文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月16日发布的 浮盈被动"兑现"，缺负债明显缓解——固收角度拆解银行一季报 唐元懋 ，资格证书编号： S0880524040 00 2 藏 多 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040116 报告导读： 银行 OCI 浮盈积累大多已消耗过半，但主要是债市行情走弱下的被动消耗， 而非银行主动卖出兑现。净息差方面，压力主要在大行， Q2 "缺负债"缓解后预计净息差 底部将更加明确。 银行 OCI 浮盈积累大多已消耗过半，个别银行已转为浮亏；大行消耗比例相对更小，但也达到了三分之 一左右。 六大行中除了一家消耗了约半数浮盈积累、将 24 年全年的浮盈增量全部消耗完毕之外，其余银 行均消耗了存量的三分之一左右。而其余类型银行消耗压力均较大，在 33 家有数据的上市银行中，消耗 了超半数的浮盈积累的银行达到了 25 家，其中更是有 7 家已经转为浮亏。 债市投资收益的低迷也明显 拖累了上市银行营收表现。 一季度非息收入分别拖累股份行和城商行营收增长 3.81pcts 、 6.42pcts ， 对农商行的贡献由 7.30pcts 大幅降至 4.52pcts 。但对于大行而言正向贡献程度加强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The accumulation of OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) floating profits in banks has been largely consumed, primarily due to passive consumption from a weak bond market rather than active selling by banks. The pressure on net interest margins is mainly observed in large banks, and with the alleviation of the "lack of liabilities" issue in Q2, a clearer bottom for net interest margins is expected [1][15]. Group 1: OCI Floating Profit Consumption - Most banks have consumed over half of their OCI floating profit accumulation, with some banks even turning to floating losses. Among the six major banks, one has consumed about half of its floating profit accumulation, while others have consumed around one-third. In total, 25 out of 33 listed banks have consumed more than half of their OCI floating profits, with 7 turning to floating losses [2][5]. - The low performance of bond market investment returns has significantly dragged down the revenue performance of listed banks. In Q1, non-interest income reduced the revenue growth of joint-stock banks and city commercial banks by 3.81 percentage points and 6.42 percentage points, respectively, while the contribution to rural commercial banks dropped from 7.30 percentage points to 4.52 percentage points [2][5]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The pressure on net interest margins and the resistance to recovery are primarily seen in large banks, which have passively shifted to interbank certificates of deposit and interbank fixed deposits due to a "lack of liabilities" in Q1. The average net interest margin for large banks narrowed by 0.10 percentage points to a low of 1.39% in Q1 [15]. - The alleviation of the "lack of liabilities" pressure and the stabilization of interbank deposit scale and prices are expected to lead to a significant easing of net interest margin narrowing pressure for large banks in Q2, reflecting the effectiveness of previous measures to reduce funding costs [15]. Group 3: Retail Loan Risks - Risks in retail loans remain, with no consistent trend of alleviation observed. Banks with a higher proportion of retail loans face greater difficulty in reducing non-performing loan rates compared to their peers, and the speed of provision consumption is faster [9]. - An analysis of three state-owned banks with retail loan ratios exceeding 50% shows a divergence in the direction and magnitude of changes in provision coverage ratios, the proportion of loans under scrutiny, and non-performing loan rates [9].