Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded weakly. The weakening US dollar and the concentrated low inventory of LME zinc with signs of a squeeze contributed to the rebound of zinc prices both at home and abroad. However, due to the continued inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and insufficient downstream purchasing, the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was limited, and the rebound height is expected to be restricted [3][4][11] Summary by Directory Trading Data - From August 1st to August 8th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 22,320 yuan/ton to 22,515 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,729.5 dollars/ton to 2,834 dollars/ton, an increase of 104.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.18 to 7.94. The SHFE inventory increased by 4,193 tons to 65,917 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 19,325 tons to 81,500 tons, the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 113,200 tons, and the spot premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2509) rebounded weakly, with a weekly increase of 0.87%, closing at 22,515 yuan/ton. LME zinc also rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.83%, closing at 2,834 dollars/ton. In the spot market, after the zinc price rebounded, downstream purchasing weakened, and the market remained dull. As of August 8th, LME zinc inventory decreased, while SHFE and social inventories increased. In terms of the macro - environment, the US economic data was mixed, and domestic import and export data in July exceeded expectations with positive changes in inflation data [6][7][8] Industry News - As of August 8th, the average weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and that for imported zinc concentrates increased by 3.5 dollars/dry ton to 82.25 dollars/dry ton. Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government. Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q2 2025 was 251,600 tons, 19% higher than in Q2 2024, and its 2025 self - owned zinc production guidance was adjusted to 940,000 - 980,000 tons [12] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, price ratios, spot and LME premium/discounts, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, smelter profits, refined zinc production and import/export, and downstream enterprise开工率 [13][15][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers. Before the "232" investigation ends, the shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a slight surplus, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For aluminum, the current macro - positive and low - inventory situation support the price to run strongly, but the consumption off - season pressure limits the upside space, and it is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly, and the main reference range is 19200 - 20000 [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend. The inventory is in a destocking state, and the absolute level is low, providing price support. In the short term, zinc prices may rebound, but the fundamentals have not improved essentially, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - long term [8]. Nickel - Macro sentiment improves, but the cost support of refined nickel is loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. It is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Although the market sentiment has improved, the fundamentals remain weak. The bargaining range of nickel - iron continues to move down, and the cost support weakens. The production of stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 12200 - 13000 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand is difficult to boost. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 58000 - 64000 [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is 240.67 dollars/ton, down 79.16 dollars from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The 2507 - 2508 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread is 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.10 million tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. The refined zinc import volume was 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57820 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].