中信建投研报指出：近期硅料、白银价格上涨导致光伏电池、组件企业利润承压加剧，而白银从2019年 以来便出现供需缺口并一直延续至今，考虑白银供给刚性+需要使用白银的新兴应用接力增长，预计白 银供需长期紧平衡。为控制成本，降低银耗成为光伏电池、组件企业的当务之急，而铜是最理想的替代 材料，只需解决铜易氧化、易扩散问题，对此PCB、MLCC、半导体行业已经有丰富的经验可供光伏参 考。目前银包铜、电镀铜方案在光伏进展相对较快，纯铜浆是终极目标但还有较多问题需要解决。假设 2026-2027年银包铜、铜浆渗透率分别来到17.7%、43%，对应两种浆料产量分别为813、2188吨，将为 浆料企业、金属粉体企业带来较大业绩弹性。 ...

1月22日，光伏50ETF（159864）涨超1.3%，产业趋势引关注。 中信建投指出，近期硅料、白银价格上涨导致光伏电池、组件企业利润承压加剧，白银在组件成本中占 比已达19.3%，成为第一大成本。2019年以来白银持续出现供需缺口，考虑供给刚性及新兴应用增长， 预计其供需将长期紧平衡。为控制成本，降低银耗成为光伏企业的当务之急，铜是最理想的替代材料。 借鉴PCB、MLCC、半导体行业经验，光伏目前主要通过银包铜、电镀铜、纯铜浆三种方式推动铜渗透 率提升。目前银包铜、电镀铜进展相对较快，其中银包铜资本开支压力较小，若验证顺利有望快速放 量；纯铜浆是终极目标但尚有许多问题待解决。假设2026~2027年银包铜、铜浆渗透率分别达到17.7% 和43%，对应浆料需求量将显著增长。 光伏50ETF（159864）跟踪的是光伏产业指数（931151），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及硅料、硅片、 电池片、组件制造以及电站运营等光伏产业链上下游业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映中国光 伏行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现，具有较高的成长性和波动性特征。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price fluctuations highlighting both short-term risks and long-term bullish fundamentals [2][5]. Short-term Risks - The first risk is tax-driven selling, as investors holding substantial unrealized gains may sell before year-end to benefit from long-term capital gains tax rates, leading to potential profit-taking in early January [8]. - The second risk involves a strengthening dollar, driven by strong GDP growth data, which typically exerts pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like silver [9]. - The third risk is the increase in margin requirements announced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which could reduce leverage and speculative demand, although current margin levels are still lower than those seen during the 2011 silver price crash [10][11]. - The fourth risk is technical selling due to silver being perceived as "overbought," although this assessment is challenged by the underlying demand from the solar industry [12]. - The fifth risk is the potential for copper to replace silver in industrial applications, particularly in solar manufacturing, although this transition would take several years [14]. Market Dynamics - A technical pressure is anticipated from the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may force passive funds to sell approximately 9% of their silver futures positions, coinciding with the tax-driven selling window [17]. Long-term Fundamentals - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for silver remains strong, supported by structural supply-demand imbalances. Current spot prices in markets like Dubai and Shanghai are significantly higher than COMEX futures prices, indicating tightness in the physical market [19]. - Investment demand is also robust, with speculative net long positions in silver being lower than in gold, suggesting room for price increases. Silver ETFs are seeing renewed inflows, indicating a shift towards silver as a monetary asset [21]. - The solar industry is projected to drive substantial increases in silver demand, with expectations of 290 million ounces in 2025 and 450 million ounces by 2030, marking a significant change in the market dynamics after years of stagnant demand [21][24].