瑞银发布研究报告指出，中国宏桥(01378)作为行业龙头，在供应受限、价格向好的环境下有望持续受 益。基于更高的铝价预测，瑞银将宏桥的2026年预测净利润上调11%，2027年预测净利润上调16%。该 行重申中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，并将目标价从28港元上调至38.6港元。 基于供需偏紧的核心判断，瑞银上调了今明两年铝价预期：2026年中国铝价预测上调5%至22000元/ 吨，2027年上调7%至23000元/吨；伦敦金属交易所铝价预测也被上调约15%，主要得益于铜价上涨催生 的铝替代需求增长。 供应端受限成关键逻辑，供需缺口持续扩大 瑞银全球金属与矿业团队测算，2026至2027年全球原铝需求年增速将维持4%，而供应端增速仅 1%-2%，市场或陷入短缺格局，进而带动显性库存回落，为铝价提供强劲支撑。 具体来看，国内铝业产能受政策严格管控，上限锁定在4520万吨/年，当前产能利用率已超98%，接近 政策红线。新增产能方面，2026年仅有天山铝业（002532）20万吨/年扩建项目及扎鲁特旗35万吨/年新 建项目计划投产，2027年则无新增产能规划。海外市场方面，主要供应增量集中于印度尼西亚，但受部 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研究报告指出，中国宏桥(01378)作为行业龙头，在供应受限、价格向好的 环境下有望持续受益。基于更高的铝价预测，瑞银将宏桥的2026年预测净利润上调11%，2027年预测净 利润上调16%。该行重申中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，并将目标价从28港元上调至38.6港元。 基于供需偏紧的核心判断，瑞银上调了今明两年铝价预期：2026年中国铝价预测上调5%至22000元/ 吨，2027年上调7%至23000元/吨；伦敦金属交易所铝价预测也被上调约15%，主要得益于铜价上涨催生 的铝替代需求增长。 具体来看，国内铝业产能受政策严格管控，上限锁定在4520万吨/年，当前产能利用率已超98%，接近 政策红线。新增产能方面，2026年仅有天山铝业20万吨/年扩建项目及扎鲁特旗35万吨/年新建项目计划 投产，2027年则无新增产能规划。海外市场方面，主要供应增量集中于印度尼西亚，但受部分项目可能 减产的影响，2026-2027年全球原铝供应年增长率预计仅为1%-2%。同期全球铝需求将预期保持4%的年 增长率，全球铝市供需缺口有望进一步扩大。 铝价预测同步上调，铜价上涨促使铝替代需求 供应端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the aluminum industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum processing material production in China is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% from 2020 to 2024, indicating stable growth [1][2]. - Despite a 6% drag on aluminum demand from the real estate sector, the production of industrial aluminum profiles has historically surpassed that of construction aluminum profiles for the first time, compensating for the decline in construction aluminum [1][11]. - The outlook for 2025 suggests that while the growth rate of new energy vehicles may slow and the photovoltaic sector may not see additional aluminum demand, investment in the power sector is expected to maintain high growth, benefiting the home appliance sector [1][11]. - 2025 is projected to be the peak year for China's primary aluminum supply, with supply growth expected to be less than 2%, likely leading to a supply-demand gap in the aluminum industry, which may sustain or even create new highs in aluminum prices and smelting profits [1][11]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Production Trends - In 2024, China's aluminum processing material production is projected to reach 49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with significant contributions from aluminum plates, foils, and wires [2]. - From 2020 to 2024, the total increase in aluminum production is expected to be 6.9 million tons, with aluminum plates contributing 42%, aluminum extrusions 28%, and aluminum foils 18% [2]. Industrial Aluminum Profiles - The production of industrial aluminum profiles is expected to reach 11.7 million tons in 2024, marking a 23% year-on-year increase, which compensates for the decline in construction aluminum profiles [6][11]. - The growth in industrial aluminum profiles is primarily driven by the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors, with photovoltaic aluminum profiles contributing 40% to the increase [5][11]. Aluminum Plates and Foils - The production of aluminum plates is expected to increase by 2.9 million tons from 2020 to 2024, with the fastest growth seen in automotive body panels, which have a CAGR of 38% [7][11]. - The production of battery foils and air conditioning foils has shown significant growth, with battery aluminum foil production expected to have a CAGR of 59% from 2020 to 2024 [14].