Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Report's Core View - Zinc alloy开工率下滑，隐性库存负反馈可能发生，锌锭社会库存小幅增长；TC整体稳定，海外锌矿发运量提升，供给压力不改；消费边际下滑，现货升水大幅回落，锌价上涨缺乏基本面驱动力，社会库存持续增加将形成较大向下压力 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - As of June 20, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 0.57% to $2,625 per ton compared to last week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.14% to 21,845 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$22.95 per ton last week to -$24.65 per ton [1] - As of the week ending June 20, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remained stable at 3,600 yuan per metal ton compared to last week, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates increased by $2 per ton to $55 per ton. Recent zinc ore tender results in North China were 5,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton compared to the previous period, and the New century zinc ore tender result was $40 per dry ton. The zinc ore import window remained closed, but overseas zinc ore departure data increased [1] - Specifically, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 1.46% to 58.6% compared to last week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 4.72% to 55.12%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.08% to 59% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major areas monitored by SMM was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last week; the warrant inventory decreased by 229 tons to 8,743 tons compared to the same period last week; the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 tons to 126,225 tons compared to last week [1] Profit - As of June 19, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was -500 yuan per ton, and the profit was about 1,000 yuan per ton after adding by - product income [2] Market Analysis - The operating rate of zinc alloy decreased significantly last week, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur, with a slight increase in the social inventory of zinc ingots. The TC remained stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume continued to increase. Although the room for further increase was limited, the strong trend remained unchanged. There was still smelting profit at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm was high, so the supply pressure remained. The overall consumption showed a marginal downward trend, the spot premium dropped significantly, and there was a lack of fundamental driving force for the zinc price to rise. If the social inventory continued to increase, it would exert significant downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Zinc ingot spot premium has significantly declined, and the low inventory that originally supported zinc prices has shown signs of inventory accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, there may be room for the zinc price to fall. The consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline after May [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$22.27/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 205 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 152,385 lots, down 66,723 lots, and the position was 99,050 lots, down 5,891 lots. The highest price was 22,915 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,545 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 15, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 86,300 tons, up 3,000 tons from the same period last week. The LME zinc inventory was 165,175 tons, down 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Due to a large number of imported zinc ingots arriving, downstream procurement enthusiasm has declined, and the spot premium has further dropped. Zijin's Russian mine plans to shut down in June, and overseas production in Q1 was lower than expected, but the oversupply of zinc ingots is still expected. Although the TC increase is limited, smelting is still profitable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic imported ore inventory is sufficient, and short - term TC does not have the conditions to be lowered [4] - **Demand**: The consumption in May may face challenges. As the window for rushed exports is approaching the end and there has been over - consumption, there may be a month - on - month decline in consumption after May [4] - **Price outlook**: The low inventory that originally supported zinc prices has shown signs of inventory accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, there may be room for the zinc price to fall [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]