铜周报 2025/11/22 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 地缘层面对市场情绪有所压制 CONTENTS 目录 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费下滑，粗铜加工费持平，冷料供应边际偏宽松。消息面，智利国家铜业（Codelco）对2026年CIF韩国电解铜长单报 价在330美元/吨，较2025年85美元/吨上涨245美元/吨。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加3.8万吨，其中上期所库存增加0.1至11.1万吨，LME库存增加1.9至15.5万吨，COMEX库存增加1.7至36.2万吨 上海保税区库存增加0.5万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货90元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M升水1.1美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损缩窄，洋山铜溢价反弹。海关总署数据显示，2025年10月我国精炼铜进口量32.3万吨，净进口量为25.7万 吨，环比减少9.0万吨 ...

资料显示，浙江海亮股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州市滨江区协同路368号海亮科研大厦10楼，成立日期 2001年10月29日，上市日期2008年1月16日，公司主营业务涉及铜管、铜棒、铜管接件、铜铝复合导 体、铝型材等产品的研发、生产制造和销售。主营业务收入构成为：铜管61.25%，原材料等23.03%， 铜棒7.25%，铜箔4.51%，铜排3.59%，其他0.37%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，交银施罗德基金旗下1只基金重仓海亮股份。交银慧选睿信一年持有期混合(FOF)A （015326）三季度持有股数47.78万股，占基金净值比例为1.49%，位居第二大重仓股。根据测算，今日 浮盈赚取约29.15万元。 交银慧选睿信一年持有期混合(FOF)A（015326）成立日期2022年7月27日，最新规模2.86亿。今年以来 收益18.11%，同类排名189/342；近一年收益17.6%，同类排名175/330；成立以来收益3.16%。 11月21日，海亮股份涨5.3%，截至发稿，报12.12元/股，成交3.67亿元，换手率1.39%，总市值277.76亿 元。 交银慧选睿信一年持有期混合(FOF)A（015326 ...

截至9月30日，海亮股份股东户数3.06万，较上期增加83.72%；人均流通股72273股，较上期减少 37.65%。2025年1月-9月，海亮股份实现营业收入650.18亿元，同比减少4.56%；归母净利润9.25亿元， 同比增长5.21%。 分红方面，海亮股份A股上市后累计派现24.86亿元。近三年，累计派现10.65亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出169.01万元，特大单买入364.04万元，占比3.47%，卖出0.00元，占比 0.00%；大单买入1588.35万元，占比15.15%，卖出2121.40万元，占比20.24%。 海亮股份今年以来股价涨8.86%，近5个交易日涨4.49%，近20日跌7.86%，近60日跌5.66%。 今年以来海亮股份已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为8月4日。 11月13日，海亮股份盘中上涨2.06%，截至10:01，报11.41元/股，成交1.05亿元，换手率0.42%，总市值 261.49亿元。 资料显示，浙江海亮股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州市滨江区协同路368号海亮科研大厦10楼，成立日期 2001年10月29日，上市日期2008年1月16日，公司主营业务 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of copper arbitrage trading as traders bet on the potential reintroduction of high tariffs on copper by the Trump administration in the coming year [1][2] - Major trading firms, including Mercuria Energy Group, Vitol Group, and Trafigura Group, are negotiating annual agreements for copper supply to the U.S. for 2026, with offers exceeding the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price by over $500 per ton [1][2] - The expectation of renewed tariffs has led to a significant increase in the price of copper on the New York Comex, which is now substantially higher than LME prices, indicating a potential continuation of market volatility [1][2] Group 2 - Earlier this year, traders like Mercuria and Trafigura profited significantly by shipping large quantities of copper to the U.S. before the initial tariff announcement, which resulted in record import levels and pushed copper prices to historical highs despite weak demand [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the implementation of tariffs until 2027, with a proposed 15% tariff increasing to 30% by 2028, creating uncertainty that traders are eager to exploit [2] - The willingness of traders to pay high premiums for copper is driven by the potential for higher resale prices in the U.S. market [2]

被特朗普之前雷声大雨点小的关税令暴击才过去三个月，曾被称为"现代史上最赚钱大宗商品交易之 一"的铜套利交易就卷土重来了。新近消息显示，交易商再次押注特朗普政府明年将对铜征收高关税。 交易商们之所以愿意支付如此高昂的溢价，是因为他们可以在美国市场以更高价格转售这些货物。 传出上述周五的媒体消息后，Mercuria和Trafigura的代表拒绝置评，Vitol发言人未回复置评请求。 三个月前 "史上最赚钱"交易一日崩塌 据美东时间11月7日周五的媒体报道，近几周，包括Mercuria Energy Group、维多（Vitol Group）和托克 （Trafigura Group）在内，多家贸易巨头近期与智利生产商接洽，以求锁定2026年向美国供应铜的年度 协议，部分交易商的支付价较伦敦金属交易所（LME）的基准铜价高每吨500美元以上。这些贸易商的 出价约为中国制造商现货采购价的10倍。 纽约Comex期铜价格已再次大幅高于LME的伦铜期货价。这反映了投资者对特朗普政府明年可能重启商 品级铜关税计划的预期，意味着今年震动全球铜市的大规模押注铜关税交易可能明年继续搅动市场。 关税阴影仍在 交易商豪赌关税重启 今年 ...

Summary of Hailiang Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hailiang Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Copper processing and related materials Key Points Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Hailiang's revenue decreased by 0.66% year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in trade income [2][3] - Main business revenue reached 498.95 billion CNY, an increase of 8.66% year-on-year [3] - Copper processing business revenue was 495.81 billion CNY, up 8.7%, with overseas revenue accounting for 40.5% and growing by 13.86% [2][3] - Overall copper processing sales volume increased by 0.64% to 754,800 tons [2][3] Market Performance - The U.S. market showed strong performance, with Texas operations achieving a sales volume of 12,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 135.81%, and revenue of 1.06 billion CNY, up 169.92% [2][5] - The net profit from U.S. operations turned positive, exceeding 30 million CNY, compared to a loss of nearly 40 million CNY in the same period last year [2][5] Product Segments - Copper foil business experienced a significant turnaround, with sales volume increasing by 82.07% to 42,200 tons [2][6] - Manufacturing costs for copper foil decreased by nearly 40%, with the cost per ton dropping to over 8,000 CNY [2][6] - The average processing fee per ton rose to approximately 15,000 CNY, with differentiated products making up nearly 45% of total production [2][9] Technological Innovations - Hailiang made significant advancements in technology, particularly in high-performance copper foil and ultra-thin copper foil for lithium batteries [2][10] - The company is collaborating with clients to develop new products such as nickel-plated copper foil and micro-perforated copper foil [2][10] New Business Ventures - Hailiang established a new subsidiary, Hangzhou Hailiang Precision Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 300 million CNY, focusing on precision processing and copper-based material solutions [2][11] - The company aims to transition from a traditional copper supplier to a leading provider of copper-based material solutions in the AI era, targeting high-growth sectors like AI computing, chips, and data centers [2][11][12] Market Outlook - Hailiang maintains an optimistic outlook for the U.S. market and is preparing for market changes and demand in early 2026 [2][7] - The company is also exploring opportunities in new economic sectors beyond traditional copper materials [2][7] Challenges and Risks - The third-quarter profit saw a decline due to seasonal factors and domestic processing fee pressures, but European market sales improved in September [2][4] - The company anticipates that the domestic market will continue to face challenges in the fourth quarter, particularly in the air conditioning sector [2][16] Strategic Initiatives - Hailiang is considering using treasury stock for employee stock incentives to retain talent, including the U.S. team [2][24] - The company is actively seeking entry points in the thermal management sector, with significant growth in products like heat dissipation copper bars and pipes [2][23] Future Projections - The fourth quarter is expected to show improvement compared to the third quarter, driven by increased inventory orders from downstream customers [2][22] - The Moroccan project is anticipated to significantly reduce production costs for European copper pipe products once operational [2][20] Tax and Impairment Issues - The company is facing higher tax rates due to impairment pressures, particularly related to goodwill [2][18][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Hailiang Co., Ltd.'s conference call, highlighting its financial performance, market dynamics, product innovations, and strategic initiatives.

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is transitioning from a traditional copper supplier to a "technology co-creation materials service provider," focusing on AI computing power chips, data centers, robotics, and new energy vehicles, aiming to enhance its technological barriers and value chain in high-performance non-ferrous metals and new materials [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 925 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21% - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 995 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 46.59% - The net cash flow from operating activities was 77 million yuan, up 102.30% year-on-year [1] Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary, Hangzhou Hailiang Precision Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 300 million yuan, aims to provide customized solutions in precision cooling for emerging fields [1][2] - The company is committed to becoming a "co-development partner" and "technical problem solver" for clients in the materials sector, enhancing customer stickiness and building a robust technological barrier [2] Market Trends - The demand for cooling solutions in sectors such as consumer electronics, data centers, new energy vehicles, and humanoid robots is diversifying and upgrading [2] - Copper, known for its excellent thermal conductivity and reliability, is becoming a core material in thermal management systems across various fields, with its application depth and breadth expanding with technological iterations [2] Industry Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, global power grid and infrastructure construction will contribute 60% of the growth in copper demand, with AI computing infrastructure expected to drive an additional 120,000 tons of copper demand in 2025 [3] - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is actively involved in the research and development of copper materials for new energy vehicles, energy storage batteries, and AI data centers, promoting technological innovation and efficient development [3] Global Expansion Strategy - The company has defined a global development strategy, becoming the largest and most competitive manufacturer of copper pipes and rods globally [4] - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is leveraging opportunities in the Indian market and has obtained BIS certification for its factories in Vietnam and Thailand, enhancing its global footprint [4] - The company has seen over 100% growth in order volume in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year, driven by the surge in demand for copper-based materials for cooling solutions [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the copper processing industry, with significant revenue and profit rankings, but faces challenges in debt levels and profitability compared to industry averages [1][2][3]. Company Overview - Hailiang Co., Ltd. was established on October 29, 2001, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on January 16, 2008. The company is headquartered in Zhejiang Province and is the largest copper tube and rod processing enterprise globally [1]. - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of copper tubes, rods, fittings, copper-aluminum composite conductors, and aluminum profiles, categorized under the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Hailiang reported revenue of 649.33 billion yuan, ranking 8th among 16 companies in the industry. The top competitor, Jiangxi Copper, achieved revenue of 3960.47 billion yuan [2]. - The main business segments include copper tubes (272.42 billion yuan, 61.25%), raw materials (102.42 billion yuan, 23.03%), copper rods (32.24 billion yuan, 7.25%), copper foils (20.05 billion yuan, 4.51%), and others [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 9.16 billion yuan, also ranking 8th in the industry, with the leading company, Zijin Mining, reporting a net profit of 457.01 billion yuan [2]. Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Hailiang's debt-to-asset ratio was 59.61%, down from 62.12% year-on-year, but still above the industry average of 54.12% [3]. - The gross profit margin was reported at 3.68%, an increase from 3.06% year-on-year, yet below the industry average of 10.36% [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 16.55% to 16,700, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 20.01% to 115,900 [5]. - The top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 33.6 million shares [5]. Business Highlights - Hailiang is actively expanding its overseas operations, with growth in copper processing revenue and sales outpacing domestic figures. The Texas plant is expected to reach a production capacity of 90,000 tons by the end of 2025 [5]. - New product developments are promising, with expectations for the copper foil business to break even by 2026 and a significant increase in demand for heat dissipation copper-based materials [5][6].

Core Insights - JinTian Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving operating income of 91.765 billion yuan and a net profit of 588 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 104.37% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit growth is attributed to its strategy of "dual upgrades in products and customers," leading to improved operational quality [1] - JinTian's revenue from overseas sales of copper products reached 999,200 tons in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.52% [2] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - JinTian Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of copper and copper alloy materials in China, focusing on providing comprehensive copper material solutions for strategic emerging industries such as 5G communication and new energy vehicles [1] - The company has established a strong customer base and technical reserves in the semiconductor field, with its high-conductivity copper products entering the supply chains of industry leaders [2] Group 3: International Expansion - JinTian is actively pursuing international expansion, overcoming challenges posed by uncertainties in the international trade environment [3] - The company has made significant progress in its overseas projects, including an 80,000-ton precision copper tube production project in Thailand and expanding business cooperation in Vietnam [3]

Core Insights - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (00358.HK) by 12.79 million shares on October 16, 2025, marking a decrease of 3.58% [1][2] - Over the past five trading days, there were three days of net reductions totaling 3.76 million shares, while in the last twenty trading days, there were ten days of net increases totaling 11.20 million shares [1][2] - As of now, southbound funds hold 345 million shares of Jiangxi Copper, accounting for 24.83% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] Trading Data Summary - On October 16, 2025, total holdings were 345 million shares, with a reduction of 12.79 million shares [2] - On October 15, 2025, total holdings were 357 million shares, with a reduction of 7.36 million shares [2] - On October 14, 2025, total holdings were 365 million shares, with a reduction of 3.68 million shares [2] - On October 13, 2025, total holdings were 368 million shares, with an increase of 14.98 million shares [2] - On October 3, 2025, total holdings were 353 million shares, with an increase of 5.10 million shares [2] Company Overview - Jiangxi Copper Company Limited primarily engages in the mining, smelting, and processing of copper and gold [2] - The company operates through two main segments: copper-related and gold-related industries, producing a range of products including cathode copper, gold, silver, sulfuric acid, copper rods, tubes, foils, selenium, tellurium, rhenium, and bismuth [2] - The products are mainly used in various industries such as electrical, electronics, light industry, machinery manufacturing, construction, transportation, and military [2]