商贸零售 《武商集团布局仓储会员店，探索本 土化成长路径—行业周报》-2025.8.10 中报发布进行时，珠宝、美护优质品牌验证高景气 ——行业周报 黄泽鹏（分析师） 姚慕宇（联系人） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 商贸零售 2025 年 08 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《7 月社零同比+3.7%，老铺黄金官宣 产品调价计划—行业周报》-2025.8.17 《7 月社零同比+3.7%，金银珠宝和化 妆 品 环 比 改 善 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.8.15 yaomuyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125040021 中报发布进行时，珠宝、美护优质品牌验证高景气 （1）黄金珠宝：从黄金珠宝板块标的中报来看，老铺黄金、潮宏基、莱绅通灵、 周六福、英皇钟表珠宝实现亮眼增长，其中老铺黄金实现营收 123.54 亿元 （+251.0%），归母净利润 22.68 亿元（+285.8%），潮宏基实现营收 41. ...

7月主要商品中，涨幅最明显的是文化办公用品，同比涨幅达78%。其次是家用电器和音像器材 类，增幅为49.7%。 记者 李珺瑶 崔艺林 实习生 詹傢杰 上海市统计局近日公布了7月社会消费品零售总额情况。7月，上海社会消费品零售总额为1291.38 亿元，同比增长7.8%。对比全国同比3.7%的增长，上海7月消费数据可谓亮眼。 办公用品和家电增速靠前 从统计数据看，7月商品零售额达1140.85亿元，同比增长9.7%，拉高了社零增速。 具体分析，7月黄金珠宝消费回暖，与"五五购物节""上海之夏"等大力度的消费促销活动大有关 系。如"五五购物节"期间全市黄金消费最集中的黄浦区举办了"璀璨金喜大豫园"精品推广节活动，消费 者最高能享受10000减1000，5000减750的活动。不少店铺还推出限时特价、满额赠礼等活动。从不少黄 金珠宝品牌公布的业绩看，7月回暖趋势也非常明显。 汽车消费年内首次正增长 值得注意的是，7月上海的汽车消费出现了同比增长，这也是今年首次正增长。此前，虽然整体汽 车市场受"以旧换新"政策拉动，但受市场竞争影响，许多厂家与经销商以降价换销量，导致销量涨而收 入不涨、收入增而利润不增，销售额持续走 ...

Core Insights - Zhou Liufu Jewelry Co., Ltd. reported its first financial results since going public, showing a revenue of 3.15 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.45 yuan per share [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 3.15 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 827 million yuan and a net profit of 415 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 8.7%, and 11.9% respectively [1] - Online sales became a significant growth driver, generating 1.632 billion yuan in revenue, a 34% increase year-on-year, accounting for 52% of total revenue [1] - The company's online sales during the "618" shopping festival exceeded 700 million yuan, marking a 36% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2: Channel Performance - As of June 30, Zhou Liufu operated 3,760 franchise stores and 97 self-operated stores, with franchise stores making up 97.49% of the total [2] - Franchise revenue declined by 17% to 1.229 billion yuan, while self-operated store revenue fell by 15% to 213 million yuan due to fluctuations in consumer demand and rising gold prices [2] - Same-store sales in the second quarter showed a recovery with a 13.5% year-on-year increase [2] Group 3: Brand and Market Strategy - Zhou Liufu opened its first high-end flagship store, marking a strategic shift towards a premium brand positioning [3] - The company is expanding its international presence, having entered markets such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia, with plans to increase overseas stores to 10 by the end of the year [3] - The company aims to enhance customer loyalty and profitability by transitioning its product structure towards lighter and more fashionable items [2][3] Group 4: Market Positioning - The company is focusing on optimizing product design and supply chain efficiency to maintain market competitiveness [2] - Zhou Liufu's inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index, effective September 8, is expected to enhance its market visibility [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][15]. Core Views - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, projecting revenues of 255.17 billion, 369.59 billion, and 470.41 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 200.0%, 44.8%, and 27.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 47.06 billion, 68.32 billion, and 91.13 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 219.5%, 45.2%, and 33.4% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 27.25, 39.57, and 52.78 CNY per share [4][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Lao Pu Gold (06181), operates in the retail trade industry and has shown significant international expansion and brand influence [6][12]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 123.54 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 251.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22.68 billion CNY, up 285.8% year-on-year [12][13]. Market Position - The company has increased its loyal membership base to 480,000, with same-store sales growth of approximately 200.8%. The average sales revenue per store reached 4.59 billion CNY, leading all jewelry brands in mainland China [13]. Expansion Strategy - The company has expanded its store presence, entering high-end shopping centers in Shanghai and Singapore, and optimizing existing stores. As of June 2025, it has opened 41 self-operated stores across 16 cities, successfully entering 9 out of the top 10 major commercial centers in China [14]. Future Projections - The report forecasts significant revenue and profit growth for the company, with expected revenues of 25.517 billion, 36.959 billion, and 47.041 billion CNY for 2025-2027, and net profits of 4.706 billion, 6.832 billion, and 9.113 billion CNY respectively [15][17].

Group 1 - The digital currency concept sector in A-shares experienced a significant surge, with the sector's intraday increase exceeding 5%, leading to multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Cuiwei Co. and Yuyin Co. [1] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector led the market with an intraday increase approaching 2%, with stocks like Guotou Zhonglu and Pingtan Development hitting the daily limit up, and Muyuan Foods seeing an intraday rise of nearly 9% [3] - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, with its slaughtering and meat business revenue reaching 19.345 billion yuan, up 93.83% year-on-year [3] - The net profit of Muyuan Foods for the first half of 2025 was 10.790 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 952.92% year-on-year, with cash flow from operating activities at 17.351 billion yuan, up 12.13% year-on-year [3] - The company sold 46.91 million pigs in the first half of 2025, including 38.394 million market pigs and 8.291 million piglets [3] Group 2 - The beauty care, commercial retail, petroleum and chemical, and basic chemical sectors also showed strong performance in the market [4] - The electric equipment, machinery, automotive, and defense sectors performed relatively weakly in the morning session [5] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index hovering above 25,000 points [6] - Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, stocks like China Unicom, Alibaba Health, and China Hongqiao saw significant intraday gains [7] - The stock of Xie Rui Lin in the gold and jewelry sector experienced a dramatic fluctuation, with an intraday increase exceeding 50%, having tripled in value over three trading days [8] - Xie Rui Lin's board confirmed that they were unaware of any reasons for the unusual trading price and volume fluctuations, and the company's business operations remained normal [8] - Crystal International reported a more than 10% intraday increase, with balanced growth across its divisions, benefiting from increased penetration among major brand clients [9] - The company expanded its workforce by approximately 10,000 employees last year and achieved a revenue growth of 12.4% to 1.229 billion USD for the first half of 2025 [10] - Crystal International's gross profit rose by 13.7% to 243 million USD, with a slight increase in gross margin from 19.5% to 19.7% [10]

Core Insights - Lao Pu Gold reported a significant increase in sales performance for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 14.18 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 249% [2] - The adjusted net profit reached 2.35 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 291% [2] - The brand has established a strong presence in the luxury market, with an average sales performance of 459 million yuan per store in shopping malls, surpassing leading international luxury brands [2] Sales and Market Performance - Lao Pu Gold has entered 29 major commercial centers and operates 41 stores as of June 30 [2] - During the 618 shopping festival, the brand's Tmall flagship store achieved sales exceeding 1 billion yuan, becoming the first gold and jewelry brand to reach this milestone [2] - The overlap rate of Lao Pu Gold's consumers with those of top international luxury brands like Louis Vuitton, Hermes, Cartier, and Bulgari is nearly 80%, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards domestic high-end brands [2] Expansion and International Presence - The company has completed channel coverage in core cities, opening three new stores in Shanghai in the first half of the year, with a fourth store set to open in October [2] - Lao Pu Gold opened its first overseas store in Singapore's Marina Bay Sands shopping center in June, which has maintained high popularity similar to its domestic performance [2] - The overseas business revenue grew approximately 455.2% year-on-year, accounting for 12.9% of total revenue [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [11]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, which was below market expectations. The total retail sales reached 3.9 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 1.1 percentage points [5]. - Online retail sales and penetration rates have significantly increased due to enhanced subsidies from instant retail platforms. The online retail sales for the first seven months of 2025 grew by 9.2% year-on-year, surpassing the overall retail growth rate [5]. - The report highlights a divergence in domestic consumption performance, with sectors like instant retail benefiting significantly, while the restaurant sector continues to face pressure [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - July 2025 saw a 3.7% year-on-year increase in retail sales, lower than the expected 4.9%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.3% [5]. - The retail sales of goods in July reached 3.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [5]. Online and Offline Retail Trends - Online retail sales in July amounted to 959.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [5]. - The online penetration rate reached 24.8%, up from 23.7% in the previous year [5]. Consumer Goods and Services - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of daily consumer goods, with categories like communication and food seeing growth rates of 14.9% and 8.6% respectively [5]. - The restaurant sector's growth remains low, with July's revenue at 450.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of only 1.1% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on e-commerce and instant retail sectors, highlighting companies like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan as key players [5]. - It also suggests investing in quality gold and jewelry brands, as well as companies in the travel industry that are expected to benefit from the summer tourism season [5].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains bullish, with expectations of a prolonged bull market driven by increasing confidence among global and Chinese investors in the Chinese stock market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In July, the Chinese stock market outperformed globally, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index showing significant gains [2]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.9% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.8% in July, with the healthcare sector leading with a 22.8% increase [2]. - As of July 31, the forecasted PE for the Hang Seng Index was 11.3 times, close to the 10-year average, while the PB was 1.18 times, also near the historical average [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - In July, net inflows from southbound funds reached 1356.48 million HKD (approximately 1241.04 million RMB), marking a record high since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism [3]. - The proportion of international intermediaries' holdings increased to 43.8% as of July 31, up by 0.5 percentage points from June [3]. - Short selling accounted for 16.0% of total trading volume on the main board as of July 31, a decrease from June [3]. Group 3: Short-term Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for August indicates a potential for market fluctuations, focusing on interim report performances and price-to-earnings ratios [5]. - 54.1% of companies that released interim earnings forecasts reported positive surprises, particularly in finance, materials, and information technology sectors [5]. - The forecasted net profit growth for Hang Seng Index constituents is 6.8% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to June [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The technology sector is highlighted as a promising area for investment, particularly in AI-related industries, with expectations of a rebound post-earnings season [6][7]. - New consumption trends are emerging, with a focus on sectors such as trendy retail, outdoor activities, and innovative dining [7]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to maintain a positive medium-term outlook, although short-term volatility may present entry opportunities [7]. Group 5: Value Stock Dynamics - High-dividend central state-owned enterprises in sectors like finance, utilities, and energy remain attractive for allocation [8]. - The upcoming interim reports are anticipated to reveal opportunities in sectors likely to exceed expectations, particularly in gold and brokerage firms [8].

Group 1 - Recent trade negotiations between India and the US have stalled due to disagreements over tariffs and non-tariff barriers, with the US imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1][7] - The Indian government has expressed that the US's actions are "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and has indicated it will take necessary actions to protect national interests [1] - In response to the high tariffs, India has decided to suspend its plans to purchase US military equipment, including "Striker" armored vehicles and "Javelin" anti-tank missiles [2][5] Group 2 - The US had a trade deficit of approximately $45 billion with India last year, importing $87 billion worth of goods from India while exporting $42 billion worth of goods to India [7] - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the importance of supporting local manufacturing, stating that India must remain vigilant regarding its economic interests [7] - Indian businesses in the US are struggling due to the increased tariffs, with reports of significant declines in sales and profitability, particularly in the jewelry and grocery sectors [8][10] Group 3 - Modi held a phone conversation with Russian President Putin, reaffirming India's commitment to deepening strategic ties and inviting Putin to visit India later this year [11] - Discussions between India and Russia included cooperation in various sectors such as rare earth mining, industrial infrastructure, and aerospace technology [12] - Modi is expected to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which may influence India's diplomatic stance amid rising tensions with the US [14]

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market is experiencing significant growth, driven by changing consumption patterns and the emergence of new consumption models such as trendy toys, jewelry, and pet-related products [1][3][10] - L Catterton, the largest private equity firm in the global consumer goods sector, has invested over $37 billion and completed more than 300 investments in the consumer industry, focusing on notable Chinese brands [1][10] - The investment environment in China is considered favorable, with a large middle class and increasing consumer spending potential, despite the current low percentage of consumption in GDP [10][11] Investment Trends - The younger generations, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, exhibit strong consumption willingness, prioritizing emotional value over functional benefits [3][4] - Traditional consumption categories like liquor and tea are experiencing a decline, while sectors like dining and trendy products are thriving, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [4][10] - The investment strategy of L Catterton focuses on three main areas: consumer brands, consumer services, and consumer concepts, with a strong emphasis on high-quality domestic brands [8][10] Market Dynamics - Cities like Guangzhou and Chengdu are emerging as international consumption centers due to their industrial strengths and vibrant cultural scenes, respectively [6][10] - The collaboration between L Catterton and LVMH enhances the investment firm's ability to identify and support promising consumer brands through strategic resources and expertise [7][8] - The Chinese market is characterized by rapid innovation in business models, including the use of digitalization and AI in manufacturing and the growth of e-commerce and live-streaming platforms [11][12] Challenges and Opportunities - Foreign investment firms are encouraged to adopt a focused investment approach rather than a broad one, emphasizing the importance of industry expertise and value creation [12] - The potential for exit strategies is diversified, with over 50% of projects historically exiting through mergers and acquisitions, highlighting the importance of industry alignment [12]