1. Report Title and Period - The report is "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report 2026.02.02 - 2026.02.06", focusing on the carbonate lithium market [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a wide - range shock stage after the high - price collapse. The core contradiction lies in the game between the short - term domestic supply contraction expectation and the long - term import increment and inventory accumulation expectation. Pre - holiday capital flight amplifies price fluctuations, and the weakening spot price and high warehouse receipt inventory put pressure on the market, with overall weak sentiment. It is expected that the high - volatility of the market will continue in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with prices seeking direction in the range of 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and post - holiday import arrivals and downstream resumption of work need to be closely monitored [3] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: Carbonate lithium futures prices dropped 10.31% week - on - week to 132,920 yuan/ton. Battery - grade carbonate lithium spot prices fell 13.23% week - on - week to 138,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade carbonate lithium spot prices dropped 13.15% to 136,000 yuan/ton. Hydroxide lithium spot prices also declined, with the price of electric - carbon (coarse - grained) down 6.13% to 145,500 yuan/ton, electric - carbon (fine powder) down 5.93% to 150,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade down 6.35% to 140,200 yuan/ton [3][5] - **Premium and Discount Changes**: The premium and discount of various raw materials and enterprises have changed. For example, the premium of辉石料 increased by 250 yuan/ton, and that of Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. increased by 400 yuan/ton [8] 4.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals 4.2.1 Supply - **Carbonate Lithium Production**: The domestic carbonate lithium capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 87.14%, but the hydroxide lithium capacity utilization rate decreased 5.41% week - on - week to 35%. Policy disturbances in Jiangxi mica mines and planned overhauls in some lithium salt plants strengthened the market's expectation of supply contraction in February [3] 4.2.2 Demand - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream demand shows structural support, with the operating rate of energy - storage battery cells rising. However, due to the seasonal slowdown during the Spring Festival, the downstream production plan for February is expected to decline month - on - month, and the procurement of high - price raw materials is cautious [3] 4.2.3 Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The export volume from Chile increased significantly in January, and the market expects the import volume in March to reach a new high, which has led to concerns about inventory accumulation during the peak season and suppressed prices [3] - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The transportation costs from most African countries remained stable, with only the container transportation cost from Nigeria increasing by 6.67% week - on - week [29] 4.2.4 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased 10.27% week - on - week to 33,777 lots. Warehouses such as COSCO Shipping Nanchang Warehouse and JF Shanghai Warehouse had significant increases, intensifying inventory pressure [3][42] 4.2.5 Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The raw material cost decreased in line with the lithium price. The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate/mica decreased 13.07%/12.32% week - on - week. The profit of the externally purchased lithium mica route shrank 29.8% to 5,830 yuan/ton, while the externally purchased lithium concentrate route remained in a loss state [3] 4.3 Lithium Battery Fundamentals - The report also covers the market conditions, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of lithium battery materials, as well as the production, sales, and other key data of new energy vehicles, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [45]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the weakening of macro - sentiment and the chain reaction of liquidity, the lithium carbonate price has experienced a huge shock. In the short term, the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand is basically completed, and the pre - holiday market may be dull. The focus is on the post - holiday situation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 134,500, down 9,500; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 131,000, down 9,500 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 1,880, down 10; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 2,875, down 125; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 4,375, down 175; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) average price is 13,000, down 650; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) average price is 13,900, down 900 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 49,770, down 2,305; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 199,000, down 2,500; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 173,500, down 3,000; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 175,500, down 3,000 [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,580, down 9,640; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 780, down 500; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1,200, down 920 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 105,463, down 2,019; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 18,356, down 647; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 43,657, up 3,058; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,450, down 4,430; the registered warrants (daily, tons) is 33,777, down 10 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 138,350, and the profit is - 5,715; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 136,032, and the profit is - 6,691 [3] Policy and Market News - Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a preferential tariff rate of 6.1% [3] - From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export refund rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; from January 1, 2027, the VAT export refund for battery products will be cancelled [3]

Price Movement - The main contract for lithium carbonate experienced a weak performance this week, opening at 146,000 CNY/ton and closing at 132,920 CNY/ton, a weekly decline of 10.31% [2][7] - The price drop is driven by relaxed supply-demand expectations, reduced pre-holiday demand, tightening regulations and funding, and negative macro sentiment [2][7] - The market is characterized by an "upstream reluctance to sell and downstream low-price procurement" dynamic, with upstream lithium salt manufacturers showing a strong price support sentiment despite the price drop [2][7] Supply Side - According to SMM statistics, the weekly total production of lithium carbonate was 20,744 tons, down from 21,569 tons the previous week [3][8] - Specific production figures include spodumene at 12,454 tons (down from 13,244 tons), mica at 2,922 tons (up from 2,832 tons), salt lake at 3,130 tons (down from 3,205 tons), and recycling at 3,130 tons (down from 3,205 tons) [3][8] - Nearing the Spring Festival, some lithium salt manufacturers are undergoing maintenance or holiday breaks, which, combined with fewer days in February, impacts actual domestic supply [3][8] Demand Side - Data from Baichuan shows that the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.91% month-on-month, while ternary materials increased by 2.89% [3][8] - Other materials saw significant fluctuations: lithium cobalt oxide down by 19.81%, manganese lithium up by 14.40%, and lithium hexafluorophosphate down by 16.08% [3][8] - February is traditionally a low-demand season, and while there is optimism for long-term energy storage demand, short-term procurement demand is slowing [3][8] Inventory - Current spot inventory stands at 105,463 tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons from the previous period [4][8] - Smelter inventory is at 18,356 tons (down by 647 tons), while downstream inventory is at 43,657 tons (up by 3,058 tons), and other inventory is at 43,450 tons (down by 4,430 tons) [4][8] Strategy - Given the significant price volatility of lithium carbonate and the approaching Spring Festival, the focus should be on managing position risks, with a recommendation for short-term range trading [9] - If the price retracement is substantial, there may be opportunities to consider buying on dips after the holiday [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - On February 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 145,800 yuan/ton and closed at 132,780 yuan/ton, with a -10.68% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 531,724 lots, and the open interest was 329,777 lots, down from 359,912 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is 8,540 yuan/ton [1]. - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 9,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the price of 6% lithium concentrate decreased by 70 US dollars/ton. The sharp decline in lithium carbonate is due to multiple factors such as regulatory strengthening leading to capital outflows, weakening demand after pre - holiday stocking, macro - sentiment drag, and loose supply expectations [2]. - The downstream manufacturers' pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, the procurement rhythm has slowed down significantly, and the spot trading has become dull. The expected decline in both supply and demand weakens price support. The resumption of production of Brazil's Sigma lithium mine this week has alleviated the supply shortage expectation to some extent [2]. - The total spot inventory is 105,463 tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons compared to the previous period. The total weekly output of lithium carbonate is 20,744 tons, a decrease of 825 tons compared to the previous period [3]. 3. Strategy - Given the large price fluctuations of lithium carbonate and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to position risks. Short - term range trading is the main strategy. If the callback is too large, consider going long at low prices after the holiday [4]. - Unilateral: Short - term range trading; if the callback is large, consider going long at low prices. Options, inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not provided [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from nearly 180,000 CNY/ton to below 150,000 CNY/ton, with market volatility attributed to futures market dynamics and regulatory measures [1][2]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices peaked at 182,200 CNY/ton on January 26, 2026, before declining to below 150,000 CNY/ton by February 4, marking an 18% decrease [1]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate also fell from 189,400 CNY/ton to 147,200 CNY/ton during the same period, with multiple trading halts observed [1]. Market Influences - The recent price drop is largely influenced by macroeconomic factors and regulatory policies, with a notable correlation between precious and base metals affecting the lithium carbonate market [2]. - Regulatory measures from the Guangxi Futures Exchange aimed at curbing speculative trading have contributed to the decline in prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term price pressures, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing destocking trends and anticipated post-holiday replenishment in demand [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the lithium carbonate market will continue to experience destocking through the first half of 2026, with potential price recovery following the Chinese New Year [3]. Production and Cost Considerations - The reasonable price for lithium carbonate is primarily determined by production costs, which include lithium ore prices, processing fees, and operational costs [4]. - For producers with their own mines, profit margins remain stable even amid price fluctuations, as long-term contracts often mitigate the impact of market volatility [4][5]. Industry Sentiment - There is a divergence of opinions among industry participants regarding the future price trajectory of lithium carbonate, with some expecting a rebound due to strong underlying demand [3][4]. - The current regulatory environment and high prices have led to increased production expectations from overseas mines, potentially dampening upward price momentum [3].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from nearly 180,000 yuan/ton to below 150,000 yuan/ton since late January, raising market concerns about the underlying causes of these changes [2][3][4]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices have seen a continuous decline over the past seven trading days, with a peak of 182,200 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, followed by a drop of 18% to below 150,000 yuan/ton by February 4 [3][4]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate also fell from 189,400 yuan/ton to 147,200 yuan/ton during the same period, with multiple trading halts observed [3][4]. Market Influences - The recent decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to macroeconomic factors and policy influences, including the interlinked movements of precious and base metals, which have created a weak market atmosphere [4][5]. - Regulatory measures by the Guangxi Futures Exchange, such as increasing margin requirements and limiting positions, have effectively curbed speculative trading, contributing to the price drop [4][5]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest a continuation of inventory reduction and increased demand for energy storage, which may support price recovery [5][6]. - Analysts expect that after the Spring Festival, there will be a concentrated replenishment of inventory by downstream companies, potentially leading to a rebound in prices [5][6]. Production and Cost Considerations - The reasonable price of lithium carbonate is primarily determined by production costs, which include lithium ore prices, processing fees, and labor costs. A gross profit margin of 5% to 10% is considered satisfactory for production companies [6]. - Companies with their own mines can achieve higher profits during price increases, while prices above 100,000 yuan/ton may not be economically viable for energy storage projects [6].

Market Overview - As of February 4, the domestic lithium carbonate market is stable, with the battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) spot settlement price at 151,500 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. There is an increase in downstream inquiries, and sellers are showing a reluctance to sell at lower prices [1] - The battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) settlement price is also stable at 152,000 CNY/ton [1] - In the futures market, lithium carbonate futures prices have rebounded slightly, with the main contract closing at 147,220 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,920 CNY from the previous working day, and a slight recovery in open interest [1] ICC Lithium Battery Settlement Prices - As of February 4, the settlement prices for various lithium products are as follows: - Lithium concentrate: 2,030 CNY/ton - Battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%): 151,500 CNY/ton - Lithium hydroxide (56.5%): 152,000 CNY/ton - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): 5.24 CNY/kg - NCM materials: 20.65 CNY/kg - Prismatic energy storage cells (lithium iron phosphate): 0.375 CNY/Wh [2] Industry Focus - On February 3, Tianqi Lithium's board approved a proposal to selectively dispose of part of its equity in SQM, with a maximum of 3,565,970 shares (not exceeding 1.25% of SQM's total shares) [5] Company Insights - Current average price levels for energy storage cells suggest that second-tier companies can withstand lithium carbonate prices around 154,000 CNY [4] - Despite a general decline in lithium battery and cathode material production in February, this is largely within expectations. The reduction in lithium carbonate production is comparable to that of lithium iron phosphate, indicating that the tight balance in the market remains unchanged. Short-term upward momentum appears insufficient, while downward demand support is relatively strong. It is expected that lithium carbonate prices will continue to fluctuate between 140,000 and 160,000 CNY before the Spring Festival, with a focus on downstream companies' restocking after the holiday [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The current market is in a strong unilateral upward trend driven by news and expectations. The core contradiction lies in the intense game between the supply side (contraction expectation under policy disturbances) and the demand side (short - term stocking and export expectations vs. weak terminal data). The futures price has rapidly broken through under the push of funds, but the spot price has difficulty following up, with a deep basis discount, cost - line suppression, and inventory accumulation, all indicating insufficient fundamental support and increasing high - level volatility risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 8.16% week - on - week to 169,000 yuan/ton, and the main futures contract closing price soared by 24.16% week - on - week to 181,520 yuan/ton. The prices of various lithium salts such as lithium hydroxide also showed varying degrees of increase [2][5] - **Lithium Salt Premium Changes**: Different raw material sources and enterprises have different premium changes. For example, the premium of the pyroxene raw material increased by 200 yuan, while the premium of the mica raw material decreased by 100 yuan [8] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **China's Lithium Carbonate Production**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remains at a high level of 87.14%, but the policies of Jiangxi mica mines and overseas mines continuously disturb the market, forming a supply contraction expectation [2] - **Production in Different Regions and from Different Raw Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Mid - and Down - stream Consumption**: Downstream is supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking and the potential "rush to export" effect, but the year - on - year decline in retail sales of terminal new energy vehicles is a concern, showing a contradiction between "not off - season in the off - season" and long - term weakness [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The available inventory of port lithium ore traders increased by 38.41% week - on - week to 19.1 million tons, indicating sufficient import raw material supply. The adjustment expectation of export policies may stimulate short - term export demand [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation and Cost**: The freight rates from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria for both bulk and container transportation remained unchanged this week [28] - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Seasonal Changes in Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased by 698 to 28,156, with some warehouses showing significant inventory increases, such as the Jiangsu Benniu Port warehouse increasing by 21.95% [41] Cost and Profit - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 14.81% week - on - week to 181,525 yuan/ton, which is the same as the futures price, with a production profit of - 12,525 yuan/ton. The profit of the mica route narrowed by 76.41% week - on - week to 1,689 yuan/ton [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - **Cathode Material Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Cathode Material Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - **Lithium Battery Materials and Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - **Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Other Important Data**: Not detailed in the provided content

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant volatility due to supply-side disruptions and renewed concerns about supply stability, particularly related to the uncertain resumption of the Ningde Times lithium mine [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The resumption of the Ningde Times Jiangxi mine remains uncertain, leading to market speculation about supply stability [1]. - Recent policy changes, including a reduction in export tax rebates for battery products, are expected to drive short-term demand for lithium carbonate as companies rush to export [2]. - The supply side is tightening, with the Ningde Times mine's production halt since August 2025 and the cancellation of mining rights in Jiangxi, contributing to increased monthly supply gaps [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by high sensitivity to sentiment, with recent price fluctuations reflecting speculative trading behavior [1]. - Despite recent price drops, downstream demand for replenishment has increased, particularly as prices stabilize at lower levels [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions indicate a tendency for prices to rise rather than fall, supported by low inventory levels among downstream companies and speculative demand [2]. Group 3: Regulatory and Risk Management Measures - The trading environment for lithium carbonate futures has prompted regulatory adjustments, including changes to trading fees and margin requirements to manage volatility [3]. - The futures exchange has implemented measures to adjust the price fluctuation limits and margin standards to mitigate risks associated with speculative trading [3].

Core Viewpoint - On January 16, lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract 2605 dropping by 8.99% to 146,200 yuan per ton, indicating a notable market correction [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The recent price drop in lithium carbonate is attributed to a decrease in January's new energy vehicle sales data, accelerated overseas mine supply shipments, and a retreat of speculative trading sentiment [1] - Prior to this decline, lithium carbonate prices had risen due to short-term supply disruptions and sustained growth in downstream demand, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The core logic behind the price fluctuations revolves around changes in the fundamental market conditions, emphasizing the importance of supply and demand factors in the lithium carbonate market [1]