关税风云下的铜铝 五矿证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：王小芃 登记编码：S0950523050002 邮箱：wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-61102510 证券研究报告|行业跟踪 2025/08/21 | 有色金属行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 分析师：于柏寒 登记编码：S0950523120002 邮箱：yubaihan@wkzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-61102510 Contents 目录 01 铜铝价格走势复盘 03 供应端偏紧的铝市场 04 铜铝价格展望总结 02 关税风云下"割裂"的铜市 场 今年铜铝在交易什么？ 复盘：关税预期扰动今年铜价 图表1：2025年初至今的铜价走势复盘：关税、冶炼厂减产成为主线 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 2025-01-08 2025-01-10 2025-01-12 2025-01-14 2025-01-16 2025-01-18 2025-01-20 2025-01-22 2025- ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jintian Co., Ltd. (601609.SH), primarily engages in non-ferrous metal processing, focusing on copper products and rare earth permanent magnet materials, with applications in various sectors including power, electronics, construction materials, air conditioning, and new energy vehicles [1] Summary by Category Company Overview - Jintian Co., Ltd. specializes in non-ferrous metal processing, with major products including copper products and rare earth permanent magnet materials [1] - The company's products are utilized in multiple industries such as power, electronics, construction materials, air conditioning, and new energy vehicles [1] Product Performance - Copper products, due to their electrical and thermal conductivity, are used in chip interconnection and heat dissipation materials [1] - From January to July 2025, the sales proportion of copper busbars, copper pipes, and copper strips in the computing power sector is less than 2%, with the sales proportion in the heat dissipation segment being less than 1% [1] - The short-term impact on the company's performance from these sales figures is not significant [1]

铜价迷局：内外冰火两重天，谁在操纵这出大戏？ 而大洋彼岸的美联储也来"添乱"。美国PPI（生产者物价指数）增幅创下新高，使得市场对美联储降息 的预期彻底破灭。美元的强势上涨，进一步打压了铜价，使得投资者们更加犹豫不决。 长江现货市场亦未能幸免。1号铜价格同样遭遇滑铁卢，跌至79300元/吨，单日跌幅也达到了300元。作 为国内铜市场的风向标，长江现货市场的下跌，无疑给市场参与者敲响了警钟。相比之下，A00铝价格 却表现得异常坚挺，稳坐20710元/吨的宝座，仿佛置身事外。 广东与长江之间的区域价差也进一步扩大至290元，这一现象背后，隐藏着更为复杂的市场逻辑。物流 成本的差异、客户结构的差异，以及广东地区下游企业订单量的萎缩，都可能是造成区域分化的原因。 更令人担忧的是，广东地区下游企业——那些依赖铜管、铜线生存的小型工厂——采购意愿大幅降低， 无疑给当地铜市场蒙上了一层阴影。 再将视线拉回期货市场。上海期货交易所的铜主力合约也未能幸免于难。沪铜2510合约价格下跌140元/ 吨，收于78980元/吨；沪铜2511合约更是下跌160元/吨，报收78970元/吨。投资者们如履薄冰，紧盯着 宏观数据和行业动态，却 ...

公司主要从事有色金属加工业务，主要产品包括铜产品和稀土永磁材料两大类。产品应用于电力、电 子、建筑材料、空调家电、新能源汽车等领域。因铜具有导电性、导热性，相关铜加工产品可以作为芯 片互联、散热方面的材料，2025年1-7月，公司铜排、铜管、铜带等产品在算力领域产品销量占比不足 2%，其中算力散热领域产品销量占比不足1%，短期对公司业绩不形成重大影响。请投资者注意投资风 险。 智通财经APP讯，金田股份(601609.SH)发布风险提示公告称，公司关注到媒体有关于公司铜加工材料 在芯片算力领域应用的相关报道。经核实，相关媒体报道主要来源于公司在以往定期报告中的披露信息 以及E互动的回复，其中上证e互动的回复内容引用于2024年年度报告内容。为便于广大投资者更全面 深入地了解相关情况，公司现就具体情况做如下说明： ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jintian Co., Ltd. (601609.SH), has issued a risk warning regarding media reports about its copper processing materials being used in the chip computing power sector, clarifying that the reports are based on previously disclosed information and responses from the company [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jintian Co., Ltd. primarily engages in non-ferrous metal processing, with main products including copper products and rare earth permanent magnet materials [1] - The company's products are utilized in various sectors such as electricity, electronics, construction materials, air conditioning appliances, and new energy vehicles [1] Group 2: Product Application in Chip Sector - Due to copper's conductivity and thermal conductivity, related copper processing products can serve as materials for chip interconnection and heat dissipation [1] - From January to July 2025, the sales proportion of the company's copper busbars, copper pipes, and copper strips in the computing power sector was less than 2%, with the sales proportion in the heat dissipation area being less than 1% [1] - The short-term impact on the company's performance from this sector is not significant [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is expected to continue the pattern of being stronger in the domestic market and weaker in the international market, as well as being weaker in the near - term and stronger in the far - term. Currently, the macro - environment is favorable for copper prices, while the industrial side shows a neutral - to - bearish trend [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Impact of US Tariff Policy - On July 30, the US President announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1. The New York copper price dropped by over 18% on the same day, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper quickly narrowed to the pre - tariff - expectation level. Copper ores and cathode copper were exempted from the tariff, which is beyond market expectations. This exemption is bullish for copper prices from a global supply - demand perspective. After the spread convergence, US copper imports may decline in the second half of the year, increasing non - US copper supply and being bearish for LME and SHFE copper [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The current high global market risk appetite and the good performance of domestic and foreign equity markets are bullish for copper prices. The unexpectedly weak US non - farm data and lower - than - expected non - manufacturing PMI at the beginning of the month increased the expectation of a US economic slowdown and Fed rate - cut expectations, causing the US dollar index to fall. The market expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year, with a cumulative cut of 75 basis points [2]. - There is a risk of a macro - environment shift. If the US economy continues to weaken, copper prices will be under pressure; if the US economy stabilizes and the Fed cuts rates, it will be bullish for copper prices [3]. Domestic Market Conditions - In July, the domestic macro - environment was positive. With the "anti - involution" policy, domestic - priced commodities generally rose. The strong trend continued in late July but cooled down at the end of the month, and commodities entered an adjustment phase. The current spot industry is in the off - season, with limited impact on copper prices. Supported by the macro - environment, far - month copper contracts are stronger than near - month contracts. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory de - stocking has slowed down, while overseas copper inventory has been accumulating at a high level, resulting in the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international copper prices. Domestic upstream smelters maintain high production, and refined copper imports are expected to increase, putting pressure on the domestic industry [3]. Trade Agreement and Its Impact - In August, the new US tariff policy was implemented, and the US reached new trade agreements with major global economies, possibly extending the current tariff policy for 90 days. This reduces global economic uncertainty and is expected to keep the market risk - appetite high, which is bullish for copper prices [3]. - The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, involving a 90 - day tariff extension and non - tariff measure adjustment, indicates an improvement in Sino - US trade relations and is also bullish for copper prices [4].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Headwinds - The market is increasingly concerned about "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, with the services PMI nearing the threshold and the price index soaring to 69.9%, a three-year high [2] - Investors are selling industrial metals like copper in favor of safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds due to fears of stagnant growth and high inflation [2] Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The tariff policy from the Trump administration has targeted the copper supply chain, imposing a 50% tax on semi-finished products like copper cables while exempting refined copper [3] - This has led U.S. wire importers to cancel orders and forced Chinese copper processing companies to relocate to Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Uncertainty - The sudden announcement of changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership has raised concerns about potential delays in interest rate cuts, prompting copper bulls to exit the market [4] - This uncertainty has contributed to increased market volatility and further depressed copper prices [4] Group 4: Inventory Dynamics - LME copper inventories surged by 14,275 tons (10.23%) on August 5, reaching a five-month high, primarily due to U.S. traders selling off during the tariff exemption window [7] - In contrast, the Chinese market is experiencing a shortage of copper, with significant price discrepancies between regions, indicating an underlying inventory crisis [7] Group 5: Industry Chain Challenges - Copper concentrate processing fees have dropped to -42.09 USD/ton, resulting in losses for smelters [8] - The cost of production for Chilean copper has risen to 2.10 USD/pound, while smelters are struggling to maintain profitability [8] Group 6: Market Reactions - On August 6, stocks of copper companies like Tongling Nonferrous and Jiangxi Copper saw significant price increases, driven by speculation around policy expectations [9] - However, futures markets remain focused on real inventory levels and weak consumption, leading to narrow trading ranges for copper contracts [9] Group 7: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the demand for copper driven by electrification remains strong, with Tesla's Shanghai factory increasing copper cable orders by 35% year-on-year [10] - Strategic stockpiling activities by various entities, including the Chinese state reserves and U.S. military contractors, are also noteworthy [10] Group 8: Conclusion - The short-term fluctuations in copper prices are influenced by a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, tariff policies, supply chain dynamics, and market expectations [12] - The future trajectory of copper prices will depend on the resolution of these interrelated factors [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weakening US employment market, the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is rising. However, the traditional consumption off - season in China suppresses downstream demand, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad fluctuates. The Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of different copper markets [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 78,580, up 250 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,792 lots, a decrease of 19,597 lots; the open interest was 159,866 lots, a decrease of 3,692 lots; the inventory was 18,767 tons, a decrease of 1,581 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 78,615, up 195 from the previous day [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on August 5, 2025, was 9,634.5, down 74 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 153,850 tons. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.32, down 14.59; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 142.61, down 3.38. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.1561, up 0.09 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on August 5, 2025, was 4.3795, down 0.06. The total inventory weight was 262,190, an increase of 2,509 [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Project Progress**: Zangge Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II mining and beneficiation expansion project is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025. After the project is put into operation, the annual output of copper ore of Julong Copper will be about 300,000 - 350,000 tons, which is expected to significantly increase the company's performance [2]. - **Production Interruption**: Codelco, the world's largest copper miner, has stopped the mining operation of its flagship El Teniente copper mine due to an accident and postponed the release of its quarterly results. The impact on production is unknown [2]. - **Tariff Impact**: Affected by the US tariff on copper semi - finished products, some domestic copper processing exports to the US are under pressure. The comprehensive tariff of copper tubes exported to the US has reached 97%, and domestic copper tube enterprises' export orders are directly affected [2]. - **Corporate Strategy Adjustment**: Japan's Mitsubishi Materials is considering partially shutting down its smelter and reducing the processing volume of copper concentrate due to the continuous decline of copper concentrate processing and smelting fees (TC/RCs) [2]. 3.3 Industry Operation - **Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) has increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has increased. The raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory has increased. The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wires have increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased. The capacity utilization rate and production volume of China's copper strips have increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased. The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have remained unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: In August, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper processing enterprises may decline month - on - month. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods and copper strips and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cable, copper enameled wires, copper foils, and copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [2].

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term market sentiment for buying copper is still strong. Although copper is in the inventory accumulation period, the support at 77,000 is expected to be strong. However, the short - term spot market's support for copper prices is weak due to inventory accumulation pressure at home and abroad [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly, closing at 78,580, and continued to run below the trend line. Spot copper rose 195 to 78,615, and the premium dropped 50 to 130. It is expected that the premium will continue to decline tomorrow. The premium of imported copper continued to be weak, with a rising trend in offers but large differences between buyers and sellers, and few transactions in the market. LME copper inventory increased by 14,275 to 153,850 tons, and the 0 - 3C structure expanded to 52.73. The domestic spot market has limited acceptance of high - priced copper, and the inventory accumulation pressure at home and abroad weakens the support of the short - term spot market for copper prices [11]. 2. Industry News - Some domestic copper processing material export orders to the US are under pressure due to the US tariff increase on copper semi - finished products. A copper tube enterprise's goods arriving in the US on August 5 were additionally taxed 50%, and the comprehensive tariff for copper tube exports to the US reached 97%. High tariffs have led to a suspension of subsequent un - signed orders from US customers [12]. - Codelco must submit four reports regarding the El Teniente copper mine collapse incident [12]. - Baiyin Nonferrous has achieved cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement. As of the end of July, the electrolysis workshop of its copper business has produced 231,000 tons of cathode copper, with the A - grade copper grade rate reaching 96.31% [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2][6]. Core Views - The recent adjustment in the US copper tariff policy is expected to benefit the company directly, as it has established copper processing capacity in the US [5][6]. - The exclusion of copper raw materials from the tariff will allow the company to enhance its profitability through local production, as the prices of copper processing products may rise due to supply constraints [5][6]. - The company is projected to increase its North American production capacity, with an expected gradual ramp-up from the second half of 2025 to 2026 [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company currently has 30,000 tons of production capacity in operation, with an additional 60,000 tons under construction, representing an investment of 1.15 billion yuan, of which 1.09 billion yuan has been completed [5][7]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.44 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, and 3.21 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x, 9x, and 7.6x [5][7]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 100.70 billion yuan, 118.69 billion yuan, and 137.33 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 15.23%, 17.86%, and 15.71% [7][9]. Comparable Company Analysis - The company is compared with peers such as Bowei Alloys, Jintian Copper, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, with the average P/E ratio for these companies being 17.2x for 2023 [8]. - The company's current P/E ratio is 18.4x for 2023, indicating a potential undervaluation given its market position as a leading copper processing enterprise [6][8].