伴随着碳酸锂价格的波动，A股市场锂矿概念股也经历了"过山车"走势。11月24日，表征锂矿概念股走势的万得锂矿概念指数大跌4.93%，为连续第二个交易日下 跌，当天该指数成份股中，国城矿业、大中矿业、融捷股份、盛新锂能等多股跌停。上周五，万得锂矿概念指数也经历了一次暴跌，当天该指数跌幅高达9.67%， 相关概念股跌停声一片。不过，在此之前，A股市场的锂矿概念股也曾涨势凌厉，在今年5月至10月期间，万得锂矿概念指数曾连续6个月上涨。 对于碳酸锂相关话题，盐湖股份日前在互动易平台表示，目前，4万吨锂盐项目整体运行平稳，效能提升态势良好，日产量达60吨—70吨，纯度稳定在99.7%以上， 装置连续无故障运行。公司本年度碳酸锂生产计划为3000吨，从当前进展来看，该目标有望超额完成。 日前，碳酸锂期货价格在突破10万元/吨后又连续大幅下跌。碳酸锂价格的波动也传导至A股市场，相关概念股的走势也经历一轮"过山车"。 有专家在接受证券时报记者采访时指出，从中长期视角来看，2026年全球锂资源项目仍处高速释放周期，但储能有望接棒新能源汽车成为碳酸锂第二增长曲线，整 体带动全球锂资源过剩幅度预期收窄，碳酸锂价格中枢有望维持坚挺。 ...

一德期货有限公司发布的研报显示，全球范围内碳酸锂资源端有了一定程度的出清，叠加消费端的超预期增速，碳酸锂6 万元/吨附近的长期底部已经有效形成。 产业链企业积极把握机遇期 电池级碳酸锂现货价格在过去5年经历了"过山车"式行情。 根据Wind数据，电池级碳酸锂价格从2020年10月份的3.996万元/吨一路上涨，在2022年11月份触及历史高位56.76万元/吨， 之后经历了长达2年多的"跌跌不休"，于今年6月份触及低位5.99万元/吨，此后震荡回升。 碳酸锂价格为何"大起大落"？李攀分析："由于锂资源开发需要3年至5年的长周期，而下游储能电池和动力电池产能扩张 较快，供需周期错配，引起价格波动。另外，产业链各环节的库存调整行为放大了价格波动。在价格上涨期，下游企业倾向于 增加库存，推动价格进一步上涨；而在价格下跌期，主动去库存行为则加剧价格下滑。" 本报记者 丁蓉 Wind数据显示，11月11日，电池级碳酸锂现货价格报8.24万元/吨，较前一日上涨1590元/吨，较今年6月份触及的低位5.99 万元/吨上涨37.59%。 经历了深度调整后，碳酸锂市场迎来强势反弹。上海钢联电子商务股份有限公司新能源事业部锂业分 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that on September 1st, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures declined, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The spot market had fair transactions, and the basis premium widened. In terms of cost, the price of lithium pegmatite concentrate rose, while mica prices fell. On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production slightly decreased, with little change in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. Downstream demand showed an increase in the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials last week, an increase in the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate in September, and an increase in the production of power batteries last week. Terminal demand saw a continued year - on - year growth rate but a month - on - month decline in new energy vehicle sales in July, average 3C shipments, and an increase in the production scheduling of energy - storage batteries in September. Inventory showed a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and social inventory, with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and other sectors being tight. Overall, with good profits, high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and the reduction of social inventory, both short - term supply and demand are strengthening. The short - term fundamentals have little change, and the market is still easily influenced by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate within a range. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, and when holding positions, appropriate options should be bought for protection, or straddle options can be bought. [2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 1st, 2025, compared with August 29th, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all decreased, with decreases ranging from 1,460 to 1,700 yuan. The overall closing price decreased by 1,620 yuan. [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 540,295 lots (+50,237), and the open interest was 339,133 lots (-7,472). [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 31,197 tons (+1,310). The SMM lithium carbonate inventory also showed certain changes, with a decrease of 407 tons in the total inventory compared with the previous week. [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) increased by 320 yuan. The price spreads between different grades of lithium compounds also changed, such as the battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate spread increasing by 1,050 yuan. [3] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of lithium pegmatite concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 4 US dollars per ton, while the prices of various types of mica decreased. [3] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and some types of electrolytes remained stable or decreased slightly, while the prices of some ternary precursors increased slightly. [3] Company News On September 1st, Tianqi Lithium (002460) stated in its 2025 semi - annual performance briefing that it has completed the industrialization preparations for lithium sulfide, a core raw material for next - generation all - solid - state batteries. The company's 50 - ton lithium sulfide pilot project has started construction in Meishan, Sichuan, using self - developed new technologies and equipment with low - risk and rapid mass - production capabilities. [3] Market Analysis - **Cost**: The price of lithium pegmatite concentrate rose, but mica prices fell. [3] - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate slightly decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials changed little. [3] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed a continued year - on - year growth rate but a month - on - month decline in new energy vehicle sales in July, average 3C shipments, and an increase in the production scheduling of energy - storage batteries in September. [3] - **Inventory**: Registered warehouse receipts and social inventory decreased, with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and other sectors being tight. [3] Investment Strategy It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, and when holding positions, appropriate options should be bought for protection, or straddle options can be bought. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a significant price decline, with the main contract dropping over 5% to a new low since August 8, influenced by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream sectors and supply-side factors affecting prices [1][4]. Supply Side Summary - Lithium carbonate prices continue to decrease, with battery-grade prices at 79,600-83,600 CNY/ton and industrial-grade prices at 78,700-79,900 CNY/ton, both down by 100 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The overall supply-demand balance shows improvement, with reduced inventory and production, but uncertainties remain regarding the approval of mining licenses and operational status of mines [2][5]. - Recent data indicates a weekly lithium carbonate production decrease of 842 tons to 19,138 tons, while total inventory stands at 141,543 tons [2]. Demand Side Summary - The market is currently in the traditional peak season ("Golden September, Silver October"), providing some rigid support for demand, although purchasing activity has slowed as buyers await further price declines [3][4]. - Downstream production is expected to maintain growth in September, but the overall purchasing sentiment is cautious due to previous stockpiling [3]. Import and Export Summary - In July, China's lithium carbonate imports totaled approximately 13,845 tons, down 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year, with an average import price of about 9,987 USD/ton [3]. - Chile and Argentina remain the primary sources of lithium carbonate imports, with significant reductions in import volumes from both countries [3]. Market Outlook Summary - Analysts suggest that despite the recent price drop, there may still be upward potential for lithium carbonate prices, driven by supply-side disruptions and ongoing demand support [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with a price range forecasted between 75,000 and 82,000 CNY/ton, as participants adjust to changing market conditions [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - Lithium carbonate prices have shown a fluctuating pattern, with the main futures contract closing at 79,000 yuan/ton on August 22, down 4.41% for the day and 9.14% for the week, reflecting a decrease of 7,940 yuan [1][2] - The average daily trading volume for lithium carbonate futures decreased by 11% week-on-week to 1.18 million contracts, while the average daily open interest remained stable at 850,000 contracts, indicating sustained market activity despite price fluctuations [2] Group 2: Supply and Production Insights - Despite concerns over supply disruptions, the overall supply of lithium carbonate remains ample, with the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's lithium division noting that the market fundamentals have not changed significantly [2][3] - In July, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.2% month-on-month to approximately 73,000 tons, while lithium salt production equivalent to lithium carbonate (LCE) rose by 2.0% to about 103,000 tons [3] Group 3: Company Developments - Dazhong Mining announced plans for its Hunan Jijieshan lithium mine, with a projected production of 20,000 tons set to commence in 2026, following the completion of necessary mining permit applications [4] - Cangge Mining reported that its mining license expired on August 9, but it is currently undergoing substantive review by the Ministry of Natural Resources, with plans to maintain its annual production target of 11,000 tons [5] - Yichun Silver Lithium is set to resume operations after a maintenance period, with an expected supply increase of up to 1,000 tons per month, although this is considered limited in the short term [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - On August 20, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. The physical market saw rigid - demand procurement, and the basis changed from discount to premium. In the short - term, both supply and demand are strengthening, with the situation at the Jiangxi mine end remaining active, and the short - term fundamentals showing little change. It is necessary to guard against the decline of the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3]. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market Data - **Prices**: On August 20, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts and the overall closing price of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to August 19, with declines ranging from 6,540 to 6,560 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 951 dollars/ton, down 27 dollars/ton from the previous day; the average prices of various lithium - containing raw materials such as lithium mica also decreased [3]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots compared to August 19. The open interest was 395,102 lots, a decrease of 18,995 lots [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 24,045 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to August 19 [3]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis showed various changes. For example, the near - month - consecutive - one spread was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; the basis changed from a discount to a premium, increasing by 6,560 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - In June, the domestic mobile phone shipments were 22.598 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [3]. - Charger Metals announced the inferred mineral resource estimate (MRE) of the Medcalf deposit in its Lake Johnston project in South Australia. The Medcalf deposit has an inferred mineral resource of 8.2 million tons with a lithium oxide (Li₂O) grade of 1.0% and a cut - off grade of 0.5%. The Medcalf West exploration area is expected to have a resource of 3 - 5 million tons with a Li₂O grade of 1.0% - 1.1%, and the mineralization in both areas is not closed at depth [3]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production increased. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica decreased [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 24,045 tons (an increase of 30 tons). The social inventory situation was that smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors increased inventory [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250821: Fluctuations Amplify Again, Protect Positions [2] - Report Date: August 21, 2025 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures hit the daily limit down. The spot market had rigid - demand purchases, and the basis changed from discount to premium. The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate and mica decreased. Last week, the production of carbonate lithium, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary materials increased. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased. The profit margin expanded, production and downstream demand both rose, and social inventory decreased. Short - term supply and demand both strengthened, and the situation in the Jiangxi mining end remained active. The short - term fundamentals changed little. It is necessary to guard against the decline of the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the price of carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Prices**: On August 20, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of carbonate lithium futures decreased compared to August 19, with a decrease of about 6,500 - 6,560 yuan/ton. The average closing price also decreased by 6,560 yuan/ton [3] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of carbonate lithium futures on August 20 was 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots compared to August 19. The open interest was 395,102 lots, a decrease of 18,995 lots [3] - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipt inventory on August 20 was 24,045 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to August 19 [3] - **Spreads**: The basis changed from - 1,840 yuan/ton on August 19 to 4,720 yuan/ton on August 20, an increase of 6,560 yuan/ton. The near - month - consecutive - one spread was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to August 19 [3] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) on August 20 was 951 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton compared to August 19. The average price of lithium mica decreased, and the average price of lithium phosphate aluminum stone also decreased [3] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium remained unchanged on August 20 compared to August 19. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide also remained unchanged [3] - **Other Product Prices**: The average prices of some lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide remained stable or had small changes [3] 3.3 Industry News - In June, the domestic mobile phone shipments were 22.598 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [3] - Charger Metals announced the Measured Mineral Resources Estimate (MRE) of the Medcalf deposit in its Lake Johnston project in South Australia. The inferred mineral resources of the Medcalf deposit are 8.2 million tons, with a lithium oxide (Li₂O) grade of 1.0% and a cut - off grade of 0.5%. The Medcalf West exploration area is expected to have resources between 3 - 5 million tons, with a lithium oxide grade of 1.0% - 1.1%. The mineralization of both areas is not closed at depth [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply**: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium increased [3] - **Demand**: The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3] - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipt inventory increased by 430 tons to 24,045 tons. The social inventory situation was that smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors increased inventory [3]

Group 1 - On August 20, the domestic lithium carbonate futures market experienced significant volatility, with the main contract closing at 80,980 yuan/ton, a decline of 8%, and all contracts hitting the limit down [1] - The A-share lithium mining sector also saw a decline, with companies such as Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ), Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) all reporting drops [1] - The futures market opened sharply lower on August 23, influenced by rumors regarding the transportation of Australian lithium concentrate to China and production disruptions at the Jiangxi mines [3] Group 2 - Jiangte Electric announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Yichun Yinli will resume production soon after a comprehensive equipment overhaul on July 25 [2] - A notable incident involved an investor who shorted lithium carbonate, resulting in a loss of over 16 million yuan within three trading days due to insufficient liquidity and subsequent forced liquidation by the futures company [5][6] - Market sentiment remains pessimistic despite the ongoing demand peak for lithium carbonate, with short-term price fluctuations driven by emotional responses rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced fluctuations due to supply concerns, particularly following production halts by major companies, but the long-term outlook suggests a supply surplus will limit further price increases [1] Price Movements - As of August 19, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is 82,733 yuan/ton, reflecting a 16% increase from the beginning of the month and a 28.27% increase month-over-month [1] - The industrial-grade lithium carbonate benchmark price stands at 81,166 yuan/ton, showing a 15.46% increase from the start of the month and a 28.5% increase month-over-month [1] Supply Chain Disruptions - Recent production halts at CATL's mining operations in Jiangxi due to expired mining permits have raised concerns about supply tightening, contributing to a significant price surge [1] - Additionally, Albemarle's lithium processing plant in La Negra, Chile, faced temporary shutdowns due to an acid pipeline explosion, further exacerbating supply issues and stimulating price increases [1] Market Outlook - Despite short-term price volatility driven by supply-side disruptions, analysts believe that the fundamental market condition of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, indicating limited potential for further price increases in the long term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, driven by supply disruptions and strong demand in the energy storage sector [2][3] - As of August 18, the lithium carbonate futures contract for September reached a peak of 90,000 yuan/ton, marking a 4.86% increase from the previous week [2] - The price increase is attributed to production halts in key mining areas, particularly by major player CATL, leading to heightened market speculation and bullish sentiment [2][4] Group 2 - The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials has surged due to the upcoming peak season for energy storage, with prices for both power-type and energy storage-type lithium iron phosphate rising significantly [4] - From August 11 to August 17, the average price of power-type lithium iron phosphate increased from 33,250 yuan/ton to 35,350 yuan/ton, while energy storage-type rose from 30,900 yuan/ton to 32,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 2,100 yuan/ton and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Despite the rising costs of raw materials, the overall price increase for ternary materials has been limited due to weak downstream demand [5] Group 3 - The article notes that while lithium carbonate prices have risen, the profitability of material companies remains under pressure due to simultaneous increases in raw and intermediate material costs [6] - Companies with inventory advantages or price-locking mechanisms are better positioned to withstand short-term impacts, while those closely collaborating with resource providers maintain relative stability [8] - For instance, companies like Deyang Nano and Fulim Precision have been actively securing upstream lithium sources to mitigate raw material cost fluctuations [8][9] Group 4 - In the short term, midstream companies are expected to face profit pressures, particularly those with low inventory or weak cost transfer capabilities [7] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations that lithium carbonate prices may peak and then decline after the current speculative surge [10] - As of mid-August, lithium ore inventories at trading ports increased to 27.8 million tons, indicating a potential supply cap on further price increases [12][13] Group 5 - The article also mentions that despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about a potential decline in lithium ore arrivals in August, which could further impact supply dynamics [15] - The domestic lithium salt factory operating rate increased by 1.55% week-on-week, with lithium carbonate production rising by 2.27% [17] - Overall, the market anticipates a supply-demand gap of -222 tons for lithium carbonate in August, indicating a tightening market [17]