新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-05 国内锌锭库存持续增加 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为18.78美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日-270元/吨至21970元/吨，SMM上海 锌现货升贴水-65元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-260元/吨至21970元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-65元/吨；天 津锌现货价较前一交易日-270元/吨至21960元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-75元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-04沪锌主力合约开于22240元/吨，收于22120元/吨，较前一交易日-185元/吨，全天交易日成交 171243手，全天交易日持仓118873手，日内价格最高点达到22325元/吨，最低点达到22000元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-04，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.89万吨，较上期变化0.26万吨。截止2025-09-04，LME 锌库存为54750吨，较上一交易日变化-475吨。 市场分析 国内现货市场维持弱势运行，社会库存持续增加且无降速迹象，海外升水持续走强，库存持续下滑，内外供需矛 盾短期难解。国内基本面依旧偏弱势，虽然国产矿TC难涨，甚至可能小幅回落 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-04 市场分析 国内现货市场维持弱势运行，成交冷清，贴水低位稳定。但海外升水持续走强，内外供需矛盾短期难解。国内基 本面依旧偏弱势，虽然国产矿TC难涨，受甚至可能小幅回落，但冶炼利润犹存，国内供给压力依旧较大，8月锌锭 产量同比增加28%，消费旺季持续累库为大概率事件。但海外对价格形成有利支撑，一方面宏观向好，另一方面海 外锌锭供应收缩，消费平稳，海外库存持续下滑，贴水收窄，存在挤仓风险。当前锌锭绝对价格回落后下游采购 积极性好转，短期锌价维持中性判断。 策略 单边：中性。 套利：中性。 风险 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为20.44美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22240元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22230元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-80元/吨；天津锌 现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22230元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-80元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-03沪锌主力合约开于22250元/吨，收于22285元/吨，较前一交易日20元/吨，全天交易日成交 117964手，全天交易日持仓1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Zinc ingot spot premium has significantly declined, and the low inventory that originally supported zinc prices has shown signs of inventory accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, there may be room for the zinc price to fall. The consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline after May [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$22.27/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 205 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 152,385 lots, down 66,723 lots, and the position was 99,050 lots, down 5,891 lots. The highest price was 22,915 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,545 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 15, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 86,300 tons, up 3,000 tons from the same period last week. The LME zinc inventory was 165,175 tons, down 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Due to a large number of imported zinc ingots arriving, downstream procurement enthusiasm has declined, and the spot premium has further dropped. Zijin's Russian mine plans to shut down in June, and overseas production in Q1 was lower than expected, but the oversupply of zinc ingots is still expected. Although the TC increase is limited, smelting is still profitable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic imported ore inventory is sufficient, and short - term TC does not have the conditions to be lowered [4] - **Demand**: The consumption in May may face challenges. As the window for rushed exports is approaching the end and there has been over - consumption, there may be a month - on - month decline in consumption after May [4] - **Price outlook**: The low inventory that originally supported zinc prices has shown signs of inventory accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, there may be room for the zinc price to fall [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]