Group 1 - The South Korean government has decided to implement a visa-free entry policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29 this year to June 30 next year, which is expected to positively impact the domestic tourism and circulation industry [1] - In the first half of this year, South Korea received 2.527 million Chinese tourists, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, recovering to 90% of the level seen in the same period of 2019 before the pandemic [1] - The industry anticipates that the new visa-free policy, launching just before China's "Golden Week" holiday, could lead to a significant boost in the autumn tourism market [1] Group 2 - The hotel industry is actively launching customized travel products for Chinese tourists and conducting various marketing activities to create a welcoming atmosphere in advance [1] - The duty-free industry believes that group tourists generally have a higher per capita spending level compared to independent travelers, and the visa-free measures are expected to inject positive momentum into sales recovery [1]

机构：交银国际 研究员：肖凯希/钱昊 管理层表示，2 季度的复苏趋势环比1 季度走弱，略低于公司此前预期；此外， 7 月以来公司的流水和 折扣仍然承压。整体来看，我们认为公司下半年销售恢复趋势仍将缓慢，因此，基于更加谨慎的销售预 期，我们下调2025-27 年的净利润预测，给予目标价16.28 港元，维持中性评级。我们认为公司目前估 值已充分反应了当前阶段的稳健经营策略和销售恢复前景。 2 季度线下渠道仍然疲软，库存健康但折扣压力加大：分渠道来看，2 季度线上渠道的流水表现优于线 下渠道，电商渠道录得同比中单位数的增长，而线下渠道录得低单位数的同比下降。相对来说，批发渠 道的流水表现好于零售渠道，线下批发/零售渠道分别录得同比低单位数增长/中单位数下跌。公司表 示，2 季度末库销比恢复到了4 个月的水平，相对健康；但全渠道折扣同比低单位数加深，我们相信持 续的行业促销将给公司的毛利率带来压力，因此我们预期2025 年的毛利率将同比小幅下降。 基于更谨慎的销售假设，我们下调了公司2025-27 年的盈利预测，维持中性评级：2 季度以来，我们看 到行业整体复苏偏软、促销氛围浓厚（如618 活动）。因此，我们认为公 ...