丸红称，预计日本明年第一季度的铝升水料为每吨140-203美元，第二季度料为每吨125-200美元，第三 和第四季度料为每吨85-175美元。 丸红金属部门总经理Eisuke Akasaka表示："由于供应担忧和关税，欧洲和美国的铝升水正在飙升，引发 了人们对亚洲铝供应流入量减少的担忧，并在最近几周推升日本现货铝升水。"他指出，目前日本现货 铝升水已攀升至约每吨140美元。 他称，冰岛一家冶炼厂停产，对South32的莫桑比克铝冶炼厂可能封存的预期，以及在欧盟碳边境调整 机制下加征新碳税之前提前装载，提升欧洲铝升水。由于高额的进口关税，美国铝升水也已经飙升。 12月10日（周三），日本最大的铝贸易商--丸红株式会社（Marubeni）周三表示，预计2026年日本进口 商支付的进口铝升水料处于每吨85-203美元，因为海外铝升水上涨导致流入亚洲地区的铝供应减少，这 导致供应收紧。 需求疲软和供应充足已将今年第四季度的日本铝升水推低至每吨86美元，较第三季度下降20%，而第一 季度为每吨228美元。 日本是亚洲重要的铝进口国，该国进口商与海外供应商达成的季度铝升水通常被视为区域铝升水的基 准。 行业人士周三称，海 ...

12月10日(周三)，行业人士周三称，海外铝供应商对明年第一季度发往日本的铝报价为每吨较LME现货 价格升水190-203美元，较今年第四季度水平上调121%-136%。 今年第四季度，日本铝升水为每吨86美元， 较第三季度下降20%。 日本是亚洲重要的铝进口国，该国进口商与海外供应商达成的季度铝升水通常被视为区域铝升水的基 准。 ...

11月10日（周一），受高额关税和全球供应吃紧影响，美国现货市场上铝升水创下纪录新高。 咨询公司Harbor Aluminum表示，关税飙升还归因于美国铝库存的下降，以及人们"强烈认为"关税将是 永久性的，在特朗普于10月叫停和邻国加拿大的贸易谈判后，加拿大将不会获得任何豁免。 贸易数据监测（Trade Data Monitor）的数据显示，去年，美国自加拿大进口铝超过270万吨，占总进口 量的70%。 美国铝贸易商PerenniAL的Dmitri Ceres表示："原本对于达成协议持乐观态度的人，现在也放弃了他们 的立场。" 美国消费者在采购铝方面也面临激烈竞争。 PanmureLiberum分析师TomPrice预计，今年铝市将出现180万吨的供应缺口。 美国总统特朗普在6月4日将铝进口关税提高一倍至50%，旨在支持在美国生产铝的投资。 美国现货市场的卖家通常支付伦敦金属交易所（LME）的基准价，外加一笔升水，用于支付运费和税 费等成本。 自6月以来，美国中西部地区完税铝升水飙升，25平方毫米的铝芯电缆（AUPX25）周五触及每磅88.10 美分的纪录高位。加上每吨2,850美元的铝价，美国卖家在现货市场 ...

SHMET 网讯：外电10月22日消息，据S&P Global Commodity insights旗下的Platts评估，10月22日，日本四季度铝升水为较伦敦金属交易所(LME)现货价 格每吨高出86美元(CIF日本主要港口，即MJP)，环比下降20.4%，2025年三季度为每吨高出108美元。 在需求方面，市场参与者表示，来自日本国内建造建筑行业和汽车行业的需求仍然疲弱，早些时候，汽车行业的需求受到4月2日生效的美国25%汽车关 税的影响，该关税税率后来被下调至15%，从9月16日起对日本和其他国家生效。 -些市场参与者表示，在关税降低后，预计未来几个月需求将略有改善。 磋商期间的升水报价范围介于每吨92-103美元(CIF日本)，较三季度的MP水平低5%-15%，四季度升水的最低报价要比四季度达成的MJP水平高出7%。 对四季度MJP的买兴疲弱，因为在日本需求疲软的情况下，现货MJP升水水平明显降低。但不久之后便听闻买家的预期在每吨80美元的范围内。 在整个第四季度MJP谈判过程中，99.7% P1020/1020A铝锭的Plats现货升水为较LME现货铝每吨高出60-62美元(CIF日本主要港口)之 ...

Group 1 - The quarterly pricing negotiations between Japanese aluminum buyers and global producers are unusually prolonged due to a significant gap in opinions regarding the premium for primary aluminum for the October-December shipping period [1] - Japanese buyers are negotiating with global suppliers like Rio Tinto and South32, with initial premium offers ranging from $98 to $103 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 5% to 9% compared to the previous quarter [1] - A Japanese processing plant representative indicated that the demand is weak and inventory levels are high, leading buyers to seek premiums in the $80 range, while current spot premiums are noted to be in the $70 range [1] Group 2 - As premiums continue to rise in the US and Europe, it is expected to tighten supply in Asia, prompting sellers to insist on higher premium levels [2] - The negotiations are anticipated to extend until the end of the month due to the ongoing discrepancies in pricing expectations [2]

Core Insights - Canadian aluminum producers have increased shipments to the U.S. market due to rising spot market aluminum prices, highlighting the impact of the 50% aluminum import tariff imposed by Trump earlier this year [1] - The U.S. aluminum tariff, effective from June, aims to boost domestic aluminum production and encourage investment in metals used in electricity, construction, and packaging industries [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October, U.S. consumers are paying a premium for aluminum above LME prices, in addition to taxes, freight, and handling costs [1] - The U.S. is projected to import 2.7 million tons of aluminum from Canada in 2024, accounting for 70% of total U.S. aluminum imports for that year [1] Group 2: Price Trends - U.S. aluminum premiums reached a record high of $0.77 per pound or $1,697 per ton, marking a 250% increase since January [2] - The aluminum premium for Canadian producers has decreased, leading to a 46% increase in European aluminum premiums to $266 per ton since June [3] Group 3: Export Data - From January to August, Canadian exports of unwrought aluminum to the U.S. fell by 22% year-on-year to 1.4 million tons [3] - In August, shipments from Canada to the U.S. totaled 123,474 tons, a 51% decrease from March levels [4] - Conversely, Canadian aluminum shipments to Europe increased by 94% year-on-year to 189,320 tons for the same period [5] Group 4: Inventory and Future Outlook - U.S. Comex aluminum inventories have dropped by 73% since January, totaling 7,661 tons [6] - Analysts suggest that without new trade agreements, aluminum premiums in the U.S. Midwest may have further upward potential [6]

Core Insights - Global aluminum producers have quoted the aluminum premium for Japanese buyers at $98-$103 per ton for the October-December shipping period, reflecting a decrease of 5%-9% compared to the current quarter [1] - Japan, a significant aluminum importing country in Asia, has seen a substantial drop in aluminum premiums, with the premium for the July-September quarter set at $108 per ton, marking a 41% decline from the previous quarter, indicating weak demand [1] Industry Summary - The aluminum premium for Japanese buyers is based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price, and the recent quotes suggest a downward trend in pricing [1] - The significant reduction in premiums highlights a potential oversupply or reduced demand in the market, particularly in Japan, which is a key player in aluminum imports [1]

Group 1 - Marubeni Corp reports that aluminum inventory at Japan's three major ports decreased to 315,400 tons by the end of July 2025, a reduction of 0.4% from the previous month [1] - Yokohama and Nagoya saw a decline in inventory, while Osaka experienced an increase [1] - This marks the second consecutive month of declining aluminum inventory at Japanese ports, indicating relatively weak demand as the aluminum premium in Q3 significantly dropped compared to Q2 levels [1] Group 2 - Specific inventory levels as of July 2025: Yokohama at 136,900 tons (down 0.87% month-on-month), Nagoya at 159,700 tons (down 1.60% month-on-month), and Osaka at 18,800 tons (up 15.34% month-on-month) [2] - Year-on-year changes show Nagoya's inventory increased by 12.70%, while Yokohama and Osaka saw decreases of 1.23% and 2.59% respectively [2] - Overall, the total inventory of 315,400 tons reflects a 5.27% increase compared to July 2024 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decline in aluminum premiums for Japan in Q3, with a drop of 40.66% compared to Q2, reflecting a challenging market environment [1] - The assessed import price for primary aluminum in Japan is set at a premium of $108 per ton over the LME spot price, based on transactions reported between May 30 and June 26 [1] - The price range during negotiations for the Japanese landed price was between $130 and $145 per ton, which is 20-29% lower than the final settled price of $182 per ton in Q2 [2] Group 2 - Market participants expect the aluminum premium for Q3 to be between $105 and $115 per ton, influenced by weak demand from the construction and automotive sectors [3] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on automobiles since April 2, which has negatively impacted demand in the automotive industry [3] - The U.S. aluminum tariff was increased from 25% to 50% on June 4, leading to decreased export interest to the U.S. and an overall oversupply in Europe and Asia [3] Group 3 - Two projects are expected to come online in Q4, but the short-term outlook for Asia remains bearish due to anticipated supply increases and weak demand [4] - The inventory at Japanese major ports was reported at 331,000 tons at the end of May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.34% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.50% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum premium in the U.S. has reached a historic high, driven by increased tariffs on imported aluminum, significantly impacting market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The aluminum premium in the U.S. spot market hit 60 cents per pound or $1,323 per ton, marking a record high [1] - Since November of the previous year, the Midwest aluminum premium has surged nearly 190% [1] - U.S. consumers typically pay the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price plus the premium to cover costs such as freight and taxes [1] Group 2: Import Dependency - The U.S. is highly reliant on aluminum imports, with the majority sourced from Canada [1]