Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown a strong performance since September, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and disruptions in overseas copper mining operations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market anticipates an 80% probability of a rate cut in October and a 74% probability in December, which may enhance the financial attributes of copper prices [2]. - Recent disruptions in overseas copper mining, such as the suspension of operations at Freeport's Grasberg mine due to a significant wet material surge, have impacted market sentiment [2]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate has decreased to -40.36 USD/ton as of late September, indicating deepening impacts from mining disruptions [2]. Group 2: Supply and Production - Domestic smelters are expected to conduct large-scale maintenance in October, affecting refined copper output by over 130,000 tons [3]. - The maintenance will lead to a temporary tightening of refined copper supply, coinciding with seasonal demand increases in downstream consumption [3]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The cable industry has shown a stable recovery, with significant investments in distribution network construction by State Grid and Southern Power Grid, which are expected to boost demand in the fourth quarter [4]. - The air conditioning sector is anticipated to gradually ramp up production, positively impacting the copper tube industry starting in October [4]. - The automotive sector, particularly driven by the growth of new energy vehicles, is expected to continue its upward trend in production and sales [4]. Group 4: Price Outlook - Given the interplay of various factors, the short-term potential for further increases in copper prices appears limited, with expectations of a high-level consolidation phase [4].

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货-沪铜2025年四季报 供需收紧，铜价震荡偏强 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年9月29日 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 2 ➢ 宏观方面：三季度美联储交易降息预期，市场有降息50bp的预期，且对美联储独立性存疑，美元指数连续下挫，铜价震荡偏强但降息靴子落地后不及市场预 期，沪铜盘面下行，回吐部分涨幅。232调查的铜关税落地，自8月1日起对进口铜半成品及铜含量高的衍生产品统一征收50%的关税，征收范围不包含铜矿及 精铜，此前美国铜虹吸效应逐渐结束。国内方面，反内卷举措推涨大宗商品行情，一揽子政策发布，加速上游产业端产能出清。 ➢ 供给方面：2025年2月以来，铜冶炼厂加工费TC/RC一直维持负值，且持续走弱，冶炼端的利润走弱也在侧面反映出了铜矿端的偏紧事实，据Mysteel数据显示，9月国内 冶炼厂计划产量为114.76万吨，10月预计产量112.35万吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hailiang Co., is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and international competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Global Strategy and Market Position - Hailiang Co. has established long-term stable business relationships with nearly 10,000 customers across over 130 countries and regions, leveraging its global production capacity and technological innovation [1][3]. - The company has become the largest and most competitive manufacturer of copper pipes and rods globally, with a strategic focus on global expansion through self-built and acquired production bases [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hailiang Co. achieved a total revenue of 444.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.11 billion yuan, up 15.03% [5][7]. - The company's overseas business revenue reached 186.37 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2%, contributing to 41.9% of total revenue [3][5]. Group 3: Research and Development - Hailiang Co. has invested a total of 35.51 billion yuan in research and development over the past four and a half years, with a focus on product and process innovation [6][7]. - As of June 2025, the company holds 915 patents, including 150 invention patents, demonstrating its commitment to technological advancement [7]. Group 4: Asset Growth - The total assets of Hailiang Co. increased from 261.2 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 473.8 billion yuan by June 2025, marking an increase of 212.6 billion yuan, or over 80% [1][6].

Group 1 - The stock price of Hailiang Co., Ltd. decreased by 2.01% on September 23, trading at 12.19 yuan per share with a total market capitalization of 27.665 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, Hailiang's stock price has increased by 15.25%, with a recent decline of 3.33% over the last five trading days [1] - The company has a main business revenue composition of 61.25% from copper pipes, 23.03% from raw materials, and smaller contributions from copper rods, foils, and other products [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, Hailiang Co., Ltd. reported a total revenue of 44.534 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.14% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 711 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.03% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.265 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 844 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Hailiang Co., Ltd. decreased by 16.55% to 16,700 [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 500 ETF, with the latter being a new shareholder [3] - Hailiang Co., Ltd. has been listed since January 16, 2008, and is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of copper-related products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd. has positioned its new energy business as a core growth engine, with rapid growth in demand for 5G communication PCB copper foil, achieving a 72.33% increase in copper foil sales in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: New Energy and Copper Foil Business - The company focuses on the new energy industry chain, particularly in lithium battery copper foil and electronic circuit copper foil, which have become key growth drivers [2] - In lithium battery copper foil, the company has achieved industry leadership in high-strength, ultra-thin, and safety-focused products, with new products like nickel-plated copper foil and porous copper foil ready for mass production [2] - In electronic circuit copper foil, the demand for high-end copper foil has surged due to the rapid development of 5G communication and AI, with sales of standard copper foil reaching 2,151 tons in the first half of 2025, showing significant year-on-year growth [3] Group 2: International Expansion and Production Capacity - Hailiang's Indonesian base has passed audits from several global key customers and has signed supply agreements with major battery and 3C digital clients, laying a solid foundation for future international development [3] - The Texas base has rapidly increased production capacity to 50,000 tons as of August 2025, with expectations to expand to 90,000 tons by the end of 2025, benefiting from a favorable policy environment due to tariffs on imported copper products [4] Group 3: Market Performance and Financials - The Southeast Asian market, particularly in Vietnam and Thailand, has shown strong performance, with revenue growth of 13% and 25% respectively in the first half of 2025, driven by rising demand in the air conditioning sector in India [5] - Overall, the company reported a revenue of 44.476 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.17%, with net profit rising by 15.03% [6] Group 4: Strategic Management and Future Outlook - The company adheres to a pricing model based on "sales determine production" and has implemented strict inventory management to mitigate copper price volatility [7] - Hailiang is becoming a leading player in the global copper processing and new materials sector, with strong growth potential in new energy, 5G communication, and AI computing, supported by international expansion and technological innovation [7]

Company Overview - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and was established on October 29, 2001. The company was listed on January 16, 2008. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of copper pipes, copper rods, copper fittings, copper-aluminum composite conductors, and aluminum profiles [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Hailiang Co. achieved a revenue of 44.534 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 711 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.03% [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 2.265 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 844 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - On September 15, Hailiang Co.'s stock price decreased by 2.04%, trading at 12.48 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 27.435 billion yuan. The stock has increased by 17.99% year-to-date, with a 3.48% rise over the last five trading days, a 6.02% decline over the last 20 days, and a 28.97% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) once this year, with the most recent appearance on August 4 [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Hailiang Co. was 16,700, a decrease of 16.55% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 20.01% to 115,906 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 23.7841 million shares, an increase of 2.3802 million shares from the previous period. Southern CSI 500 ETF is a new entrant in the top ten, holding 17.804 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company Jingyi Co., Ltd. has experienced significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 38.80% to 2.381 billion yuan, but its net profit has plummeted by 42.95% to 10.85 million yuan, indicating a "revenue without profit" situation that highlights its struggles in the copper processing sector amid intense competition and cost pressures [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue from 2021 H1 to 2025 H1 has shown volatility, with figures of 3.373 billion yuan, 2.622 billion yuan, 1.361 billion yuan, 1.715 billion yuan, and 2.381 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of 50.85%, -22.25%, -48.09%, 26.00%, and 38.80% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company has also declined for four consecutive periods, with values of 44 million yuan, 28 million yuan, 25 million yuan, 19 million yuan, and 11 million yuan, showing year-on-year changes of 289.77%, -35.86%, -13.27%, -22.33%, and -42.95% respectively [2]. Profitability Analysis - The company's profitability is notably low, with a gross margin of only 2.99% in the first half of 2025, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of just 0.46% [4][6]. - The core business of Jingyi Co., Ltd. is heavily focused on low-value-added copper pipe processing, which accounts for over 90% of its revenue, leading to a vicious cycle of "overcapacity—price wars—margin compression" [4][6]. Market Position and Challenges - The low technical barriers in copper pipe processing and insufficient product differentiation have resulted in strong bargaining power for customers, making it difficult for the company to escape the price pressures in the low-end market [6]. - The company lacks a portfolio of high-precision copper alloy and other high-end products, which further limits its ability to compete effectively [6]. Cash Flow Concerns - The company has reported negative net cash flow from operating activities for three consecutive years, with figures of -82 million yuan, -234 million yuan, and -203 million yuan for the first halves of 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is optimistic [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of tariffs on the copper and aluminum markets, indicating that the copper market is experiencing a "split" due to tariff policies, which could lead to a potential return of copper processing to the U.S. [18][31] - The aluminum market is facing tight supply conditions, with fluctuations in alumina prices significantly affecting profitability [49][50] - The report anticipates that the copper supply-demand gap will support long-term price stability, with projected deficits in the coming years [44][46] Summary by Sections Copper and Aluminum Price Trends - The report reviews the price trends of copper and aluminum, noting significant fluctuations influenced by tariff expectations and supply chain disruptions [12][15] - Copper prices have been affected by U.S. tariff announcements, leading to a drop in both LME and domestic copper prices [19][31] Tariff Impacts on Copper Market - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper products, which is expected to impact the domestic copper processing industry significantly [19][31] - The report suggests that the tariff policy may lead to a return of copper processing to the U.S., with potential increases in domestic processing costs [31] Supply Constraints in the Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing supply constraints, with alumina prices being a core factor affecting profitability [50][54] - The report notes that while there are disruptions in alumina supply from Guinea, overall imports have increased, indicating a gradual recovery [50][51] Long-term Supply-Demand Outlook for Copper - The report projects a supply-demand gap for copper, with deficits expected in 2025 and 2026, which could support higher price levels in the long term [44][46] - The global refined copper production is expected to increase, but the growth rate may be limited due to declining ore grades and production challenges [44][46]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jintian Co., Ltd. (601609.SH), primarily engages in non-ferrous metal processing, focusing on copper products and rare earth permanent magnet materials, with applications in various sectors including power, electronics, construction materials, air conditioning, and new energy vehicles [1] Summary by Category Company Overview - Jintian Co., Ltd. specializes in non-ferrous metal processing, with major products including copper products and rare earth permanent magnet materials [1] - The company's products are utilized in multiple industries such as power, electronics, construction materials, air conditioning, and new energy vehicles [1] Product Performance - Copper products, due to their electrical and thermal conductivity, are used in chip interconnection and heat dissipation materials [1] - From January to July 2025, the sales proportion of copper busbars, copper pipes, and copper strips in the computing power sector is less than 2%, with the sales proportion in the heat dissipation segment being less than 1% [1] - The short-term impact on the company's performance from these sales figures is not significant [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility, with contrasting trends between international and domestic prices, highlighting underlying economic concerns and supply-demand dynamics [2][4][5]. Group 1: International Market Dynamics - LME copper price increased slightly by $5, reaching $9,771 per ton, which is seen as inadequate given global economic recovery expectations [2]. - The strong performance of the US dollar and rising PPI in the US have negatively impacted copper prices, leading to investor hesitation [7]. Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic copper prices in Guangdong have sharply declined, with 1 copper closing at 79,010 yuan per ton, a drop of 380 yuan in a single day [2][4]. - The Jiangsu market also faced a decline, with 1 copper price falling to 79,300 yuan per ton, down 300 yuan [4]. - The price difference between Guangdong and Jiangsu has widened to 290 yuan, indicating regional market disparities influenced by logistics and demand [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Weak demand from the construction and real estate sectors is a major factor contributing to the overall weakness in copper prices [7]. - Increased inventory of imported copper materials in Guangdong has reached 32,000 tons, leading buyers to push for lower prices [9]. - The market is witnessing a shift in product dynamics, with copper pipe prices remaining stable at around 41,100 yuan per ton, while lower-priced alternatives are gaining market share [9]. Group 4: Futures Market Insights - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contracts also saw declines, with the main contract dropping by 140 yuan per ton to 78,980 yuan [7]. - Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic data and industry trends, remaining cautious in their trading strategies [7].