中金指出，北美铝行业正面临美国加码铝进口贸易壁垒带来的机遇，以及数据中心抢占有限电力资源构 成的挑战。北美铝需求有望维持较快增长，区域供需缺口或将进一步放大。我们认为交通运输领域有望 在美国关税壁垒保护下，实现汽车制造产能利用率回升，航空航天领域的强势订单亦可支撑飞机制造需 求；住宅建筑铝需求或将在新屋开工触底后企稳反弹；数据中心和制造业回流或令美国电力供需进一步 趋紧，电力行业的高景气投资或持续拉动相关铝需求。我们认为北美的供需缺口或将在2025-2030年持 续放大，而中西部溢价有望维持在较高水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains a "buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 by 34.3%, 17.68%, and 2.95% to CNY 21.659 billion, CNY 20.889 billion, and CNY 21.912 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 2.29, CNY 2.20, and CNY 2.31 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 81.039 billion for the first half of 2025, an increase of 8.48% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 12.361 billion, up 35.02% year-on-year, aligning with previous profit forecasts [2] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.67%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an average price of electrolytic aluminum at CNY 20,300 per ton, up 2.66% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The decline in electricity costs, influenced by falling coal prices, is expected to enhance profitability, particularly in Shandong where the company has a high proportion of purchased electricity from coal [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth no less than HKD 3 billion, reflecting management's confidence in future performance and long-term investment value [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the upward trend in aluminum prices for the second half of 2025, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from the photovoltaic and automotive sectors [5] - The outlook for alumina prices is stable, with limited downside potential due to ongoing mining inventory reduction cycles, despite a generally loose supply situation [5]

Core Insights - The Indian government document indicates that domestic aluminum demand in India is projected to reach 8.5 million tons by the fiscal year 2030 [1] Industry Summary - The aluminum industry in India is expected to experience significant growth, with a forecasted demand increase to 8.5 million tons by 2030 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic demand for aluminum in India is projected to reach 8.5 million tons by the fiscal year 2030 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) forecasts a 2% increase in China's aluminum demand this year, reaching approximately 44 million tons [1] Industry Summary - ANZ projects that China's aluminum demand will grow by 2% in 2023 [1] - The expected demand level is around 44 million tons, indicating a significant market for aluminum in China [1]