Market Analysis - On February 26, 2026, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 187,000 yuan/ton and closed at 173,660 yuan/ton, with a 3.47% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 402,461 lots, and the open interest was 375,204 lots, down from 377,037 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is -3,540 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,451 lots, a change of -74 lots from the previous trading day [1]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 168,000 - 178,000 yuan/ton, a change of 11,250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 165,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 11,250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,390 US dollars/ton, a change of 140 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - In December 2025, China's total imports of lithium carbonate were about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The import volume of spodumene in December 2025 was about 766,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 19% [2]. - In December 2025, the import volume from Australia was 310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 27%, accounting for 40%. The import volume from Zimbabwe was 132,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39% and a month - on - month increase of 20%, accounting for 17%. The import volume from Nigeria was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59% and a month - on - month decrease of 13%, accounting for 10%. The import volume from South Africa was 109,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of about 109,000 tons [2]. - The spot inventory is 100,093 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,839 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,462 tons; the downstream inventory is 40,021 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,471 tons; other inventories are 41,690 tons, a month - on - month increase of 170 tons. The downstream inventory decreased, while the smelter and other inventories increased. The overall destocking pattern was maintained in February, and the downstream destocking accelerated [2]. Event Impact - The rise of lithium carbonate yesterday was mainly affected by the fermentation of the Zimbabwe lithium mine event. On February 25, the Zimbabwean Ministry of Mines announced an immediate halt to all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate, and the duration of the export suspension is uncertain. Zimbabwe accounts for about 10% of the global lithium carbonate supply. In 2025, it exported about 1.2 million tons of lithium ore to China, equivalent to about 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The impact of this event mainly depends on the duration of the ban. After the rectification, legal mines are still expected to resume exports. Considering the processing time of lithium concentrate and sea - freight transportation time, the impact on supply is expected to lag by about 3 months. Currently, the event's impact is mainly reflected in sentiment, and its impact on supply and demand remains to be observed [3]. Strategy - The current price is oscillating at a high level, mainly dominated by supply - side interference news, but the overall inventory is continuously being destocked, and the fundamentals support an upward trend. For unilateral trading, conduct short - term range operations, pay attention to inventory - end disturbances, and choose the opportunity to go long at low prices [4].

Market Analysis - On February 25, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 opened at 164,500 yuan/ton and closed at 166,480 yuan/ton, with a 3.40% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 322,727 lots, and the open interest was 377,037 lots, compared to 365,180 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is -7,230 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,525 lots, a change of -330 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 158,000 - 165,500 yuan/ton, a change of 9,750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 155,000 - 161,500 yuan/ton, also a change of 9,750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,250 US dollars/ton, a change of 140 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - On February 25, the Ministry of Mines in Zimbabwe announced an immediate suspension of all exports of raw ores and lithium concentrates (including in - transit goods) to strengthen mineral supervision and accountability. Only enterprises with valid mining rights and approved concentrators will be eligible for exports in the future, and agents and third - party traders are prohibited from exporting. In 2025, China imported about 1.2 million tons of lithium ore from Zimbabwe. This export ban is expected to have a strong short - term impact on lithium ore supply, but considering the high policy uncertainty in the region, the duration of the ban needs to be continuously monitored [2]. - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 102,932 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,531 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,920 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,436 tons; the downstream inventory is 44,492 tons, a month - on - month increase of 835 tons; and other inventories are 41,520 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,930 tons. The inventory continues the destocking trend, but the post - holiday inventory changes still need to be observed [2]. Core View - After the holiday, the demand side remains in a hot state, and whether the supply side can be quickly replenished will be the key to the market trend. Considering that lithium carbonate will still face a tight supply situation in the short term, it is expected that lithium carbonate will maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend in the short term [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4]

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of mining operations at CATL's Jiangxi Jianshawa mine is expected to impact lithium prices positively, as it is a significant source of lithium supply, leading to a surge in lithium stocks and prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of CATL's Mining Suspension - CATL confirmed the suspension of mining operations at its Jianshawa mine due to the expiration of its mining license, which is expected to affect the supply of lithium [2][3]. - The Jianshawa mine contributes approximately 10% of China's lithium carbonate production, with an annual capacity of around 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) [3][6]. - The suspension has led to a significant increase in lithium prices, with carbonate futures reaching over 80,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 20% increase in a short period [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the news, major lithium companies such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium saw their stock prices surge, indicating strong market sentiment [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the supply constraints may lead to increased production costs in the industry, as obtaining mining licenses has become more challenging [2][5]. - The overall lithium supply in 2023 is projected to be 1,047,800 tons LCE, a 34.8% increase from 2022, with lithium spodumene, lithium salt lakes, and lithium mica contributing 52%, 41%, and 7% respectively [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Operational Challenges - Other lithium companies are also facing mining license renewals, indicating that CATL's situation is not isolated, with similar challenges reported in Qinghai province [6][7]. - A significant lithium salt lake company is currently in the process of renewing its mining license, which is crucial for maintaining its production capabilities [6][7]. - The market is advised to remain cautious, as the recovery of high-cost overseas lithium mines may not align with short-term price fluctuations, potentially affecting future supply dynamics [5][6].