9月29日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘绿。其中，碳酸锂期货主力合约开盘报73100.0元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，碳酸锂主力最高触及74720.0元，下方探低72360.0元，涨幅达1.34%附 近。 目前来看，碳酸锂行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于碳酸锂后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 创元期货表示，碳酸锂行业呈现连续去库态势，主要是因为在当前供需"双旺"的市场格局下，需求端的 增速更快。当前的去库态势，只是阶段性回调，并非行业回暖的信号。后市需关注"金九银十"旺季之后 的需求持续性，若需求边际走弱，从去库转为累库，碳酸锂期货的价格重心可能会逐步下移。 国泰君安期货指出，碳酸锂周度库存减少至13.68万吨，去库速度持续连续3周放缓，下游国庆备货接近 尾声，基差由强走平，升贴水报价-255元/吨，周环比持平，期货库存持续增长。但是需求侧预计持续 超预期，包括消费电子、储能侧的需求维持强劲。尤其是受容量电价补偿利好，国内储能市场超预期放 量。假期期间关注，碳酸锂矿权变更对项目复工和停产的影响，工信部等八部门发布的《有色金属行业 稳增长工作方案(2025-2026年)》中提到，通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices showing fluctuations and a slight increase in trading activity [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium carbonate futures opened at 60,600 yuan/ton and reached a high of 62,100 yuan, with a closing increase of 1.68% [1] - Overall market inventory increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, while downstream inventory decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons [1][2] Group 2: Production and Supply - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons, with specific increases in spodumene, mica, and brine lithium production [2] - June production is expected to rise by 9.4% to 78,900 tons due to the resumption of operations by some companies [2] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Sentiment - The sentiment among traders is showing signs of improvement, with a continuation of bottom-fishing in the spot market [1] - The price of Australian lithium ore has slowed its decline, indicating resistance at the mining level [1] - The current price level is seen as a potential bottom, with increased volatility expected due to market speculation [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed mixed results, with lithium carbonate futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a peak of 62,540.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 2.19% [1] - Supply side analysis indicates a weekly production increase of 575 tons to 16,630 tons, while the total supply for May is expected to be lower than anticipated [1] - Demand for lithium carbonate is projected to see a slight increase in May, particularly from ternary and lithium iron phosphate sectors, while inventory levels have risen by 351 tons to 131,920 tons [1] Group 2 - Export data for April shows that lithium carbonate exports reached 734 tons, a month-on-month increase of 233.7%, but downstream replenishment in May has been relatively low, leading to cautious procurement attitudes [1] - The feasibility of joint production cuts or reduced warehouse deliveries for lithium carbonate is considered low due to the diverse raw material sources and significant cost differences [2] - The market is expected to maintain a slight oversupply in May, with attention needed on the digestion of high inventory levels, while new short positions are not recommended due to increased operational difficulty [2]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the current market conditions and trends in the mining and materials industry, particularly focusing on supply and demand dynamics since late February and early March [1][2]. Key Points - The market has been experiencing a weak oscillation, with a notable support level around 75,000, which has shown resistance to downward movement [1][4]. - Recent trading activity reflects a response to previous expectations, indicating a feedback loop between market sentiment and fundamental conditions [2][12]. - Current spot prices for materials, such as electric meal, are around 74,500, aligning with market trends [3]. - Supply and demand expectations have shifted, with indications of a potential oversupply beginning in March due to the resumption of production by major manufacturers [7][12]. - The demand side remains stable but lacks significant growth, with seasonal improvements noted in March [4][10]. - Inventory levels have been increasing, suggesting a potential weakening in demand despite stable order volumes [11][12]. Additional Insights - The cost structure for raw materials is undergoing adjustments, with integrated costs showing a downward trend, which may provide some relief to pricing pressures [5][6]. - The production capacity is expanding, with a notable increase in output and operational rates among major producers [8]. - The sentiment in the market is currently pessimistic, with expectations of further declines in prices, particularly if panic selling occurs [14][15]. - There is a suggestion for investors to consider options trading strategies to mitigate risks associated with current market volatility [15]. Conclusion - Overall, the market is characterized by a fragile balance between supply and demand, with increasing inventories and stable but uninspiring demand. The outlook remains cautious, with potential for further price declines if market conditions do not improve. Investors are advised to monitor developments closely and consider strategic trading options.