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建发国际集团(1908.HK):灯塔项目强化产品力
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-28 12:10
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 34.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 910 million yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations due to improved gross margins and increased proportion of recognized projects [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit growth in H1 2025 was driven by a 1.0 percentage point increase in gross margin to 12.9%, a 4 percentage point decrease in minority interests to 39%, and a 59% year-on-year increase in profits from joint ventures to 400 million yuan [1] - The company recorded a 39% year-on-year increase in inventory impairment provisions to 390 million yuan, with cumulative impairments exceeding 10 billion yuan from 2021 to H1 2025, indicating significant historical burden reduction [1] - The total recognized but uncompleted resources reached 250.4 billion yuan by the end of H1 2025, with 96% of projects acquired in 2022 and later, and an expected net profit margin of 5-6% [1] Group 2: Sales and Market Strategy - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 53.4 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%, significantly outperforming the average sales decline of 13% among top 100 real estate companies, improving its industry ranking to 6th [1] - The company continues to focus on core cities, with a strategy to enhance market share and brand strength in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, planning to launch more new projects [1] - The company supplemented its total inventory value by 98.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with over 60% of new acquisitions concentrated in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [1] Group 3: Financial Health and Cost of Capital - As of the end of H1 2025, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 86.4 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.2% quarter-on-quarter, maintaining a healthy financial position with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.9% and a net debt ratio of 33.4% [2] - The financing cost for H1 2025 was 3.17%, a decrease of 39 basis points from the end of 2024, marking a historical low [2] - In July, the company raised 1.011 billion Hong Kong dollars through a placement of 64.6 million new shares at 15.80 HKD per share, enhancing liquidity and optimizing capital structure for future investment opportunities [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Given the company's strong sales performance and ongoing optimization of recognized but uncompleted resources, revenue assumptions for 2025-2027 have been revised upward, with slight increases in gross margin assumptions for 2025-2026 [2] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.06, 2.29, and 2.49 yuan, reflecting adjustments of -0.5%, +9.6%, and +11.7% respectively [2] - The company’s book value per share (BPS) for 2025 is estimated at 12.90 yuan, with a target price of 21.60 HKD based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.52, indicating an increase in premium from 60% to 80% [2]