新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 津巴布韦锂矿遭禁运，碳酸锂震荡上行 市场分析 2026-02-25，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于164500元/吨，收于166480元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化3.40%。当日 成交量为322727手，持仓量为377037手，前一交易日持仓量365180手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-7230元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单38525手，较上个交易日变化-330手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价158000-165500元/吨，较前一交易日变化9750元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价155000-161500元/吨，较前一交易日变化9750元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2250美元/吨，较前一日变化140美元/吨。 SMM方面消息，2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口(含在途货物)，旨在加强矿产监管 与问责。未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资格，禁止代理及第三方贸易商出口。据SMM独家了 解，官方声明属实，原则上计划2027年禁止精矿出口；当前在津巴布韦当地拥有锂盐或硫酸锂生产产能的企业仍 可申请锂精矿出口许 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 2026-02-25，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于164500元/吨，收于166480元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化 3.40%。当日成交量为322727手，持仓量为377037手，前一交易日持仓量365180手，根据SMM现货报 价，目前基差为-7230元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单38525手，较上个交易日变化-330手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价158000-165500元/吨，较前一交易日变化9750元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价155000-161500元/吨，较前一交易日变化9750元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2250美元/吨，较 前一日变化140美元/吨。 SMM方面消息，2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口（含在途货物），旨在 加强矿产监管与问责。未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资格，禁止代理及第三方贸易 商出口。据SMM独家了解，官方声明属实，原则上计划2027年禁止精矿出口；当前在津巴布韦当地拥 有锂盐或硫酸锂生产产能的企业仍可申 ...

Market Overview - On January 20, the spot settlement price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 153,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 3,000 CNY from the previous working day, with increased spot transactions [1] - The settlement price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) was 142,000 CNY/ton, up 4,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - In the futures market, due to rumors of potential production halts at some mines in Jiangxi, lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract closing at 160,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 13,240 CNY from the previous working day, and an increase in open interest [1] Price Trends - The ICC lithium battery settlement prices on January 19 and January 20 showed the following changes: - Lithium concentrate remained at 2,030 CNY/ton - Battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 15.05 to 15.35 CNY/kg - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide increased from 13.8 to 14.2 CNY/kg - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased from 5.23 to 5.28 CNY/kg - Ternary materials remained at 19.7 CNY/kg - Square power battery cells remained at 0.335 CNY/Wh [2] Industry Insights - Current average price levels for lithium iron phosphate battery cells suggest that the terminal (mainly second-tier companies) can bear lithium carbonate prices around 156,000 CNY [4] - The lithium market is experiencing significant fluctuations primarily due to rumors of production halts in Jiangxi, although production remains normal for lithium salt manufacturers in the region [6] - The overall fundamentals of the lithium battery market remain strong, with even cost-sensitive sectors like energy storage able to accept current lithium prices, indicating a continuation of wide fluctuations in the short term [6] Import and Export Data - In December, China imported 23,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a month-on-month increase of 9%, with a cumulative import forecast of 243,000 tons for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [9] - In December, the shipment volume of lithium concentrate from the Hedland port in Australia was 168,500 tons, an increase of 8.99% from November, all shipped to China [9]

Market Overview - On December 23, the spot settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 105,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous working day [1] - The settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) was 87,600 CNY/ton, up by 800 CNY/ton from the previous working day [1] - Lithium carbonate futures continued to rise, with the main contract closing above 120,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 5,980 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1] Price Changes - The price of lithium concentrate rose from 1,320 CNY/ton to 1,360 CNY/ton, a 6% increase [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 10.4 CNY/kg to 10.5 CNY/kg, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose from 8.68 CNY/kg to 8.76 CNY/kg [2] - The average price level for lithium carbonate that downstream industries can bear is approximately 102,000 CNY/ton [4] Import and Export Data - In November, China imported 22,055 tons of lithium carbonate, a decrease of 8% month-on-month but an increase of 15% year-on-year [5] - Lithium hydroxide exports in November were 3,357 tons, a 17% increase from the previous month but a 39% decrease year-on-year [5] Market Sentiment - Approximately 80% of surveyed companies believe that the peak price for lithium carbonate futures this week (December 22-26) will be in the range of 110,000 to 120,000 CNY/ton, with only 19% expecting prices to exceed 120,000 CNY/ton [7] - The market sentiment is relatively optimistic, with recent performance exceeding expectations [7] Regulatory Changes - Starting December 23, the trading volume limits for non-futures company members or clients on various lithium carbonate futures contracts have been set to prevent excessive speculation [9] Industry Insights - The price gap for lithium carbonate has widened, with lithium salt manufacturers becoming increasingly cautious, leading some traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach [10] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the future, influenced by production adjustments and potential regulatory measures [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate industry is driven by factors such as anti - involution, mining rights and environmental protection rectification, and unexpected storage demand, leading to large fluctuations in spot and futures prices [2]. - Most surveyed enterprises maintain a high operating rate, and those without raw material channel advantages may be restricted by raw material procurement. If the market remains optimistic, enterprises plan to continue production during the Spring Festival [2]. - The trade point - price sales model can relieve the enterprise's capital turnover pressure and avoid price fluctuation risks, allowing enterprises to sell products as they are produced with low - level inventory [2]. - Although the current lithium carbonate price can cover production costs, enterprises do not want prices to skyrocket as it will intensify procurement competition and bring cost pressures after price corrections [2]. 3. Company - Specific Summaries A. A Enterprise (Wet - recycling enterprise) - It focuses on recycling lithium from waste lithium - iron - phosphate batteries, with 100,000 tons of wet - recycling of waste lithium - iron - phosphate batteries and 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate processing production lines. It has stopped mica - based lithium extraction due to intense competition and raw material scarcity [3]. - The monthly production capacity is 600 - 700 tons, with an annual capacity of 6000 - 7000 tons and an 80% operating rate. Product inventory is about 200 - 300 tons [3]. - It recycles 2000 - 3000 tons of raw materials monthly, with a 6:4 ratio of factory waste to battery recycling. It does not purchase salt - lake crude carbon due to high freight and narrow profit margins [3]. - It sells products mainly through trade channels and post - point - price methods (about 60% of sales), and has hedged next month's production [3]. B. B Enterprise (Lithium carbonate production enterprise) - It uses low - grade lithium ore and tailings to produce lithium - containing brine and produces electric carbon through a subcontracting model. It plans to launch a potassium - salt separation process in the future [5]. - The operating rate reaches 80% of the designed capacity, producing 10 - 15 tons of brine per day. It has stocked raw materials for 2 months and plans to continue production during the Spring Festival if the market is good [5]. - It sells products using the point - price model, with electric carbon at a discount of 800 - 1500 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. It does not hedge on its own to quickly recover funds and has about 100 tons of inventory [5]. C. C Enterprise (Lithium carbonate production enterprise) - It has a planned total capacity of 30,000 tons/year, with a 15,000 - ton/year production line built and a monthly output of 700 - 800 tons [8]. - It can use a small amount of mica ore mixed with lithium - spodumene or brine for lithium extraction. The switch between mica and spodumene production lines takes about one quarter [8]. - It mainly engages in subcontracting, with low self - owned product proportion due to raw material procurement difficulties. It sells products mainly through cooperation with traders, with a 100 - 200 - ton inventory level [8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing a predominantly positive trend, particularly in lithium carbonate futures, which are experiencing a strong upward movement despite some volatility in prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium carbonate futures opened at 97,740.0 yuan/ton, with intraday fluctuations reaching a high of 99,880.0 yuan and a low of 95,860.0 yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.56% [1] - The current market trend for lithium carbonate is characterized by a strong upward movement, indicating robust performance [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Chaos Tiancheng Futures indicates that high lithium battery demand and stable supply are maintaining a destocking trend, leading to a quick price increase after a brief consolidation, although market volatility remains a concern [1] - Galaxy Futures notes stable shipments of Australian lithium concentrate and optimistic outlooks from leading companies for next year, with December production data exceeding expectations, suggesting limited downside potential for prices [1] - Zhongtai Futures highlights marginal weakening in the recent fundamentals, but maintains that long-term lithium demand remains strong, providing significant price support, with increased market enthusiasm and capital inflow [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices fluctuating around 73,100 to 74,720 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.34% increase. However, the future market dynamics depend on the sustainability of demand post the "golden September and silver October" peak season [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate industry is undergoing a continuous destocking phase, driven by a robust demand growth that outpaces supply. This destocking is viewed as a temporary adjustment rather than a signal of industry recovery [1]. - Weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased to 136,800 tons, with the destocking rate slowing for three consecutive weeks. The downstream sector's pre-holiday stockpiling is nearing completion, leading to a stable basis with a price differential of -255 yuan/ton [2]. - The structural change in the market, with upstream destocking and proactive downstream restocking, indicates a positive growth rate in actual demand from downstream enterprises [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The demand side is expected to remain strong, particularly in consumer electronics and energy storage sectors, with the domestic energy storage market showing unexpected growth due to favorable capacity electricity price compensation [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have outlined a plan to accelerate the approval and review processes for mineral resource development projects, which may enhance the precision and effectiveness of investments in lithium carbonate projects [2]. - As October approaches, potential disruptions in supply due to mining companies entering the license renewal process may exert pressure on lithium carbonate futures prices, leading to a possible return to a more relaxed supply expectation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices showing fluctuations and a slight increase in trading activity [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium carbonate futures opened at 60,600 yuan/ton and reached a high of 62,100 yuan, with a closing increase of 1.68% [1] - Overall market inventory increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, while downstream inventory decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons [1][2] Group 2: Production and Supply - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons, with specific increases in spodumene, mica, and brine lithium production [2] - June production is expected to rise by 9.4% to 78,900 tons due to the resumption of operations by some companies [2] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Sentiment - The sentiment among traders is showing signs of improvement, with a continuation of bottom-fishing in the spot market [1] - The price of Australian lithium ore has slowed its decline, indicating resistance at the mining level [1] - The current price level is seen as a potential bottom, with increased volatility expected due to market speculation [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed mixed results, with lithium carbonate futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a peak of 62,540.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 2.19% [1] - Supply side analysis indicates a weekly production increase of 575 tons to 16,630 tons, while the total supply for May is expected to be lower than anticipated [1] - Demand for lithium carbonate is projected to see a slight increase in May, particularly from ternary and lithium iron phosphate sectors, while inventory levels have risen by 351 tons to 131,920 tons [1] Group 2 - Export data for April shows that lithium carbonate exports reached 734 tons, a month-on-month increase of 233.7%, but downstream replenishment in May has been relatively low, leading to cautious procurement attitudes [1] - The feasibility of joint production cuts or reduced warehouse deliveries for lithium carbonate is considered low due to the diverse raw material sources and significant cost differences [2] - The market is expected to maintain a slight oversupply in May, with attention needed on the digestion of high inventory levels, while new short positions are not recommended due to increased operational difficulty [2]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the current market conditions and trends in the mining and materials industry, particularly focusing on supply and demand dynamics since late February and early March [1][2]. Key Points - The market has been experiencing a weak oscillation, with a notable support level around 75,000, which has shown resistance to downward movement [1][4]. - Recent trading activity reflects a response to previous expectations, indicating a feedback loop between market sentiment and fundamental conditions [2][12]. - Current spot prices for materials, such as electric meal, are around 74,500, aligning with market trends [3]. - Supply and demand expectations have shifted, with indications of a potential oversupply beginning in March due to the resumption of production by major manufacturers [7][12]. - The demand side remains stable but lacks significant growth, with seasonal improvements noted in March [4][10]. - Inventory levels have been increasing, suggesting a potential weakening in demand despite stable order volumes [11][12]. Additional Insights - The cost structure for raw materials is undergoing adjustments, with integrated costs showing a downward trend, which may provide some relief to pricing pressures [5][6]. - The production capacity is expanding, with a notable increase in output and operational rates among major producers [8]. - The sentiment in the market is currently pessimistic, with expectations of further declines in prices, particularly if panic selling occurs [14][15]. - There is a suggestion for investors to consider options trading strategies to mitigate risks associated with current market volatility [15]. Conclusion - Overall, the market is characterized by a fragile balance between supply and demand, with increasing inventories and stable but uninspiring demand. The outlook remains cautious, with potential for further price declines if market conditions do not improve. Investors are advised to monitor developments closely and consider strategic trading options.