Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the aluminum industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum processing material production in China is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% from 2020 to 2024, indicating stable growth [1][2]. - Despite a 6% drag on aluminum demand from the real estate sector, the production of industrial aluminum profiles has historically surpassed that of construction aluminum profiles for the first time, compensating for the decline in construction aluminum [1][11]. - The outlook for 2025 suggests that while the growth rate of new energy vehicles may slow and the photovoltaic sector may not see additional aluminum demand, investment in the power sector is expected to maintain high growth, benefiting the home appliance sector [1][11]. - 2025 is projected to be the peak year for China's primary aluminum supply, with supply growth expected to be less than 2%, likely leading to a supply-demand gap in the aluminum industry, which may sustain or even create new highs in aluminum prices and smelting profits [1][11]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Production Trends - In 2024, China's aluminum processing material production is projected to reach 49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with significant contributions from aluminum plates, foils, and wires [2]. - From 2020 to 2024, the total increase in aluminum production is expected to be 6.9 million tons, with aluminum plates contributing 42%, aluminum extrusions 28%, and aluminum foils 18% [2]. Industrial Aluminum Profiles - The production of industrial aluminum profiles is expected to reach 11.7 million tons in 2024, marking a 23% year-on-year increase, which compensates for the decline in construction aluminum profiles [6][11]. - The growth in industrial aluminum profiles is primarily driven by the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors, with photovoltaic aluminum profiles contributing 40% to the increase [5][11]. Aluminum Plates and Foils - The production of aluminum plates is expected to increase by 2.9 million tons from 2020 to 2024, with the fastest growth seen in automotive body panels, which have a CAGR of 38% [7][11]. - The production of battery foils and air conditioning foils has shown significant growth, with battery aluminum foil production expected to have a CAGR of 59% from 2020 to 2024 [14].