Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has issued a report indicating that while gold prices are expected to rise, the sales resilience of Luk Fook Holdings (00590) needs to be observed, especially considering the high base during the Lunar New Year period. The firm maintains a "Neutral" rating with a target price of HKD 23 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - For the third quarter of the fiscal year ending in 2026, same-store sales growth for Luk Fook's brand stores in mainland China reached 31% [1] - Same-store sales growth for self-operated stores in mainland China was 7%, which accelerated from the previous quarter's growth of 7%, returning to pre-pandemic levels [1] - In the Hong Kong and Macau markets, same-store sales growth increased from 11% to 16% [1] Group 2: Market Context - Compared to the sales data released by the company in October to November of the previous year, Goldman Sachs notes a slowdown in growth for the latter half of the last fiscal quarter, although it remains in line with market expectations [1] - The growth is believed to be influenced by a gold rush in mainland China last October and the impact of new tax measures leading to an increase in gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Luk Fook's same-store sales growth in mainland China reached 31% for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending in 2026, indicating a recovery to pre-pandemic levels [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Same-store sales growth for self-operated stores in mainland China was 7%, accelerating from the previous quarter's 7% [1] - Same-store sales growth in the Hong Kong and Macau market increased from 11% to 16% [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Compared to sales data released by the company in October to November of the previous year, Goldman Sachs notes a slowdown in growth for the latter half of the last fiscal quarter, although it remains in line with market expectations [1] - The report attributes this slowdown to a "gold rush" in mainland China last October and the impact of new tax measures leading to rising gold prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the need to monitor Luk Fook's sales resilience amid rising gold prices and relatively weak overall consumer spending [1] - The firm maintains a "neutral" rating with a target price of HKD 23, considering the high base during the Lunar New Year period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 34.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 910 million yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations due to improved gross margins and increased proportion of recognized projects [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit growth in H1 2025 was driven by a 1.0 percentage point increase in gross margin to 12.9%, a 4 percentage point decrease in minority interests to 39%, and a 59% year-on-year increase in profits from joint ventures to 400 million yuan [1] - The company recorded a 39% year-on-year increase in inventory impairment provisions to 390 million yuan, with cumulative impairments exceeding 10 billion yuan from 2021 to H1 2025, indicating significant historical burden reduction [1] - The total recognized but uncompleted resources reached 250.4 billion yuan by the end of H1 2025, with 96% of projects acquired in 2022 and later, and an expected net profit margin of 5-6% [1] Group 2: Sales and Market Strategy - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 53.4 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%, significantly outperforming the average sales decline of 13% among top 100 real estate companies, improving its industry ranking to 6th [1] - The company continues to focus on core cities, with a strategy to enhance market share and brand strength in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, planning to launch more new projects [1] - The company supplemented its total inventory value by 98.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with over 60% of new acquisitions concentrated in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [1] Group 3: Financial Health and Cost of Capital - As of the end of H1 2025, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 86.4 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.2% quarter-on-quarter, maintaining a healthy financial position with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.9% and a net debt ratio of 33.4% [2] - The financing cost for H1 2025 was 3.17%, a decrease of 39 basis points from the end of 2024, marking a historical low [2] - In July, the company raised 1.011 billion Hong Kong dollars through a placement of 64.6 million new shares at 15.80 HKD per share, enhancing liquidity and optimizing capital structure for future investment opportunities [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Given the company's strong sales performance and ongoing optimization of recognized but uncompleted resources, revenue assumptions for 2025-2027 have been revised upward, with slight increases in gross margin assumptions for 2025-2026 [2] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.06, 2.29, and 2.49 yuan, reflecting adjustments of -0.5%, +9.6%, and +11.7% respectively [2] - The company’s book value per share (BPS) for 2025 is estimated at 12.90 yuan, with a target price of 21.60 HKD based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.52, indicating an increase in premium from 60% to 80% [2]