中信建投（601066）期货分析师张维鑫表示，受长假期间国际大宗商品价格上涨影响，碳酸锂期价延续 了春节假期前的上涨趋势。此外，3月份以后，现货市场供需格局或进一步偏紧，该预期也支撑了碳酸 锂价格。 春节假期结束后，碳酸锂市场表现强势。2月26日，碳酸锂期货跳空高开，主力合约LC2605盘中最高触 及187700元/吨，涨幅一度超11%，随后涨幅收窄，当日报收173660元/吨，涨幅为3.47%。 业内人士认为，碳酸锂期价节后持续走强，是基本面和消息面共振的表现。 据华友钴业相关负责人介绍，此次津巴布韦相关政策主要是对违规出口的监管，公司的采矿证是当地矿 业部颁发的，目前还不能确定具体影响有多大。 雅化集团相关负责人也对记者表示，短期内，该政策对其公司业务会有一定影响，不过公司已经提前把 在津巴布韦生产的锂精矿全部发运出来了，整体影响相对有限。值得关注的是，雅化集团可以继续申请 出口，但需要按照出口许可流程补充相关资料，公司已经着手推进。 "从目前主流企业的反馈看，津巴布韦相关政策影响偏短期，且部分企业已有库存矿规划，预计整体影 响有限。"林嘉旎表示，津巴布韦相关政策主要是为了打击走私及促进锂资源的本土加工业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a significant price decline, with the main contract dropping over 5% to a new low since August 8, influenced by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream sectors and supply-side factors affecting prices [1][4]. Supply Side Summary - Lithium carbonate prices continue to decrease, with battery-grade prices at 79,600-83,600 CNY/ton and industrial-grade prices at 78,700-79,900 CNY/ton, both down by 100 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The overall supply-demand balance shows improvement, with reduced inventory and production, but uncertainties remain regarding the approval of mining licenses and operational status of mines [2][5]. - Recent data indicates a weekly lithium carbonate production decrease of 842 tons to 19,138 tons, while total inventory stands at 141,543 tons [2]. Demand Side Summary - The market is currently in the traditional peak season ("Golden September, Silver October"), providing some rigid support for demand, although purchasing activity has slowed as buyers await further price declines [3][4]. - Downstream production is expected to maintain growth in September, but the overall purchasing sentiment is cautious due to previous stockpiling [3]. Import and Export Summary - In July, China's lithium carbonate imports totaled approximately 13,845 tons, down 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year, with an average import price of about 9,987 USD/ton [3]. - Chile and Argentina remain the primary sources of lithium carbonate imports, with significant reductions in import volumes from both countries [3]. Market Outlook Summary - Analysts suggest that despite the recent price drop, there may still be upward potential for lithium carbonate prices, driven by supply-side disruptions and ongoing demand support [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with a price range forecasted between 75,000 and 82,000 CNY/ton, as participants adjust to changing market conditions [5].