghai copper position was 176,193 lots, a decrease of 21.34% from the beginning of the month. The net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased significantly [79]. 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to continue its short - term downward oscillation trend, with support at the 77,600 level. The reference range for copper prices in August is expected to be between 77,000 and 80,000 [83]. 5. Future Outlook - From a macro perspective, the weak US manufacturing PMI and poor non - farm payroll data increase the probability of a rate cut this year. The Trump administration's 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and the cooling of domestic macro - sentiment put pressure on copper prices [87]. - Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates is tight, and low inventories support copper prices, but the off - season terminal consumption and the supply - demand weakness may drag down copper prices. After the US copper import tariff is clear, overseas inventories have increased, and there is still downward pressure on Shanghai and London copper prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [88].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 2025/08/02 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The internal and external basis fluctuates strongly, the refined scrap price difference narrows, and the global visible inventory increases, with the copper valuation being slightly on the long side. In terms of drivers, the increase in copper concentrate processing fees has a neutral impact on the copper price, the surge in the US dollar index is bearish, and the improvement in the global manufacturing PMI is bullish [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has increased slightly, and the processing fee of blister copper has risen month - on - month. The supply of cold materials has marginally eased. In June, Chile's copper production decreased significantly month - on - month and turned from an increase to a decrease year - on - year. The EI Teniente copper mine accident may exacerbate the tight supply situation [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 21,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1,000 tons to 73,000 tons, LME increased by 13,000 tons to 142,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 8,000 tons to 234,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 4,000 tons [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import of domestic electrolytic copper maintained a small loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,000 tons, and the net imports were 258,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1% [11]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and the spot supply was relatively tight. The refined scrap price difference in the domestic market narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The copper price fluctuated weakly. The main contract of SHFE copper fell 1.07% week - on - week, and LME copper fell 0.66% to $9,633/ton [23]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of copper showed a downward trend. The price difference between different regions and varieties also changed [25]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price fluctuated weakly, and the basis quotation rebounded. The LME inventory continued to increase, and the Cash/3M maintained a discount [28]. - **Structure**: The near - month structure of SHFE copper futures flattened; the near - month Contango of LME copper shrank, and the far - month Contango structure expanded [31]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate increased slightly, and the sulfuric acid price in East China remained flat, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [36]. - **Import and Export Ratio**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import of copper had a small loss [41]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area also increased. The inventory reduction of SHFE came from Jiangsu and Shanghai, and the LME inventory increase came from Asian warehouses [44][47][50]. 4. Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: In July 2025, China's refined copper output increased by nearly 40,000 tons month - on - month, reaching a new high, and it is expected to decline slightly in August [55]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In June 2025, China's copper ore imports decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of refined copper increased year - on - year, and the export increased month - on - month [58][61][64]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: China's manufacturing PMI declined in June, and the manufacturing prosperity of overseas major economies was divided [80]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: In June, the output of some downstream industries such as power generation equipment increased year - on - year, while the output of color TVs decreased [83]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to June, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, and the national real estate prosperity index continued to decline in June [86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate**: The operating rates of most downstream copper enterprises showed a downward trend in June, and some are expected to continue to decline in July [89][92][95]. - **Refined Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined scrap price difference narrowed slightly [100]. 6. Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper decreased by 55,866 to 965,272 lots (bilateral) [105]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of July 22, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds rebounded as of July 25 [108].

Core Viewpoint - The recent implementation of copper tariffs in the U.S. has led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices, with a decline of over 18% on the announcement day and nearly 30% from the peak on July 24 [1][2]. Market Reaction - The market had anticipated a 50% tariff on refined copper, which resulted in a substantial premium for COMEX copper over LME and Shanghai copper. However, the final announcement excluded refined copper from the tariff, leading to a rapid correction in prices [2][3]. - Following the tariff announcement, the price difference between U.S. copper and LME copper narrowed to approximately $150 per ton, indicating a return to more normalized pricing [3]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of July 30, COMEX copper inventories reached 255,948 short tons, the highest level since 2004. This high inventory level is expected to persist, as it may take around six months to digest the current stock without considering exports [4]. - The potential for U.S. copper to flow back into the market is limited in the short term, as domestic demand and pricing dynamics will dictate the timing of any exports [4]. Global Copper Market Outlook - The global copper supply remains tight, with low processing fees and reduced production forecasts from key mines, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - Despite the current supply constraints, demand is weakening, particularly in the off-season, leading to an accumulation of copper inventories [5]. - Future copper prices are expected to remain volatile but may trend slightly upward due to supply limitations, with extreme price levels potentially reaching 84,000 to 85,000 yuan per ton [6]. However, short-term downward pressure exists due to inflation concerns and a stronger dollar [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips in August. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, and the overall shortage of copper mines throughout the year supports copper prices. In the short - term, due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the further decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are in a continuous adjustment, with a support level at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, and the tight supply of copper mines will continue to support copper prices, so the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7]. Summary by Directory 01后市研判 - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, providing support for copper prices. In the short - term, copper prices are adjusting due to tariff implementation and the decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, with a support at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, expect two interest - rate cuts this year, and continue to maintain the buying - on - dips strategy [6][7]. 02行情回顾 - In July, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the 232 policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. On July 14, copper prices hit the monthly low of 77,700 yuan/ton. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. But after the sentiment faded, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [9][10]. 03宏观面 - **International Situation**: On August 1, the 50% copper tariff excluded electrolytic copper, copper ore, and scrap copper. Excluding the electrolytic copper tariff made the CME market almost eliminate the tariff premium, and there is a possibility of US electrolytic copper flowing out, accelerating the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. In July, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, causing the September interest - rate cut expectation to decline further, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as the tariff situation eases and the actual US CPI shows a moderate increase, the market has been lowering CPI expectations, opening up space for interest - rate cuts in Q3, and there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, which will gradually remove the upward pressure on metals [8]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than expected. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value increased by 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than expected. The strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further reduced [20]. - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of growth - stabilizing policies. From the supply side, according to the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025 - 2027)", copper smelting development will shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, and the contradiction between mining and smelting is expected to be gradually alleviated. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" policies focus on a new round of growth - stabilizing actions, and the stable growth of the manufacturing industry will boost copper demand. In the medium - to - long - term, after the elimination of over - capacity, the supply growth rate may lag behind the demand improvement rate, further pushing up the copper price [23][26]. 04基本面 - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supply from the top two suppliers, Chile and Peru, continued to decline, with Peru's decline being around 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners this year are zero, and the spot processing fees remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [27]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates remained relatively inactive, and the processing fees showed a trend of "stabilizing with a slight correction". The 2025 Q2 CSPC general manager's meeting decided not to set a reference figure for the Q3 spot copper concentrate processing fees [30]. - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the rush to import copper started in April. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average of 80,000 tons, causing a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. As of June 30, the LME inventory dropped to 90,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the beginning of the year. With the implementation of the 232 policy, the LME inventory started to increase, reaching 128,000 tons by July 25. The New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high in more than seven years. As of July 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the 28th [33]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons, or 11.40%. In July, the estimated production was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss - making stage, the willingness to actively reduce production is not strong [36]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to rise by more than 20%, and the supply from Asian countries such as Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea also increased to varying degrees, while the supply from the US decreased by more than 80%. Due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, the increased supply from other countries compensated for the decrease from the US [39]. - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: In 2025, the State Grid's investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the power grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power source project investment increased by 5.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the over - expected growth of photovoltaic and wind power installations. If the two - grid companies complete their planned investment of 825 billion yuan, there is still significant room for growth in power grid investment. Affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41%. From January to June, China's cable exports were 1.4296 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.63%. The "Belt and Road" countries have great potential in promoting China's power material exports [41]. - **Real Estate Sector**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and housing construction area decreased by 9.1%. New housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and housing completions decreased by 14.8%. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventory is decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [45]. - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is approaching 50%. China's automobile exports were 3.083 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 75.2%. The growth of the automobile industry will drive copper consumption [48]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the combined production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The production plan for household air - conditioners in August was 11.443 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, but the decline was expected to narrow compared to the previous month. The high - temperature weather in summer and the "trade - in" subsidy policy promoted air - conditioner sales and inventory digestion [51].