SHMET 网讯：外电10月22日消息，据S&P Global Commodity insights旗下的Platts评估，10月22日，日本四季度铝升水为较伦敦金属交易所(LME)现货价 格每吨高出86美元(CIF日本主要港口，即MJP)，环比下降20.4%，2025年三季度为每吨高出108美元。 在需求方面，市场参与者表示，来自日本国内建造建筑行业和汽车行业的需求仍然疲弱，早些时候，汽车行业的需求受到4月2日生效的美国25%汽车关 税的影响，该关税税率后来被下调至15%，从9月16日起对日本和其他国家生效。 -些市场参与者表示，在关税降低后，预计未来几个月需求将略有改善。 磋商期间的升水报价范围介于每吨92-103美元(CIF日本)，较三季度的MP水平低5%-15%，四季度升水的最低报价要比四季度达成的MJP水平高出7%。 对四季度MJP的买兴疲弱，因为在日本需求疲软的情况下，现货MJP升水水平明显降低。但不久之后便听闻买家的预期在每吨80美元的范围内。 在整个第四季度MJP谈判过程中，99.7% P1020/1020A铝锭的Plats现货升水为较LME现货铝每吨高出60-62美元(CIF日本主要港口)之 ...

在需求低迷的情况下，生产商最初向日本买家提出的10月至12月船期的升水报价为每吨98美元至103美 元，比7月至9月的水平下降5%至9%。 市场人士称，一家生产商后来将报价从103美元下调至97美元，但买家拒绝了，他们寻求80多美元的水 平，并指出原因是现货升水在70多美元。 10月17日（周五），直接参与谈判的三位人士称，日本铝买家与全球生产商之间的季度定价谈判持续时 间异常之长，因为在有关10月-12月船期的原铝升水报价方面，双方意见的巨大差距难以缩小。 日本是亚洲主要的铝进口国，日本同意在伦敦金属交易所(LME) 现货价基础上每季度支付的升水设定 了一个地区基准，但谈判在季度开始后持续数周是不寻常的 日本买家与力拓和South32等全球供应商之间的谈判始于9月初。 一家日本加工厂的人士称："97美元的报价已经过期，我们已经要求生产商重新报价。"其补充说，需求 疲软及库存高企令买家还价在80多美元。 丸红株式会社周五称，截至9月底，日本三大港口的铝库存达到341,300吨，环比增长1.8%。 一家生产商的一位人士说，由于美国和欧洲的升水不断上涨，预计将使亚洲的供应趋紧，因此卖方坚持 要求更高的报价水平，并 ...

Core Insights - Canadian aluminum producers have increased shipments to the U.S. market due to rising spot market aluminum prices, highlighting the impact of the 50% aluminum import tariff imposed by Trump earlier this year [1] - The U.S. aluminum tariff, effective from June, aims to boost domestic aluminum production and encourage investment in metals used in electricity, construction, and packaging industries [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October, U.S. consumers are paying a premium for aluminum above LME prices, in addition to taxes, freight, and handling costs [1] - The U.S. is projected to import 2.7 million tons of aluminum from Canada in 2024, accounting for 70% of total U.S. aluminum imports for that year [1] Group 2: Price Trends - U.S. aluminum premiums reached a record high of $0.77 per pound or $1,697 per ton, marking a 250% increase since January [2] - The aluminum premium for Canadian producers has decreased, leading to a 46% increase in European aluminum premiums to $266 per ton since June [3] Group 3: Export Data - From January to August, Canadian exports of unwrought aluminum to the U.S. fell by 22% year-on-year to 1.4 million tons [3] - In August, shipments from Canada to the U.S. totaled 123,474 tons, a 51% decrease from March levels [4] - Conversely, Canadian aluminum shipments to Europe increased by 94% year-on-year to 189,320 tons for the same period [5] Group 4: Inventory and Future Outlook - U.S. Comex aluminum inventories have dropped by 73% since January, totaling 7,661 tons [6] - Analysts suggest that without new trade agreements, aluminum premiums in the U.S. Midwest may have further upward potential [6]

Core Insights - Global aluminum producers have quoted the aluminum premium for Japanese buyers at $98-$103 per ton for the October-December shipping period, reflecting a decrease of 5%-9% compared to the current quarter [1] - Japan, a significant aluminum importing country in Asia, has seen a substantial drop in aluminum premiums, with the premium for the July-September quarter set at $108 per ton, marking a 41% decline from the previous quarter, indicating weak demand [1] Industry Summary - The aluminum premium for Japanese buyers is based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price, and the recent quotes suggest a downward trend in pricing [1] - The significant reduction in premiums highlights a potential oversupply or reduced demand in the market, particularly in Japan, which is a key player in aluminum imports [1]

Group 1 - Marubeni Corp reports that aluminum inventory at Japan's three major ports decreased to 315,400 tons by the end of July 2025, a reduction of 0.4% from the previous month [1] - Yokohama and Nagoya saw a decline in inventory, while Osaka experienced an increase [1] - This marks the second consecutive month of declining aluminum inventory at Japanese ports, indicating relatively weak demand as the aluminum premium in Q3 significantly dropped compared to Q2 levels [1] Group 2 - Specific inventory levels as of July 2025: Yokohama at 136,900 tons (down 0.87% month-on-month), Nagoya at 159,700 tons (down 1.60% month-on-month), and Osaka at 18,800 tons (up 15.34% month-on-month) [2] - Year-on-year changes show Nagoya's inventory increased by 12.70%, while Yokohama and Osaka saw decreases of 1.23% and 2.59% respectively [2] - Overall, the total inventory of 315,400 tons reflects a 5.27% increase compared to July 2024 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decline in aluminum premiums for Japan in Q3, with a drop of 40.66% compared to Q2, reflecting a challenging market environment [1] - The assessed import price for primary aluminum in Japan is set at a premium of $108 per ton over the LME spot price, based on transactions reported between May 30 and June 26 [1] - The price range during negotiations for the Japanese landed price was between $130 and $145 per ton, which is 20-29% lower than the final settled price of $182 per ton in Q2 [2] Group 2 - Market participants expect the aluminum premium for Q3 to be between $105 and $115 per ton, influenced by weak demand from the construction and automotive sectors [3] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on automobiles since April 2, which has negatively impacted demand in the automotive industry [3] - The U.S. aluminum tariff was increased from 25% to 50% on June 4, leading to decreased export interest to the U.S. and an overall oversupply in Europe and Asia [3] Group 3 - Two projects are expected to come online in Q4, but the short-term outlook for Asia remains bearish due to anticipated supply increases and weak demand [4] - The inventory at Japanese major ports was reported at 331,000 tons at the end of May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.34% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.50% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum premium in the U.S. has reached a historic high, driven by increased tariffs on imported aluminum, significantly impacting market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The aluminum premium in the U.S. spot market hit 60 cents per pound or $1,323 per ton, marking a record high [1] - Since November of the previous year, the Midwest aluminum premium has surged nearly 190% [1] - U.S. consumers typically pay the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price plus the premium to cover costs such as freight and taxes [1] Group 2: Import Dependency - The U.S. is highly reliant on aluminum imports, with the majority sourced from Canada [1]