Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core View - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to supply disturbances. The attack on the core smelter of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in Abu Dhabi due to the Middle - East conflict has worsened the already tight supply situation, and the already high aluminum prices may rise again [2]. - Alumina: It is expected to fluctuate within a range. - Cast aluminum alloy: It will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,935, up 210 from T - 1; the LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 3,285, up 30 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract and LME Aluminum 3M have changed to different extents compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,930, down 1 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Alumina main contract have also changed compared with previous periods [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 22,960, up 140 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of the aluminum alloy main contract have changed compared with previous periods [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 1371,000 tons, with no change from T - 1. The LME aluminum ingot inventory is 420,900 tons, down 0.22 from T - 1. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss is 7,332.37, up 278.34 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina is 2,776, up 2 from T - 1. The alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival - at - port price (in US dollars per ton) is 356, with no change from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 is 23,800, up 100 from T - 1. The total inventory of the three places is 31,275, with no change from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The price of Australian imported bauxite (Al:48 - 50%, Si:8 - 10%) is 62 US dollars per ton, up 2 from T - 1. The price of Indonesian imported bauxite (Al:45 - 47%, Si:4 - 6%) is 44 US dollars per ton, with no change from T - 1 [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,295, with no change from T - 1 [1]. Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend. - Alumina trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend. - Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [2].

▍Mozal停产概率维持高位，或将成为铝行业Cobre Panama时刻。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：敖翀 拜俊飞 陈剑凡 10月21日，世纪铝业公告其Grundartangi铝冶炼厂故障减产，涉及产能20万吨。此前，8月，南拓32公告 其Mozal铝冶炼厂由于电力供应问题或于2026年3月停产保养，涉及产能50万吨；我们认为Mozal停产概 率较高，或有成为铝行业Cobre Panama时刻的潜力。供给约束持续强化，扰动抬头苗头初现，我们持续 看好铝板块盈利估值齐升行情。 ▍事件：世纪铝业旗下Grundartangi铝厂故障减产。 10月21日，世纪铝业公告其因电气设备故障，暂停了位于冰岛Grundartangi铝冶炼厂两条电解槽生产线 中的一条。此次停产使该冶炼厂的产量减少约三分之二。世纪铝业目前正在进行影响评估，并制定获取 替换设备和恢复全面生产的时间表，计划在11月6日举行的季度财报电话会议上提供有关最新信息。 Grundartangi铝冶炼厂2024年产量为30.8万吨，本次影响产能约20万吨/年，约占全球产能的0.3%。 ▍此前Mozal宣布计划停产维修，铝行业供给扰动苗条已现。 8 ...

中信证券指出，Grundartangi铝冶炼厂2024年产量为30.8万吨，本次影响产能约20万吨/年，约占全球产 能的0.3%。此前，8月，南拓32公告其Mozal铝冶炼厂由于电力供应问题或于2026年3月停产保养，涉及 产能50万吨。Mozal停产概率较高，或有成为铝行业Cobre Panama时刻的潜力。供给约束持续强化，扰 动抬头苗头初现，持续看好铝板块盈利估值齐升行情。 据市场消息，铝生产商世纪铝业近日公告其因电气设备故障，暂停了位于冰岛Grundartangi铝冶炼厂两 条电解槽生产线中的一条。此次停产使该冶炼厂的产量减少约三分之二。世纪铝业目前正在进行影响评 估，并制定获取替换设备和恢复全面生产的时间表，计划在11月6日举行的季度财报电话会议上提供有 关最新信息。 ...