Group 1 - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure in China reached 11.6 trillion USD in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a historical high for the same period [2][4] - This figure represents a year-on-year growth of 10.5% compared to the previous year [4] - The net inflow of cross-border funds was 119.7 billion USD, and the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was 63.2 billion USD, both exceeding the levels of the same period last year [4] Group 2 - The foreign exchange market in China has shown stable operation and expectations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality throughout the year [4]

Group 1 - The total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached $7.6 trillion in the first half of 2025, marking a historical high for the same period [1][2] - The proportion of Renminbi in cross-border receipts and payments reached 53% [2] - The net inflow of cross-border funds for non-bank sectors was $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend observed since the second half of last year [2] Group 2 - China's international balance of payments remains basically balanced [2] - The foreign exchange market operates in a stable and orderly manner [2]

Core Insights - In April, there was a net inflow of cross-border capital amounting to 17.3 billion USD from non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals [1] - The resilience of China's foreign trade contributed to a net inflow of 64.9 billion USD in goods trade, maintaining a high level [1] - Foreign investment in RMB assets remains strong, with a net increase of 10.9 billion USD in domestic bonds and a shift to net buying in domestic stocks by foreign investors in late April [1] Summary by Categories Cross-Border Capital Flows - The overall cross-border capital showed a net inflow of 17.3 billion USD in April, driven by non-bank sectors [1] - The net inflow from goods trade was 64.9 billion USD, indicating robust foreign trade performance [1] Foreign Investment - Foreign investors increased their holdings in domestic bonds by 10.9 billion USD in April, reflecting a positive sentiment towards RMB assets [1] - In late April, foreign investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying, signaling a shift in investment strategy [1] Market Conditions - The banking sector reported a total of 213.9 billion USD in foreign exchange settlements and 218.2 billion USD in foreign exchange sales in April [1] - The foreign exchange market showed stability, with a settlement rate of 64.4% and a sales rate of 65.4%, both indicating a balanced market expectation [1] - The overall foreign exchange supply and demand remained basically balanced, with active market transactions [1]

Core Viewpoint - In May, the overall balance of foreign exchange supply and demand in China remained stable, with a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to 33 billion USD from non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In May, the net inflow of funds from goods trade remained at a high level, and foreign investment in domestic stocks increased compared to the previous month [1] - The foreign exchange statistics showed that in May, banks settled 192.7 billion USD and sold 181.4 billion USD [1] - The foreign exchange market operated smoothly, with banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales turning into a surplus [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - The net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors was 33 billion USD [1] - The overall outflow from service trade, foreign investment enterprise dividends, and direct foreign investment remained stable [1] - The foreign exchange income for clients was 622.7 billion USD, while foreign payments amounted to 589.7 billion USD [1] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Context - Market expectations remained stable in May, with a rational and orderly trading environment [1] - The demand for foreign exchange purchases decreased, while the willingness of enterprises and individuals to settle foreign exchange remained stable [1] - The overall economic situation in China is stable and progressing, providing strong support for the healthy operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Market Overview - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that in the first half of 2025, cross-border income and expenditure reached a record high of $7.6 trillion, with a net inflow of $127.3 billion from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of last year [1] - The USD/CNY exchange rate appreciated by 1.9% in the first half of the year, with no significant expectations for further appreciation or depreciation in the market [1] Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% reciprocal tariff and a $550 billion investment from Japan into the U.S. market, alongside market openings for products like automobiles and rice [1] - The Philippines is set to open its market to the U.S. with zero tariffs, while the U.S. will impose a 19% tariff on imports from the Philippines [1] Monetary Policy - Trump has called for a 3% reduction in interest rates, criticizing the current rates for negatively impacting the housing market [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin noted that tariff revenues could account for 1% of U.S. GDP, potentially reaching $2.8 trillion over the next decade [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% in the upcoming meeting, despite recent political developments [2] Global Market Dynamics - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.4% and the Nasdaq down 0.39% [3] - Precious metals futures saw gains, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.10% to $3,444.00 per ounce [3] - Oil prices experienced slight declines, with WTI crude oil down 0.76% to $65.45 per barrel [3] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down 3.17 basis points to 4.344% [3] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.49%, while most non-USD currencies appreciated against the dollar [3]

Domestic News - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of real estate development loans reached 13.81 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, with an increase of 292.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] - The balance of personal housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1%, but the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year, with an increase of 51 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] - In the first half of 2025, non-bank sectors recorded a historical high in cross-border income and expenditure, totaling 7.6 trillion USD, with a net inflow of 127.3 billion USD [1][2] Consumer Market - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods has shown significant results, with over 66 million consumers purchasing more than 109 million units of 12 categories of home appliances [2] - Additionally, over 69 million consumers bought more than 7.4 million digital products, and 82,000 sales outlets conducted exchanges for electric bicycles, resulting in 9.056 million new purchases [2] Economic Indicators - By the end of June, the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.071 billion, 245 million, and 300 million respectively, all showing steady year-on-year increases [2] - The total income of the three social insurance funds in the first half of the year was 4.53 trillion yuan, with total expenditures of 3.89 trillion yuan, resulting in a cumulative balance of 9.83 trillion yuan [2] International News - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projected that the recently enacted "big and beautiful" bill will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by 3.39 trillion USD from 2025 to 2034, slightly above previous estimates [4] - According to Morgan Stanley, the global economic annualized growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 2.4%, consistent with long-term trends despite various challenges [4]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has shown rational and orderly trading, with a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to $51.7 billion in the first quarter, indicating a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has been expanding financial market openness and enhancing the attractiveness of the domestic securities market to foreign investors [1][3] Group 1: Cross-Border Fund Flows - In the first quarter, the net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached $51.7 billion, reflecting a strong demand for foreign exchange [1] - In March, the banks' foreign exchange settlement amounted to $189.6 billion, while foreign exchange sales were $191.6 billion, resulting in a deficit of $2 billion, which is a significant narrowing from the previous deficit of $10.4 billion [1] - The bank's foreign exchange income for March was $692 billion, with payments of $642.8 billion, leading to a surplus of $49.2 billion, indicating continued net inflow of cross-border funds [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Currency Stability - The net inflow of cross-border funds under the goods trade category reached $206.3 billion in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 120% [2] - Foreign investment in Chinese bonds has increased, with a net increase of $26.9 billion in domestic bonds from February to March, representing an 84% year-on-year growth [2] - The RMB exchange rate has shown two-way fluctuations, with the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate at 7.288 as of April 21, reflecting a 0.1% appreciation since the end of 2024 [2] Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to introduce new incremental policies as needed, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation [3] - The attractiveness of the domestic securities market to foreign capital is expected to continue to increase, supported by ongoing policy measures to facilitate cross-border trade and investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall balance of foreign exchange supply and demand in China remained stable in May, with a net inflow of cross-border funds continuing. Group 1: Cross-Border Fund Flows - In May, the net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached 33 billion USD [1] - The net inflow of trade-related funds remained at a high level, with foreign investment in domestic stocks increasing further compared to the previous month [1] - Outflows from service trade, foreign investment enterprise dividends, and direct investments abroad remained stable overall [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - In May, banks transitioned to a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales [1] - The willingness of enterprises and individuals to settle foreign exchange remained stable, while the demand for foreign exchange purchases decreased [1] - The current economic situation in China is characterized by overall stability and progress, which will continue to support the sound operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Group 1 - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have lowered the RMB deposit rates, with the current rate for demand deposits down by 5 basis points to 0.05% and various term deposit rates reduced by 15 to 25 basis points [1] - The National Financial Supervision Administration has approved Xinhua Insurance to participate in the third batch of long-term investment reform pilot programs, with plans to establish the Honghu Fund Phase III [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in retail prices for gasoline and diesel, with a decrease of 230 yuan per ton for gasoline and 220 yuan per ton for diesel, translating to a savings of approximately 9 yuan for a full tank of 92-octane gasoline [2] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai announced the approval of a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per share [3] - Wanrun New Energy signed a supply agreement with CATL for 132.31 thousand tons of lithium iron phosphate products [3] - The stock of Weir Shares will change its name to Haowei Group [2]