1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", the previous rating was also "Overweight", and the rating remains unchanged [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, fiscal policy was proactive. The issuance scale of government bonds increased significantly year - on - year and the issuance rhythm was advanced, leading to an increase in banks' bond allocation scale. The bond allocation rhythm was low in the first half and high in the second half, with structural differentiation. Banks increased their allocation of treasury bonds and reduced their allocation of certificates of deposit [12]. - It is expected that in 2026, banks will still maintain a certain demand for bond allocation, with a slightly stronger intensity than in 2025. The estimated bond allocation amount for banks in 2026E is 9.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.4% [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Commercial Bank Bond Allocation Review 1.1 Fiscal Policy Is Proactive, and Banks' Bond Allocation Scale Increases Year - on - Year - The issuance scale of government bonds increased significantly year - on - year in 2025, and the issuance rhythm was advanced. From January to November, the net financing of government bonds (treasury bonds + local special bonds) increased by 3.07 trillion yuan year - on - year, and 96% of the annual issuance plan was completed [17]. - From January to October, commercial banks' cumulative bond allocation scale was 8.2 trillion yuan, a 24% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The allocation proportion of treasury bonds reached a peak in the past three years (56%), and the market share of narrow - sense interest - rate bond allocation also increased significantly [19] 1.2 Banks' Bond Allocation Rhythm Is Low in the First Half and High in the Second Half - In the first quarter, banks' bond allocation demand was weak due to the "good start" of credit and the upward pressure on long - term interest rates. Since the second quarter, with the continuous advancement of debt resolution policies, the decline in infrastructure and industrial investment, and the weakening of public - sector credit demand, combined with the periodic rise of long - term interest rates, banks' bond allocation demand has recovered [25] 1.3 Structural Differentiation: State - owned Big Banks and City Commercial Banks Strengthen Their Bond Allocation - State - owned big banks have a strong customer base and stable core deposits. Their deposit growth rate has continued to pick up this year, and their bond allocation intensity has increased moderately due to the imbalance between deposit and loan growth rates [32]. - The deposit growth of joint - stock banks has slowed down. Although their financial investment growth rate has generally recovered, their overall bond allocation intensity is weaker than that of state - owned big banks due to the limited scale of available funds [32]. - City commercial banks have sufficient available funds due to high deposit growth and high expansion rates, so their bond allocation intensity has increased [35]. - Rural commercial banks may have greater deposit - taking pressure and less new available funds. They have disposed of more financial investment assets to make up for profits, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of investment assets [35] 1.4 Increase in Treasury Bond Allocation and Decrease in Certificate of Deposit Allocation - The proportion of listed banks' financial investment has generally increased, with a significant increase in the investment proportion of state - owned banks. As of the end of October 2025, the proportion of treasury bond allocation in banks' stock bond investment structure increased by 2.7 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year, while the proportion of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1.4 percentage points [41]. - The increase in treasury bond allocation is due to the weak credit expansion of the private sector and the continuous increase in government financing demand. The decrease in certificate of deposit allocation is due to the continuous decline in the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit and the narrowing of the spread with banks' deposit - taking costs [46] 2026 Commercial Bank Bond Allocation Outlook 2.1 From the Total Amount Perspective: The Available Funds for Allocation Will Grow Steadily, and the Bond Allocation Demand Is Expected to Recover - Deposit growth has stabilized and increased. The deposit growth rate of residents has remained stable, and the deposit growth rate of non - financial enterprises has turned positive. The bond - issuing rate of large banks with good credit has increased significantly in the first three quarters, while that of small and medium - sized banks has decreased [51]. - The repair of the public - sector expenditure side will drive the recovery of effective financing demand, and the bond allocation scale of commercial banks is expected to increase steadily [57] 2.2 From the Duration Perspective - **① The demand for medium - and long - term bond allocation may increase under the trend of deposit term - to - maturity**: Since 2018, the proportion of time deposits on the liability side of banks has continued to rise. It is expected that the trend of deposit term - to - maturity will continue in 2026, and banks may increase their allocation of medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds to cover the more rigid deposit interest - payment costs [60]. - **② Banks' allocation of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may be restricted under duration constraints**: Banks need to consider indicators such as interest - rate risk sensitivity, liquidity coverage ratio, and economic value change when allocating bonds. As of the end of 2024, some state - owned big banks' ΔEVE has exceeded 14% of their Tier - 1 capital, and their allocation space for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may be relatively limited [64][68] 2.3 From the Liability Cost Perspective: The Cost of FTP for Proprietary Investment Decreases - Banks have actively adjusted the liability term structure and controlled costs. It is expected that the deposit repricing effect will continue in 2026, driving the cost of the liability side to decline further and the cost of proprietary bond investment to decrease, which is conducive to banks' bond allocation [79] 2.4 Summary of Banks' Bond Allocation Outlook - It is expected that in 2026, banks will still maintain a certain demand for bond allocation, with a slightly stronger intensity than in the previous year. From the perspective of asset growth rate, available funds are expected to grow steadily; from the perspective of asset - liability duration, banks may increase their allocation of medium - and long - term bonds, but the allocation of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may be restricted; from the perspective of liability cost, banks' willingness to allocate bonds in the financial market may be further enhanced [82]

"大家最关心的是，银行卖债是否会导致债券收益率快速上行，甚至引发二级市场调整。"一位国有大行 交易部门人士对记者表示。但他同时指出，当前这一行为诉求已明显趋于平稳：一方面，前三季度债市 震荡已导致持有债券浮盈空间收窄，部分银行公允价值变动收益甚至为负；另一方面，信贷需求偏弱、 资产端仍有"缺资产"压力，银行更倾向于增配债券而非集中卖出。 中信证券首席经济学家明明指出，年末银行卖债主要出于两大动因：总行层面确保盈利增速平稳，以及 部门层面实现业绩目标。但结合上市银行财报观察，OCI账户债券占比提升、存量配置盘老券充裕，使 得银行在年末的卖债诉求相对有限。 长江证券固定收益赵增辉团队认为，配债预计继续支撑扩表。从资产投放视角而言，四季度银行信贷投 放一般会季节性走弱，可用资金会向金融投资倾斜；从投资性价比角度来看，银行负债成本下行，为配 债打开一定空间；同时四季度若政府债发行节奏相对趋缓，则从被动承接规模、久期压力方面都会为银 行主动配债打开一定空间。 "缺资产"压力未解。 临近2025年年末，市场再度关注银行是否会通过"卖债兑现浮盈"锁定利润、冲刺部门业绩，从而引发债 市波动。多位机构分析师向记者表示，今年银行 ...