报告日期：2025 年 8 月 11 日星期一 中国国家统计局7 月31 日公布，受制造业进入传统生产淡季， 部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，7 月份中国制造业采 购经理指数(PMI)降至 49.3%。7 月份制造业 PMI 中，生产指数和 新订单指数分别为 50.5%和 49.4%，均比上月下降，制造业生产活 动继续保持扩张，市场需求有所放缓。铁路船舶航空航天设备、 计算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数持续位于扩张 区间，产需两端较为活跃。氧化铝厂开工率持续回升，氧化铝在 产产能逐步上升，氧化铝库存仍然处于低位。铝材产量同比增长， 铝合金产量连续多月快速增长。沪铝库存小幅下降，LME 铝库存 持续回升，国内电解铝隐性市场库存小幅下降。 【后市展望】 研究报告 铝周报 沪铝或延续震荡运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | ...

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] Core View - The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season, but there are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory shows signs of peaking. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season. The long - term supply is limited while consumption grows steadily. Alumina has a north - south difference in the spot market, with the south strong and the north weak. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating. Aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and its price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Aluminum Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,580 yuan/ton, and the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, also with a change of 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract on August 7, 2025, was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,750 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,725 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 564,000 tons, with no change from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 42,031 tons, a decrease of 631 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, an increase of 1,575 tons [2] Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,315 yuan/ton, and in Guizhou was 3,330 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 375 US dollars/ton [2] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main alumina contract on August 7, 2025, was 3,254 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,291 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,191 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - Profit - **Price**: On August 7, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,700 yuan/ton, also with a change of 100 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4] - **Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,065 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 165 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season. There are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods may have peaked. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season [6] - **Alumina**: The spot market shows a pattern of strong south and weak north. The warehouse receipt risk is basically released. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating [7][8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the off - season, and the price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [9] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is rated neutral, alumina is cautiously bearish, and aluminum alloy is neutral [10] - **Arbitrage**: Long the Shanghai aluminum calendar spread and long AD11 while short AL11 [10]

研究报告 铝周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 欧洲央行维持利率不变，沪铝或延续震荡运行 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 28 日星期一 欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，不干预任何汇率；关注贸易谈判 的路径；6 月的基准情景保持不变；目前通胀率为 2%，欧洲央行 处于良好位置；企业利润继续抵消工资上涨；薪资增长正在朝着 正确的方向发展，欧洲央行维持主要再融资利率在 2.15%不变。 中国财政部数据显示，2025 年上半年，全国一般公共预算支出 141271 亿元，同比增长 3.4%。国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发 布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》，拟 进一步明确不正当价格行为认定标准，完善低价倾销认定标准， 规范市场价格秩序，治理"内卷式"竞争。氧化铝厂开工率有所 回升，企业利润持续改善，氧化铝库存仍然处于低位。铝材产量 小幅上升，行业开工逐步改善。沪铝库存结 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers. Before the "232" investigation ends, the shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a slight surplus, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For aluminum, the current macro - positive and low - inventory situation support the price to run strongly, but the consumption off - season pressure limits the upside space, and it is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly, and the main reference range is 19200 - 20000 [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend. The inventory is in a destocking state, and the absolute level is low, providing price support. In the short term, zinc prices may rebound, but the fundamentals have not improved essentially, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - long term [8]. Nickel - Macro sentiment improves, but the cost support of refined nickel is loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. It is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Although the market sentiment has improved, the fundamentals remain weak. The bargaining range of nickel - iron continues to move down, and the cost support weakens. The production of stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 12200 - 13000 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand is difficult to boost. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 58000 - 64000 [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is 240.67 dollars/ton, down 79.16 dollars from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The 2507 - 2508 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread is 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.10 million tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. The refined zinc import volume was 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57820 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

研究报告 铝周报 沪铝或延续震荡运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | 电话：0931-8582647 | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 5 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 5.8%。从环比看， 5 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.61%。2025 年 1—5 月 份，全国固定资产投资 191947 亿元，同比增长 3.7%。其中，民 间固定资产投资同比持平。从环比看，5 月份固定资产投资增长 0.05%。铝土矿进口量环比大幅下降。全球氧化铝供需延续偏紧格 局。氧化铝库存继续增长，但仍然处于底部区域。沪铝库存加速 下降，库存水平处于近年来极低位。LME 铝库存小幅上升，电解 铝国内隐性市场库存延续下降趋势。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡趋势为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期， ...

Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report - Date: May 27, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1][2][3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. The main 2507 contract closed at 20,155, slightly down 0.05% from the previous trading day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,732 to 523,645 lots. Considering the approaching off-season and high smelting profits, the absolute price increase still restrains the end - users, so profits can be locked in at high prices [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Aluminum Price**: The main 2507 contract of aluminum slightly declined, and the index total open interest increased. Domestic social inventories continued to decline, and holders raised premiums. The LME was closed on the 26th, and there was no latest import profit - loss data [8]. - **Alumina Price**: Alumina prices dropped significantly by 3.77% to around 3060. The main reasons were the easing of disturbances at the Guinea ore end and the increasing expectation of partial capacity restart, which might push the operating capacity above 92 million tons in the next three weeks [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: On the supply side, there was little change due to the capacity ceiling. On the demand side, inventories decreased by 23,000 tons to 534,000 tons compared with last Thursday, supporting aluminum prices [8]. 2. Industry News - **Aluminum Plant Investment**: Emirates Global Aluminium plans to invest $4 billion in an aluminum plant in Oklahoma, USA, with an annual capacity of 600,000 tons of primary aluminum. Construction will start at the end of 2026 and be completed in 2030 [9]. - **Factory Closure**: Norsk Hydro will close its Birtley extrusion plant in the UK at the end of May, with an annual capacity of about 12,000 tons, affecting 100 employees [10]. - **Warehouse Expansion**: The London Metal Exchange (LME) has approved the addition of three warehousing facilities in Hong Kong, increasing the total to seven. The first four will start operating in July [10]. - **Mining Rights Policy in Guinea**: The transitional authorities in Guinea classified several mining rights as strategic reserve areas, including those for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, and graphite [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1][6][43] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2507 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 20,010 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 20,300 yuan/ton [3][10] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price fluctuated between 2,430 - 2,497 US dollars/ton [14] 2. Spot Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,410 yuan/ton, 20,585 yuan/ton, 20,435 yuan/ton, and 20,400 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium of electrolytic aluminum remained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [17] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In March 2025, the alumina supply - demand surplus was 30,000 tons, compared with a supply - demand gap of 110,000 tons in the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years. In March 2025, the cumulative supply - demand surplus of electrolytic aluminum was 277,200 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23] - As of April 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 20,684,045.16 tons, an increase of 4,225,390.6 tons from the previous month [29] 4. Inventory Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 141,289 tons, a decrease of 14,791 tons from the previous week. As of May 22, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 386,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly to 15.99% [33] - As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 36,000 tons, in Wuxi was 150,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 15,000 tons, in Foshan was 228,000 tons, in Tianjin was 21,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 56,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 7,000 tons [33] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The US Supreme Court made a ruling on a personnel appointment and removal appeal case of a federal independent agency, hinting that the status of Federal Reserve board members is special and will be specially protected from being dismissed by the president. The US bond yield curve steepened significantly, with the 30 - year Treasury yield breaking through 5%. The Japanese government bond yield continued to rise, and the 40 - year Treasury yield reached a new high. The global alumina supply - demand continued to be in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum market also showed a supply - demand surplus. China's bauxite imports increased rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased rapidly and was at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly [5][42] 6. Future Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [6][43]

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff policy is fluctuating, and the Fed's stance is hawkish. The macro - environment remains cautious. Given the current rapid inventory reduction, low absolute inventory, and rigid supply, there is strong support for the aluminum price at the lower end, and the aluminum price will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. As it enters the off - season, the pressure at the 20,000 - yuan mark will gradually increase, and the center of the aluminum price may shift downward in the second half of the second quarter [2][8] 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From April 11th to April 18th, 2025, the price of LME aluminum for 3 months decreased from 2397 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton; SHFE aluminum continuous three decreased from 19595 dollars/ton to 19590 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12175 tons to 434150 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12769 tons to 92475 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased by 87.6 yuan/ton to 16382.04 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased by 57.1 yuan/ton to 3345.46 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot was 19728 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average price of Southern Storage spot was 19736 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [4] - The US tariff policy has new developments, such as the exemption of "reciprocal tariffs" for some electronic products. Trump said he expected to reach a trade agreement with the EU. The Fed Chairman warned about the inflation effect of Trump's tariff policy. Economic data in the US, Eurozone, and China were released, with China's Q1 GDP growing by 5.4% year - on - year [5][6] - On the consumer side, the operating rates of domestic downstream aluminum processing industries are differentiated. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased significantly in the past two weeks. As of April 17th, aluminum ingot social inventory was 68.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.5 million tons from the previous Thursday, and aluminum rods were 22.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons [7] Market Outlook - The US reciprocal tariff has eased slightly, but it may still fluctuate. China's Q1 economic data is better than expected, and there is a high expectation of incremental policy implementation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum maintains high - start capacity, and the consumption is strong during the peak season. In summary, the aluminum price will oscillate in the short term and may decline in the second half of the second quarter [8] Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on China, and China has responded. In March 2025, China's aluminum product output was 598.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [9][10] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, and inventory seasonal changes [12][16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff measures initially caused market panic, but the extension of tariffs for most countries and good US inflation data eased market sentiment. The domestic expectation of loose policies remains high. The aluminum supply side mainly involves capacity transfer, with little change in operating capacity. On the consumption side, downstream aluminum processing enterprises have stable new orders and increased willingness to buy at low prices, leading to a significant reduction in aluminum social inventory. Although the risk sentiment has cooled, attention should be paid to the direction of China - US trade negotiations and potential tail - risks of tariffs. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19,500 - 20,000 yuan/ton, supported by factors such as low supply elasticity, seasonal consumption peak, and low inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price increased from 2385.5 to 2397 yuan/ton, SHFE aluminum continuous third contract decreased from 20330 to 19595 dollars/ton, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.3 to 8.2, LME spot premium decreased from - 31.71 to - 37.46 dollars/ton, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 14525 tons to 442225 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 26388 tons to 105244 tons, aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.1 tons to 74.4 tons, and aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.94 tons to 23.51 tons [4]. 3.2 Market Review - In the spot market, the Yangtze River spot weekly average price was 19758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 799.5 yuan/ton from last week; the Southern Reserve spot weekly average price was 19698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 824.5 yuan/ton from last week. In the macro - aspect, the US's tariff measures and the European's response affected the market. The US March CPI growth rate decreased significantly, but inflation may rise after tariff increases. The market is still cautious [5]. - In the consumption end, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 0.38% to 62.2%. The industry will continue the pattern of "demand stratification and profit reconstruction". Three variables need to be focused on, and the SMM predicts that the operating rate may drop to 61.5% next week [6]. - In terms of inventory, on April 7, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 3.0 tons compared with Monday and 2.1 tons compared with last Thursday; the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 1.29 tons compared with Monday [7]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The extension of tariffs by Trump has cooled the market risk sentiment, but attention should be paid to the China - US trade negotiation and potential tariff tail - risks. The fundamentals of low supply elasticity, seasonal consumption peak, and low inventory support the aluminum price, which is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19,500 - 20,000 yuan/ton [3][8]. 3.4 Industry News - In March, the retail sales of the passenger vehicle market reached 1.94 million, with a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 991,000, with a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 45%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 51.1%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The 350,000 - ton green - power aluminum project of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum and Electricity Company plans to complete the civil engineering in early July [9]. 3.5 Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third price trend, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [10][11][15].