新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-05 海外仓单风险持续 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为130.71美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化230元/吨至22580元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-90元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日230元/吨至22570元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-100元/ 吨；天津锌现货价较前一交易日250元/吨至22570元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-100元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-04沪锌主力合约开于22610元/吨，收于22670元/吨，较前一交易日185元/吨，全天交易日成交 150552手，全天交易日持仓116923手，日内价格最高点达到22840元/吨，最低点达到22595元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-04，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.17万吨，较上期变化0.03万吨。截止2025-11-04，LME 锌库存为33825吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 市场分析 目前冶炼厂原料库存可用天数下滑，叠加冬储需求，对矿端采购需求旺盛，海内外矿TC均出现明显回落，冶炼综 合利润被严重压缩，高成本地区面临亏损的窘境。供给端预期增速下滑，11月预期同 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-28 海外升水虽降但依旧高位 重要数据 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为187.37美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化20元/吨至22210元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-55元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日30元/吨至22220元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-90元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22210元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-55元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-27沪锌主力合约开于22250元/吨，收于22365元/吨，较前一交易日75元/吨，全天交易日成交 120077手，全天交易日持仓121184手，日内价格最高点达到22405元/吨，最低点达到22200元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-10-27，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.35万吨，较上期变化0.14万吨。截止2025-10-27，LME 锌库存为37050吨，较上一交易日变化-550吨。 市场分析 目前冶炼厂对矿端采购需求旺盛，矿端TC有望进一步下滑，进口矿TC依旧跟随顶部开始回落。当前冶炼综合尚有 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views - Pre - holiday downstream stocking and price decline boost spot market transactions, leading to a drop in social inventory, but the spot discount is hard to repair. The overseas and domestic markets deviate, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing, increasing the warehouse receipt risk and supporting prices, while the domestic market still has supply - side pressure and a cumulative inventory expectation despite the good consumption in the traditional peak season [4]. Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $59.64 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rises by 50 yuan/ton to 21,870 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rises by 60 yuan/ton to 21,890 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price rises by 50 yuan/ton to 21,870 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On September 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,935 yuan/ton and closes at 22,045 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 158,280 lots, and the open interest is 131,286 lots. The highest price is 22,060 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,890 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM is 150,400 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory is 43,800 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous trading day [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc fluctuate and decline, closing with a negative line and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. The market may experience short - term consolidation. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined but remained in the strong area, while the trend indicator showed that the long - side strength decreased and the short - side strength increased, with the two forces starting to stalemate. The Shanghai zinc ZN2510 is expected to consolidate [2][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons and consumption was 1130200 tons, with a surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons and consumption was 4507900 tons, with a shortage of 56500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1072200 tons, and from January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is a positive factor [2]. Zinc Basis - The spot price was 22265, and the basis was - 10, indicating a neutral situation [2]. Zinc Inventory - On September 16, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1175 tons to 48975 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 799 tons to 52170 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. Zinc Futures Market Quotes on September 16 - For various delivery months of zinc futures, prices, trading volumes, and open interests showed different changes. For example, for the 2510 contract, the previous settlement was 22305, the opening price was 22290, the highest price was 22370, the lowest price was 22245, the closing price was 22255, the settlement reference price was 22300, the price decreased by 50 ( - 5), the trading volume was 96641 lots, the trading value was 1077732.04, the open interest was 84991 lots, and it decreased by 7012 lots [3]. Domestic Spot Market Quotes on September 16 - Zinc concentrate in Lin had a price of 16850 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in Aoshi was 22265 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 4057 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in China was 4452 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22780 yuan/ton, unchanged; zinc powder in Changsha was 27450 yuan/ton, unchanged; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20500 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Taozhou was 7857 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Major National Markets (September 4 - 15, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 13.85 million tons on September 4 to 14.95 million tons on September 15. Compared with September 8, it increased by 0.97 million tons, and compared with September 11, it increased by 0.55 million tons [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on September 16 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange were 52170 tons, with an increase of 799 tons. Most of the increase came from the Guangdong region (specifically, Guangdong Jushen increased by 799 tons) [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on September 16 - The total LME zinc inventory was 48975 tons, a decrease of 1175 tons from the previous day. In Singapore, the inventory decreased by 1175 tons to 48875 tons [7]. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary in Major National Cities on September 16 - Zinc concentrate with a 50% grade in various regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, etc., had prices ranging from 16750 - 16950 yuan/ton, all down 10 yuan/ton [8]. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on September 16 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots (≥99.995%) from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Sea (22500 yuan/ton), Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry (22830 yuan/ton), etc., showed different levels [12]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 45.97 million tons, the actual production was 47.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 47.03 million tons [14]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on September 16 - Zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions with a 50% grade varied. For example, in Pailie, the lowest was 3800 yuan/metal ton, the highest was 4000 yuan/metal ton, and the average was 3900 yuan/metal ton. Imported zinc concentrate (48% grade) had a processing fee ranging from 85 - 105 US dollars/dry ton [16]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on September 16 - In the zn2510 contract, for trading volume, Guotai Junan ranked first with 31704 lots and an increase of 602 lots. For long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 5095 lots and an increase of 70 lots. For short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 11007 lots and a decrease of 1082 lots [17].