尽管受历史遗留问题和法律拨备等特殊项目影响，汇丰控股当期报告税前利润同比有所下滑，但营收端 的稳健增长及核心业务的盈利韧性凸显战略执行成效，管理层因此上调全年业绩预期。 汇丰预计，2025年剔除特殊项目后的有形股本回报率（RoTE）将达到15%左右甚至更高，高于此前指 引区间。 受业绩公布提振，10月28日，汇丰控股港股升3.73%，收盘价为105.80港元。 第三季度利润下滑 （汇丰银行 梁远浩摄） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 袁思杰 香港报道 10月28日，汇丰控股公告，2025年度第三季度总营收增至178亿美元，同比上升5%，高于此前预期的 167亿美元。税前利润为73亿美元，同比下降14%。 双轮驱动支撑业绩 从数据结构看，汇丰第三季度业绩的增长动力呈现 "息差主导、财富补强" 的清晰格局。 净利息收入的强劲增长构成了汇丰本季度业绩的核心支撑。数据显示，第三季度净利息收益达88亿美 元，较去年同期的76.37亿美元激增15%，贡献了总营收增量的主要部分。 具体来看，这一增长得益于多重因素叠加：香港银行同业拆息（HIBOR）回升带动净利息收益率同比 提升11个基点至1.57%，客户存款规模扩大形成的 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that HSBC Holdings (00005) has released its third-quarter results, benefiting from improvements in net interest income and fee income, with adjusted pre-provision profit and pre-tax profit exceeding expectations by 9% [1] Financial Performance - Pre-provision profit increased by 9%, while fee and other income surpassed expectations by 6% [1] - Operating expenses were 1% higher than anticipated, with provisions for loan losses aligning with expectations at 40 basis points of total loans [1] Guidance Updates - HSBC has raised its guidance for tangible equity return and net interest income for banking operations for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The updated guidance for annual net interest income is set at $43 billion or better, up from the previous $42 billion, with market consensus at $42.45 billion [1] - Targeted benchmark operating expenses are expected to increase by 3% year-on-year to approximately $33.5 billion, with market consensus at $33.3 billion [1] - Loan loss provisions are projected at around 40 basis points, compared to market consensus of approximately 42 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - European bank stocks have surged over 40% this year, but recent political uncertainties in France have impacted market sentiment, posing challenges for the sector. Despite this, the banking sector remains the best-performing segment in Europe this year, with a net return of approximately 300% for investors who bought in five years ago, compared to a 70% return for the broader Stoxx index [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Profitability - The recent surge in bank stocks is attributed to strong earnings performance, primarily due to relatively high interest rates in recent years and improved economic growth prospects, with most banks exceeding profit expectations [2]. - Analysts suggest that as interest rates decline, future profitability for the banking sector may stabilize or even decline, with potential increases in corporate default rates due to tariff policies [2]. - Morgan Stanley analysts noted that second-quarter earnings data supports the view that net interest income (NII) for banks may recover growth earlier than expected, with projections for recovery by 2026 [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Environment - Despite a potential slowdown in profit growth, the banking sector is expected to receive support as the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts approach their end, marking the end of the negative interest rate era [5]. - European banks are more sensitive to interest rate changes compared to their U.S. counterparts, with net interest income accounting for 60% of their operating income [6]. - Market expectations indicate that interest rates are unlikely to fall significantly below 2%, providing a favorable environment for banks to profit from their deposit businesses [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Performance - The average price-to-book ratio for the European Stoxx 600 banking index has risen to 1.12, indicating increased market confidence in the sector's ability to generate shareholder value [9]. - Not all banks are performing equally; German and Spanish banks have shown relative strength due to merger expectations and strong economic activity, while UBS faces multiple challenges including high tariffs and new capital regulations [9][12]. - Overall, investor risk assessments for the banking sector have decreased, as reflected in the declining credit default swap (CDS) rates, indicating improved market sentiment [15]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Some analysts maintain a neutral stance on the banking sector, suggesting that while the upward momentum is positive, current stock prices do not support overly optimistic views [18]. - Conversely, there are recommendations to consider buying on dips, with Morgan Stanley suggesting that any weakness in European bank stocks could present buying opportunities [18].

高盛发表研究报告指，汇丰控股第二季核心盈利较该行及市场预期高出9%及10%，主要受拨备前利润 (PPOP)强劲推动，收入亦超出预期，得益于非银行净利息收入表现优异。管理层重申2025年银行净利 息收入达到约420亿美元、成本增长约3%及2025至27年基本股本回报率(ROTE)介乎14%至16%等指引， 但将全年信贷成本指引上调至约40基点。 汇控管理层目前预期，若HIBOR维持现时的约1%水平，每月将对银行净利息收入产生约1亿美元负面影 响。高盛将2025至27年各年银行净利息收入预测轻微上调至419亿、430亿及441亿美元，较市场预期高 出最多4%；2025至2029年每股盈利预测分别上调6%、5%、4%、3%及2%。基于盈利预测上调，高盛将 汇控英股目标价由1020便士上调至1060便士，H股目标价由原先109港元微升至110港元，维持"买入"评 级。 ...