Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View - The domestic zinc market is weak with increasing social inventories and strong overseas premiums and falling inventories, making the supply - demand contradiction difficult to resolve in the short term. The domestic fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure, while the overseas market provides support. The current zinc price is judged to be neutral in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $18.78/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -270 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -260 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is -270 yuan/ton to 21,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of -75 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On 2025 - 09 - 04, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,240 yuan/ton, closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, -185 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a trading volume of 171,243 lots and a position of 118,873 lots. The highest price was 22,325 yuan/ton and the lowest was 22,000 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of 2025 - 09 - 04, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory is 148,900 tons, a change of 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 54,750 tons, a change of -475 tons from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The domestic spot market is weak, with increasing social inventories. The overseas market has strong premiums and falling inventories. The domestic fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure as the zinc ingot output in August increased by 28% year - on - year. The overseas market supports the price due to good macro - conditions and supply contraction. The short - term zinc price is judged to be neutral [5] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot market for zinc is running weakly with low - level stable discounts and cold trading, while overseas premiums are strengthening, and the short - term contradiction between domestic and overseas supply and demand is difficult to resolve. The domestic fundamentals are still weak, with high supply pressure due to existing smelting profits despite the possible decline of domestic concentrate TC. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year, and inventory accumulation during the consumption peak season is likely. However, the overseas market provides support for prices as the macro - environment is positive, zinc supply is shrinking, consumption is stable, inventory is falling, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. With the decline of the absolute price of zinc ingots, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved. The short - term zinc price is judged to be neutral [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $20.44 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,240 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 70 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan per ton [1]. - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,250 yuan per ton and closed at 22,285 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 117,964 lots, and the open interest was 104,733 lots. The highest price was 22,390 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,230 yuan per ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 3, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 146,300 tons, a change of 1,800 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 55,225 tons, a change of - 375 tons from the previous trading day [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Zinc ingot spot premium has significantly declined, and the low inventory that originally supported zinc prices has shown signs of inventory accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, there may be room for the zinc price to fall. The consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline after May [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$22.27/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 205 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 152,385 lots, down 66,723 lots, and the position was 99,050 lots, down 5,891 lots. The highest price was 22,915 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,545 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 15, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 86,300 tons, up 3,000 tons from the same period last week. The LME zinc inventory was 165,175 tons, down 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Due to a large number of imported zinc ingots arriving, downstream procurement enthusiasm has declined, and the spot premium has further dropped. Zijin's Russian mine plans to shut down in June, and overseas production in Q1 was lower than expected, but the oversupply of zinc ingots is still expected. Although the TC increase is limited, smelting is still profitable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic imported ore inventory is sufficient, and short - term TC does not have the conditions to be lowered [4] - **Demand**: The consumption in May may face challenges. As the window for rushed exports is approaching the end and there has been over - consumption, there may be a month - on - month decline in consumption after May [4] - **Price outlook**: The low inventory that originally supported zinc prices has shown signs of inventory accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, there may be room for the zinc price to fall [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]