周三伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜收跌136美元，报12423美元/吨，2025年累计上涨近42%，创下16年 来的最大年度涨幅。分析师预计，在美国于2026年中期就铜关税作出决定之前，CME相对于LME的溢 价将继续吸引铜流入美国库存，从而使传统消费中心的供应趋紧。Commodity Market Analytics董事总经 理Dan Smith称："我认为不会很快出现逆转，这些流动主要是由套利驱动，而且仍然受制于美国的政 策，而美国的政策很难预测。"Smith称，在消费方面，季节性因素将为铜提供短期支撑，第一季度往往 支持工业周期，在夏季来临之前会大量补充库存。（格隆汇） ...

格隆汇12月6日｜据央视财经，近期，铜价上涨受到多重因素影响。其中，市场普遍预测特朗普政府明 年或对铜加征关税，进一步加剧了对铜供应的担忧。分析师称，为规避关税，近期出现包括铜在内大量 金属运往美国的情况，全球铜库存可能很快降至危急的低位水平。 ...

铜价周三(12月3日)进一步创下了历史新高，因伦敦金属交易所仓库提货订单激增，加剧了市场对美国潜在关税将加剧全球供应紧张的担 忧。 行情数据显示，伦铜期货周三大涨了2.72%，盘中一度最高触及每吨11540美元，超越了周一刚创下的历史峰值。随着铜价进一步飙升， 矿业股也同步走高——智利铜生产商Antofagasta Plc股价周三大涨逾5%，亦创下历史新高。 而最新的LME仓单数据确实反映了上述变化。LME数据显示，周二亚洲仓库铜净注销仓单规模达50,725吨，这使得LME的铜注册仓单数 量降至了7月以来的最低水平105275吨。 伦敦金属交易所仓储网络中的铜材，目前主要来自中国和俄罗斯。而作为全球最大的铜消费区域，亚洲仓库提货活动的骤然升温，也标 志着更多持有仓单的贸易商或下游用户正试图将铜从LME仓库中实际提出，其中很大的一部分可能正运往美国套利。 值得一提的是，周三，LME现货铜相对三个月合约的溢价达到了每吨86美元，为10月中旬以来最高，也表明近期铜市场供应紧张。 道明证券高级大宗商品策略师Dan Ghali表示，"关税威胁在明年上半年对铜市的影响最为确定，这将成为推动价格上涨的极强劲催化剂。 市场微 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices opened lower but closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.3% to 6849.72 points, the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.17% to 23454.09 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.86% to 47882.9 points, despite weak labor market data and concerns over Microsoft's AI product sales [1] - The S&P 500 index is only 71 points away from its high of 6920 points set on October 29, and just 21 points from its closing high of 6870 points [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The recent surge in stock prices is being led not by large tech companies but by lithium carbonate giants such as Albemarle, Eli Lilly, and Boehringer Ingelheim [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.38%, with notable declines in stocks like NIO and XPeng, which dropped over 4%, and Li Auto and New Oriental, which fell over 3% [3] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Copper prices reached a historical high, with LME three-month copper prices rising by 2.59% to $11,435 per ton, and Shanghai copper futures surpassing 90,000 yuan per ton [4] - Tin prices also increased, with LME three-month tin rising by 3.45% to $40,385 per ton, and Shanghai tin futures up by 3.05% to 318,770 yuan per ton, marking the highest levels since May 2022 [6] - Spot silver rose by 0.27% to $58.59 per ounce, while spot gold increased by over 0.50% to $4,226 per ounce, and WTI crude oil rose by over 1% to $59.23 per barrel [7] Group 4: Copper Supply Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts that severe supply disruptions and global inventory mismatches could push copper prices to $12,500 per ton by mid-2026 [8] - LME data shows a significant increase in copper delivery requests, with a surge of 50,575 tons, the largest increase since 2013 [8] - The global copper supply chain is facing vulnerabilities due to factors such as stagnant production growth in Chile, delays in African projects, and export restrictions in Indonesia [9]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）仓库的铜订单量激增，叠加市场对美国潜在关祱或引发全球铜供应紧缩的担 忧，铜价已攀升至历史新高。 伦敦金属交易所数据显示，亚洲地区仓库的铜订单量大幅增长。此后，该交易所铜价一度上涨 2.6%， 突破每吨 1.14 万美元，超过本周一创下的峰值。矿业股同步走高，智利铜生产商安托法加斯塔公司 （Antofagasta Plc）股价涨幅超 5%，创下历史新高。 责任编辑：郭明煜 伦敦金属交易所（LME）仓库的铜订单量激增，叠加市场对美国潜在关祱或引发全球铜供应紧缩的担 忧，铜价已攀升至历史新高。 伦敦金属交易所数据显示，亚洲地区仓库的铜订单量大幅增长。此后，该交易所铜价一度上涨 2.6%， 突破每吨 1.14 万美元，超过本周一创下的峰值。矿业股同步走高，智利铜生产商安托法加斯塔公司 （Antofagasta Plc）股价涨幅超 5%，创下历史新高。 作为工业领域的 "风向标金属"，铜价近几周持续走高。越来越多的交易员和分析师警告，由于市场预 期关祱出台，大量铜正被运往美国，全球铜库存可能很快降至极低水平。 今年以来，伦敦金属交易所的铜价基准已上涨超 30%，而美国铜期货涨幅更高 —— 投资者 ...

发布日期：2025年12月1日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 冠通期货研究报告 --12月沪铜月度报告 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 核心观点—沪铜 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 ，2 ➢ 宏观方面：月内美国政府超历史记录的停摆结束，经济数据不断揭示，影响宏观环境的走势。目前市场聚焦于美联储降息情况，月内美 联储官员释放鹰派言论，降息概率大幅下挫，而随着经济数据的不断发布，降息概率提升，美元走弱，提振金属行情。国内11月份，制 造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 ➢ 供给方面：全球第二大铜矿印尼铜矿发生泥石流事故停产后，计划自2026年第二季度（7月）起，分阶段重启大规模生产，后续铜矿偏 紧预期将有缓解，稳定铜价。由于冶炼厂集中在10月、11月检修，预计随着工厂的复产，12月铜国内产量将增加。铜冶炼 ...

Core Insights - The copper arbitrage trading, previously impacted by tariffs, is resurging as traders bet on potential high tariffs on copper by the Trump administration next year [1][2] - Major trading firms like Mercuria, Vitol, and Trafigura are negotiating annual supply agreements for copper with Chilean producers for 2026, with offers exceeding the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price by over $500 per ton [1][2] - The expectation of renewed tariffs has led to a significant increase in New York Comex copper prices, which are now substantially higher than LME futures prices [1][2] Group 1 - Earlier this year, traders like Mercuria and Trafigura profited significantly by shipping large quantities of copper to the U.S. before the initial tariff proposal by Trump in February [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the imposition of a 15% tariff until 2027, increasing to 30% by 2028, creating uncertainty that traders are capitalizing on [2] - Traders are willing to pay high premiums for copper as they anticipate being able to resell it at higher prices in the U.S. market [2] Group 2 - In July, the Trump administration's unexpected exemption of raw copper from tariffs led to a dramatic market reaction, with Comex copper futures dropping 22% in a single day, marking the largest decline since at least 1988 [3][4] - The exemption caused a rapid disappearance of the price premium that Comex copper had over LME prices, leading to a shift to a discount [3] - Following the exemption announcement, the number of profitable put options surged, indicating a significant market shift [4]

Group 1 - Hong Kong copper stocks experienced a collective rebound, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals leading the rise at approximately 9%, followed by Jiangxi Copper at 3%, and China Gold International and China Nonferrous Mining both up by 1.3% [1] - Mining giant Glencore is reportedly planning to close its Horne smelter and associated copper refinery in Quebec, Canada, due to environmental issues and the substantial capital required for upgrades [1] - The Horne smelter has an estimated annual production capacity of over 300,000 tons, accounting for about 17% of copper imports to the United States, indicating a significant impact on the North American copper supply chain [1] Group 2 - Earlier this year, traders moved large quantities of copper into the U.S. market in anticipation of potential tariffs on copper, which led to a surge in copper prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) [1] - In August, former President Trump decided against imposing tariffs on bulk copper, instead targeting value-added copper products, while still leaving the possibility of tariffs on raw copper starting in 2027 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that copper stocks in Hong Kong have collectively rebounded, led by China Daye Nonferrous Metals with a rise of approximately 9% [1] - Glencore is planning to close its Horne smelter and associated copper refinery in Quebec, Canada, due to environmental issues and the need for significant capital investment for upgrades [1] - The Horne smelter has an estimated annual production capacity of over 300,000 tons, accounting for about 17% of copper imports to the United States, indicating a potential disruption in the North American copper supply chain [1] Group 2 - Earlier this year, traders moved large quantities of copper into the U.S. market in anticipation of potential tariffs on copper, leading to a surge in copper prices on the COMEX [1] - In August, former President Trump decided not to impose tariffs on bulk copper but targeted tariffs on processed copper products, while leaving the possibility of tariffs on raw copper starting in 2027 [1] Group 3 - The stock performance of key companies includes: - China Daye Nonferrous Metals: latest price 0.098, up 8.89% - Jiangxi Copper: latest price 30.740, up 2.95% - China Gold International: latest price 125.400, up 1.37% - China Nonferrous Mining: latest price 13.390, up 1.36% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Aspect**: In Q3, the market expected a 50bp Fed rate cut, and the US dollar index declined. After the rate cut, the copper price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped. The 232 - investigation copper tariff took effect on August 1st, ending the US copper siphon effect. In China, anti - involution measures boosted the commodity market, and a series of policies accelerated the capacity clearance in the upstream industrial sector [6]. - **Supply Aspect**: Since February 2025, the copper smelter processing fees TC/RC have been negative and weakening. According to Mysteel, the planned production in September was 1.1476 million tons, and the expected production in October is 1.1235 million tons, a new low since April. 10 smelters will be affected by maintenance in September and October, and the shortage of scrap copper supply will also lead to significant production cuts [6]. - **Demand Aspect**: Entering the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream copper product production has improved, and copper demand remains resilient. However, due to high prices, the downstream's willingness to purchase has weakened, and the Shanghai copper inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the inventory will first decrease and then increase in Q4 [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: The Fed rate cut and China's incremental policies boost the copper market sentiment. The supply is tight, while the demand from power grids, new energy, etc. provides rigid support. It is expected that the copper price will rise in fluctuations in Q4, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production of mines and the Fed rate - cut process [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Economic Environment - **Domestic Economic Data**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from July. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points. The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [12][13]. - **Stable Growth Work Plan**: From 2025 - 2026, the non - ferrous metal industry aims for an average annual growth of about 5% in added value and 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals. It involves resource exploration, product innovation, project construction, consumption upgrade, and stabilizing foreign trade [16]. - **Fed Rate Cut**: On September 18th, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut in 2025. It is expected that there may be another 50bp of rate cuts this year [20]. Tariff Policy - The US imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - products and derivatives with high copper content starting from August 1st, which affected the global copper market and inventory distribution [22]. Supply - **Global Supply**: From January - July 2025, global copper mine production increased by about 3.4%, and refined copper production increased by about 3.9%. There was an apparent surplus of about 101,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [27]. - **Overseas Supply**: In July, Peru's copper production decreased by 2% year - on - year, and Chile's increased by 0.3%. The mudslide at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine and the tunnel collapse at Chile's Codelco will reduce copper production [32]. - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In August 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.7593 million tons. Although the cumulative imports from January - August increased by 8.07% year - on - year, overseas accidents and declining ore grades keep the supply tight [36]. - **Copper Smelting**: Since February 2025, TC/RC has been negative. The planned production in September and expected production in October decreased. 10 smelters will be affected by maintenance in September and October [42]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In August, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 tons month - on - month. It is expected that production will continue to decrease in October due to maintenance and scrap copper shortages [51]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports decreased by 5.64% month - on - month. Affected by the US copper tariff, imports from the US decreased significantly, and the supply is expected to remain tight in Q4 [53]. Demand - **Copper Products**: In September 2025, the expected output of refined copper rods was 1.0389 million tons, a 4.08% month - on - month increase. The demand for copper foil is expected to increase during the peak season, and the demand for copper tubes from home appliances will also be boosted [56]. - **Power Grid and Power Source Investment**: From January - August 2025, the power grid investment was 379.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 14%. The power source investment was 499.2 billion yuan, with a 0.5% growth. It is expected that the national power grid investment will reach 660 - 670 billion yuan in 2025, with a 10% growth [62]. - **Real Estate**: From January - August, the construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real estate all decreased year - on - year. The government's policies are expected to stabilize the market, but currently, it still drags down copper demand [68]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.171 million, a 18.3% year - on - year increase. From January - August, the cumulative sales were 8.088 million, a 30.1% increase. The production increase in Q4 will drive copper demand [72]. - **Home Appliances**: Affected by the US tariff and pre - placed policies, the home appliance demand may lack momentum in the second half of the year, but there will still be a month - on - month increase in the peak season [78]. Inventory - **Global Exchanges**: Before July, due to the US copper tariff, the copper inventory in the US increased while that in other regions decreased. After the tariff took effect, the COMEX - LME premium returned to normal, and the LME inventory rebounded [85]. - **Domestic Exchanges**: The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the tariff took effect. Recently, due to high prices, the inventory has accumulated but decreased slightly due to holiday replenishment. It is expected to first decrease and then increase in Q4. The bonded - area inventory has been fluctuating slightly [90]. - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of September 26th, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 131,800 tons, similar to the SHFE inventory trend, and is expected to first decrease and then increase in Q4 [94].