关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电、封面：图虫创意 行情变化： 12月23日 ， ICC电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）现货结算指导价格为 105000 元 /吨 ，较上一工作日 上 涨 1000 元 /吨 ；电池级氢氧化锂（56.5%粗颗粒）结算指导价格为 87600 元 /吨 ，较上一工作日 上涨 800 元 /吨 。 0 2 根据 ICC鑫椤资讯测算，以当前电芯平均价格水平来看，下游对于碳酸锂价格的承受水平约为 10.2 万元 左右 。 行业聚焦： 中国海关 ： 11月中国进口碳酸锂22055吨，环比减少8%，同比增长15%；11月中国氢氧化锂 出口量为3357吨，环比上月增加17%，同比减少39%。 锂电情绪指数： 0 4 期货方面： 12月23日，碳酸锂期货行情继续大涨，主力合约尾盘成功突破 120000 元 /吨 大关，较 上一交易日 上涨 5980 元 /吨 ，成交量受近月合约限仓影响有所下降，仓单则 增加 240 手 至 16651手。 ICC锂电结算指导价： | 品名 | 12月22日 | 12月23日 | 环比上涨 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate industry is driven by factors such as anti - involution, mining rights and environmental protection rectification, and unexpected storage demand, leading to large fluctuations in spot and futures prices [2]. - Most surveyed enterprises maintain a high operating rate, and those without raw material channel advantages may be restricted by raw material procurement. If the market remains optimistic, enterprises plan to continue production during the Spring Festival [2]. - The trade point - price sales model can relieve the enterprise's capital turnover pressure and avoid price fluctuation risks, allowing enterprises to sell products as they are produced with low - level inventory [2]. - Although the current lithium carbonate price can cover production costs, enterprises do not want prices to skyrocket as it will intensify procurement competition and bring cost pressures after price corrections [2]. 3. Company - Specific Summaries A. A Enterprise (Wet - recycling enterprise) - It focuses on recycling lithium from waste lithium - iron - phosphate batteries, with 100,000 tons of wet - recycling of waste lithium - iron - phosphate batteries and 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate processing production lines. It has stopped mica - based lithium extraction due to intense competition and raw material scarcity [3]. - The monthly production capacity is 600 - 700 tons, with an annual capacity of 6000 - 7000 tons and an 80% operating rate. Product inventory is about 200 - 300 tons [3]. - It recycles 2000 - 3000 tons of raw materials monthly, with a 6:4 ratio of factory waste to battery recycling. It does not purchase salt - lake crude carbon due to high freight and narrow profit margins [3]. - It sells products mainly through trade channels and post - point - price methods (about 60% of sales), and has hedged next month's production [3]. B. B Enterprise (Lithium carbonate production enterprise) - It uses low - grade lithium ore and tailings to produce lithium - containing brine and produces electric carbon through a subcontracting model. It plans to launch a potassium - salt separation process in the future [5]. - The operating rate reaches 80% of the designed capacity, producing 10 - 15 tons of brine per day. It has stocked raw materials for 2 months and plans to continue production during the Spring Festival if the market is good [5]. - It sells products using the point - price model, with electric carbon at a discount of 800 - 1500 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. It does not hedge on its own to quickly recover funds and has about 100 tons of inventory [5]. C. C Enterprise (Lithium carbonate production enterprise) - It has a planned total capacity of 30,000 tons/year, with a 15,000 - ton/year production line built and a monthly output of 700 - 800 tons [8]. - It can use a small amount of mica ore mixed with lithium - spodumene or brine for lithium extraction. The switch between mica and spodumene production lines takes about one quarter [8]. - It mainly engages in subcontracting, with low self - owned product proportion due to raw material procurement difficulties. It sells products mainly through cooperation with traders, with a 100 - 200 - ton inventory level [8].

银河期货指出，澳洲锂精矿发运稳定，行业会议上头部企业对明年乐观，12月排产数据超预期，供需矛 盾不突出，中美通话后市场情绪向好，资金涌入2605合约，短期情绪亢奋，下跌空间有限。 中泰期货分析称，近期基本面边际有走弱迹象，但中长期锂需求仍然向好对价格支撑较强，日内资金再 次涌入，市场情绪升温，短期碳酸锂以偏强震荡运行为主。 11月26日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，碳酸锂期货主力合约开盘报97740.0元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，碳酸锂主力最高触及99880.0元，下方探低95860.0元，涨幅达1.56%附 近。 目前来看，碳酸锂行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于碳酸锂后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 混沌天成期货表示，短期锂电需求高位，供应稳定，去库趋势维持，市场风险偏好提升，锂价短暂整理 后迅速拉涨。但市场关注度高，价格波动剧烈，宏观氛围变化或导致锂价急涨急跌，需注意风险控制。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices fluctuating around 73,100 to 74,720 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.34% increase. However, the future market dynamics depend on the sustainability of demand post the "golden September and silver October" peak season [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate industry is undergoing a continuous destocking phase, driven by a robust demand growth that outpaces supply. This destocking is viewed as a temporary adjustment rather than a signal of industry recovery [1]. - Weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased to 136,800 tons, with the destocking rate slowing for three consecutive weeks. The downstream sector's pre-holiday stockpiling is nearing completion, leading to a stable basis with a price differential of -255 yuan/ton [2]. - The structural change in the market, with upstream destocking and proactive downstream restocking, indicates a positive growth rate in actual demand from downstream enterprises [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The demand side is expected to remain strong, particularly in consumer electronics and energy storage sectors, with the domestic energy storage market showing unexpected growth due to favorable capacity electricity price compensation [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have outlined a plan to accelerate the approval and review processes for mineral resource development projects, which may enhance the precision and effectiveness of investments in lithium carbonate projects [2]. - As October approaches, potential disruptions in supply due to mining companies entering the license renewal process may exert pressure on lithium carbonate futures prices, leading to a possible return to a more relaxed supply expectation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices showing fluctuations and a slight increase in trading activity [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium carbonate futures opened at 60,600 yuan/ton and reached a high of 62,100 yuan, with a closing increase of 1.68% [1] - Overall market inventory increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, while downstream inventory decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons [1][2] Group 2: Production and Supply - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons, with specific increases in spodumene, mica, and brine lithium production [2] - June production is expected to rise by 9.4% to 78,900 tons due to the resumption of operations by some companies [2] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Sentiment - The sentiment among traders is showing signs of improvement, with a continuation of bottom-fishing in the spot market [1] - The price of Australian lithium ore has slowed its decline, indicating resistance at the mining level [1] - The current price level is seen as a potential bottom, with increased volatility expected due to market speculation [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed mixed results, with lithium carbonate futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a peak of 62,540.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 2.19% [1] - Supply side analysis indicates a weekly production increase of 575 tons to 16,630 tons, while the total supply for May is expected to be lower than anticipated [1] - Demand for lithium carbonate is projected to see a slight increase in May, particularly from ternary and lithium iron phosphate sectors, while inventory levels have risen by 351 tons to 131,920 tons [1] Group 2 - Export data for April shows that lithium carbonate exports reached 734 tons, a month-on-month increase of 233.7%, but downstream replenishment in May has been relatively low, leading to cautious procurement attitudes [1] - The feasibility of joint production cuts or reduced warehouse deliveries for lithium carbonate is considered low due to the diverse raw material sources and significant cost differences [2] - The market is expected to maintain a slight oversupply in May, with attention needed on the digestion of high inventory levels, while new short positions are not recommended due to increased operational difficulty [2]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the current market conditions and trends in the mining and materials industry, particularly focusing on supply and demand dynamics since late February and early March [1][2]. Key Points - The market has been experiencing a weak oscillation, with a notable support level around 75,000, which has shown resistance to downward movement [1][4]. - Recent trading activity reflects a response to previous expectations, indicating a feedback loop between market sentiment and fundamental conditions [2][12]. - Current spot prices for materials, such as electric meal, are around 74,500, aligning with market trends [3]. - Supply and demand expectations have shifted, with indications of a potential oversupply beginning in March due to the resumption of production by major manufacturers [7][12]. - The demand side remains stable but lacks significant growth, with seasonal improvements noted in March [4][10]. - Inventory levels have been increasing, suggesting a potential weakening in demand despite stable order volumes [11][12]. Additional Insights - The cost structure for raw materials is undergoing adjustments, with integrated costs showing a downward trend, which may provide some relief to pricing pressures [5][6]. - The production capacity is expanding, with a notable increase in output and operational rates among major producers [8]. - The sentiment in the market is currently pessimistic, with expectations of further declines in prices, particularly if panic selling occurs [14][15]. - There is a suggestion for investors to consider options trading strategies to mitigate risks associated with current market volatility [15]. Conclusion - Overall, the market is characterized by a fragile balance between supply and demand, with increasing inventories and stable but uninspiring demand. The outlook remains cautious, with potential for further price declines if market conditions do not improve. Investors are advised to monitor developments closely and consider strategic trading options.