1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the easing of liquidity will open up upward space for copper prices. Coupled with the tight supply of copper mines, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips. The upper level should pay attention to the pressure at the 81,000 mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In August, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. On August 1st, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 77,960 yuan/ton, and on August 25th, the highest price reached 79,830 yuan/ton. The market's focus shifted to the time and rhythm of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The tight raw material supply continued, and the downstream's acceptance of high prices was insufficient, limiting the upward space [10]. 3.2 Macro - aspect - **Overseas**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The probability of a rate cut is high, and it is expected to cut rates twice this year. The employment data in July was not as expected, but the labor market remained relatively stable. The S&P and Fitch affirmed the US sovereign credit rating. The US manufacturing and service PMI in August improved. The eurozone's economic data improved significantly, and the market's expectation of the ECB's rate cut remained stable [8][15][17]. - **Domestic**: The domestic economy is generally stable. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The growth rate of domestic economic data in July and August slowed down, and it is expected that there will be more policy support in the second half of the year [23]. 3.3 Fundamental - aspect - **Supply**: - In July, China's copper ore imports increased, with a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded. However, the tight supply situation of copper mines has not improved significantly, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrates has declined slightly [27][30]. - In July, China's refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%, but a month - on - month decrease. In August, the number of smelters reducing production increased due to the tight supply of copper concentrates and cold materials [37]. - **Inventory**: Currently, copper inventories are relatively high. As of August 28th, the COMEX copper inventory was 275,200 tons, the bonded - area copper inventory was 83,300 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory was 81,700 tons. With the arrival of the peak season from September to October, there may be a possibility of destocking [33]. - **Demand**: - In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73%, mainly driven by strong domestic demand [39]. - From January to July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 18.2% year - on - year. The installed capacity of new energy sources such as solar and wind power increased rapidly, and the investment in power grid projects increased by 12.5% year - on - year [43]. - In July, the production and sales of automobiles in China increased year - on - year. The production of new energy vehicles in July was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The automobile industry is expected to continue to drive copper consumption [47]. - In July, the production of household refrigerators and air conditioners in China decreased month - on - month. The production of refrigerators decreased due to the end of promotional activities and inventory pressure, and the production of air conditioners decreased due to the return to rationality of the market and the suppression of export demand by US tariffs [51].

Report Overview - The report is a copper monthly report for August 2025, released by AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating Report's Core View - In September, it is recommended to buy on dips. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, which will loosen liquidity and open up upward space for copper prices. Coupled with the tight supply of copper mines and the traditional peak consumption season from September to October, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips, with attention paid to the pressure at the 81,000 yuan mark [6][7] Summaries by Directory 1. Market Outlook - In September, it is recommended to buy on dips. The overseas focus is on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, with a high probability of a rate cut. If the rate cut is greater than or equal to 25bps, it is considered bullish; less than 25bps is neutral. The Q3 rate cuts will continue to open up space, and two rate cuts are still expected this year, which will relieve the upward pressure on metals. The euro - zone economic data has improved significantly, and the sustainability of the improvement should be monitored. The domestic economy is generally stable, with the RMB exchange rate strengthening. There is still a large policy space in the fourth quarter, and there is a possibility of further rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts. The tight supply of copper mines this year is stronger than last year, and the traditional peak consumption season from September to October also supports copper prices. Copper prices may fluctuate strongly, and the operation strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7] 2. Market Review - In August, copper prices maintained a high - level consolidation. On August 1, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 77,960 yuan/ton, and on August 25, the highest price reached 79,830 yuan/ton. The market's focus shifted to the Fed's rate - cut time and rhythm. On the fundamental side, the raw - material supply remained tight. After the implementation of the 232 reciprocal tariffs, the inventory in non - US regions increased slightly, but the inventory - building speed was slow. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited, which restricted the upward space [9][10] 3. Macroeconomic Aspect US - In July, the non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the year - on - year increase in hourly wages rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. The employment rate remained relatively low, and the labor market was relatively stable. Standard & Poor's and Fitch confirmed the US sovereign credit ratings. The preliminary values of the US manufacturing and service PMIs in August were higher than expected. The CPI, core CPI, and PPI in July increased year - on - year. The durable - goods orders decreased month - on - month. After Fed Chairman Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [14] Euro - zone - The German and French manufacturing PMIs improved significantly in August. The euro - zone's August PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. The second - quarter GDP annual rate was in line with expectations. The ECB President said that the current tariff situation was better than the worst - case scenario. The market's expectation of an ECB rate cut this year remained stable [16] China - In July, the added value of large - scale industries, social - consumption retail sales, and other economic data showed certain trends. The growth rate of economic data from July to August faced greater pressure, and more policy support was expected. The RMB exchange rate was relatively stable, and once it strengthened, there would be more space for fiscal and monetary policies. It is expected that there will still be a large policy space in the fourth quarter, and there is a possibility of rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts [21][26] 4. Fundamental Aspect Supply - In July, China's copper - ore imports increased. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded. The spot processing fee for copper concentrates showed a bottom - rebound trend, but the overall rebound was limited, and the tight supply situation remained. Due to the impact of Freeport Indonesia's copper - concentrate exports, the processing fee decreased slightly. Codelco lowered its annual copper - output target [28][32] Inventory - Global copper inventory was affected by tariffs and the domestic peak season. US copper inventory reached a multi - year high, and LME copper inventory increased significantly in July - August. The inventory in bonded areas and the SHFE remained stable. Currently, copper inventory is high, and there may be a possibility of inventory reduction during the peak season from September to October [35] Production - In July, China's refined - copper production decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the tight supply of cold materials. In August, the number of smelters reducing production due to supply shortages increased. The import volume of refined copper decreased slightly month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level this year [40] Demand - **Waste copper**: In July, China's waste - copper imports increased more than expected, mainly driven by strong domestic demand [42] - **New energy**: As of the end of July, the installed capacity of new energy power generation increased significantly year - on - year. The investment in power grids increased, which was conducive to copper consumption [47] - **Real estate**: The real - estate market was still weak, but policies in Beijing and Shanghai were optimized, and the release of the "Opinions on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was expected to accelerate urban renewal [51] - **Automobile**: In July, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. The production of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. The full - year sales of automobiles are expected to increase, which will drive copper consumption [55] - **Home appliances**: In July, the production of refrigerators and air - conditioners decreased month - on - month. The production of refrigerators decreased due to the release of pre - demand, and the production of air - conditioners decreased due to the end of promotions and US tariffs [57]