Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Report's Core View - Zinc alloy开工率下滑，隐性库存负反馈可能发生，锌锭社会库存小幅增长；TC整体稳定，海外锌矿发运量提升，供给压力不改；消费边际下滑，现货升水大幅回落，锌价上涨缺乏基本面驱动力，社会库存持续增加将形成较大向下压力 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - As of June 20, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 0.57% to $2,625 per ton compared to last week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.14% to 21,845 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$22.95 per ton last week to -$24.65 per ton [1] - As of the week ending June 20, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remained stable at 3,600 yuan per metal ton compared to last week, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates increased by $2 per ton to $55 per ton. Recent zinc ore tender results in North China were 5,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton compared to the previous period, and the New century zinc ore tender result was $40 per dry ton. The zinc ore import window remained closed, but overseas zinc ore departure data increased [1] - Specifically, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 1.46% to 58.6% compared to last week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 4.72% to 55.12%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.08% to 59% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major areas monitored by SMM was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last week; the warrant inventory decreased by 229 tons to 8,743 tons compared to the same period last week; the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 tons to 126,225 tons compared to last week [1] Profit - As of June 19, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was -500 yuan per ton, and the profit was about 1,000 yuan per ton after adding by - product income [2] Market Analysis - The operating rate of zinc alloy decreased significantly last week, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur, with a slight increase in the social inventory of zinc ingots. The TC remained stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume continued to increase. Although the room for further increase was limited, the strong trend remained unchanged. There was still smelting profit at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm was high, so the supply pressure remained. The overall consumption showed a marginal downward trend, the spot premium dropped significantly, and there was a lack of fundamental driving force for the zinc price to rise. If the social inventory continued to increase, it would exert significant downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-16 锌锭现货升水大幅度走低 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-22.27 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨60元/吨至22900元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至225元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至22880元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌90元/吨至205元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨60元/吨 至22900元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至225元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-15沪锌主力合约开于22885元/吨，收于22590元/吨，较前一交易日上涨70元/吨，全天交易日成 交152385手，较前一交易日减少66723手，全天交易日持仓99050手，较前一交易日减少5891手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22915元/吨，最低点达到22545元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-05-15，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.63万吨，较上周同期增加0.3万吨。截止2025-05-15，LME 锌库存为165175吨，较上一交易日减少1875吨。 市场 ...